Identifying NFL Underdogs and Parlays for Profit

Throughout the NFL season, we'll post pro football plays and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football parlay for profit underdog picks and plays, we'll take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway's Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we'll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and perhaps modify our Course management along the way.

An opening night upset by the big 'Dog Kansas City Chiefs (+9) proved once again the contrary nature of the NFL. A vast majority of bettors were willing to lay a big price at the sports books and eat chalk on the powerful Patriots. We cashed in on the Chiefs, but failed to take a shot on the juicy money line! Let's look for more opportunities every week and Shoot for more Birdies and NFL winners as we Fire for the Flag and Green with Fairway's Football Forecast.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking 'Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs can be very rewarding.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We'll add in some bigger 'Dogs along the way, but note too you can evaluate these selected teams and consider using them in your straight wagers and parlays without money lines. It's very difficult to hit an underdog money line parlay. But we'll provide the potential payoffs with a small wager each week along with a straight parlay. Straight win wagers are a far more prudent play, but I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score with less risk and want to parlay their profits.

So join Fairway's Foursome and follow along as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway's Football Forecast.

A number of line moves have taken some interested underdogs to favorites in week 1. Some of these very short favorites may be included in our parlays and plays along the way.

This week's – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

456 Chicago (+6.5/7) vs Atlanta – Bears Money Line +220
459 Philadelphia (-1) at Washington – Eagles Money Line -120
477 San Francisco (+5) vs Carolina – 49ers Money line +180
481 LA Chargers (+3.5) at Denver – Chargers Money Line +150

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $801
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

All four of our week 1 plays apply to this Week 1 NFL situation – and won with Kansas City Thursday night. Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS (61%) since 1999.

Atlanta at Chicago – The bad Bears are taking sharper action against last year's NFC Super Bowl entrant? The public is putting their money on the flying Falcon's offense, but getting this team outdoors on grass against the expected improved Bears at this price is playable. New QB's in Chicago, and the Bears defense will have to deliver. Some negative ATS situations against the Falcons include Super Bowl-losing teams from previous year are 2-15 SU/ATS in season opening games the past 30+ years. Additional non-division home 'Dog situations apply.

Philadelphia at Washington – The Eagles opened as a 3-point underdog and are now -1. Philadelphia had a better point differential than Washington last season, but the Eagles finished 7-9 last season with just one road win while the Redskins were 7-8-1 and swept the two games with the Eagles. Washington has now five straight in this series. Last year, QB Wentz started the entire season as a rookie. This year his improvement along with the Eagles will be tied to one of the best offensive lines in football with Lane Johnson healthy. I have the Eagles will solid edge rushing the football in this contest, which puts the ATS percentages further in our favor.

Carolina at San Francisco - New coach and culture significantly improved for new-look 49ers, and improved play will follow for one of last season's laughingstocks. But do you have the Balls to bet on this brutally bad 2-win team from last year? The running game won't Hyde this year with Carlos chugging along, and cerebral new QB Brian Hoyer is a good fit for coach Shanahan's complex offense and schemes, as those two worked together previously in Cleveland. The Panthers bit the bullet last year as Superman QB Cam dropped off the cliff from his MVP Super Bowl season. But they still managed to pound San Fran 46-27 in Week 2. Newton now opens 2017 with just 10 plays and one series under his belt in preseason, and he'll be passing and running with new rookie RB McCaffrey against an improved San Fran stop unit. Concerns with many changes, personnel and schemes in San Francisco and it may take some time to get the chemistry and results. But still, a contrary call on last year's sad San Francisco 49ers, who by the way, won their opening game each of the last two seasons as a home underdog.

LA Chargers at Denver – I believe the Broncos miss the playoffs this season, and the Chargers suffered numerous close defeats last season including opening week at Kansas City after blowing a huge lead. They have the more veteran and capable offensive backfield with QB Rivers and RB Gordon, and Rivers is an 80% ATS play as a road 'Dog in division games. He'll lead the Chargers to an improvement from 5 wins last season and it likely starts in Denver, where the Bronco's are 2-11 ATS hosting the Chargers. More passing than rushing success in this match-up, and that gives the 'new' LA a 'charge' and advantage. Monday night 'Dogs have been dynamite, barking loud and biting hard in Game 1 going 34-15 ATS since 1980 including 29-9 ATS taking 6 points or less. 

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your 'Dogs deliver the 'green'.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay