Identifying Underdogs and Parlays for Profit - NFL Week 7 Picks

We continue with our NFL picks, predictions and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football picks and predictions producing profit, we take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway’s Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we’ll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and modify our course management along the way.  

Do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers, including with your NFL Week 7 picks. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers. That said, we release these plays late in the week and can’t always provide the best numbers, but we’ll continue to chip-in our best to make more birdies and get the green.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth consideration, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright. Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio. We’ve had 9 outright underdog winners through 6 weeks.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. Since the point spread comes into play less than 15% of the time on games lined at 6-points or less, you should consider money line ‘Dogs along with your straight wagers which should be the focus. I’ll provide the parlay payoffs as I know many bettors like to risk less and win more, despite the odds against hitting a 3 or 4-team parlay.  

Fairway’s Football Forecast provides the picks and these leading online sports books offer the best experience and security to ensure you’re getting paid. Shop the best lines for NFL Week 7 games including leading reduced juice shop 5Dimes, hoping too for a positive ending for it’s owner Tony, who went missing after being kidnapped for ransom. 

454 Chicago (+3) vs New England – Bears Money Line +135
472 Washington (-1) vs Dallas – Redskins Money Line -120
474 San Francisco (+10) vs Baltimore – 49ers Money Line +350

$20 3-Team Money Line Parlay = $367
$20 3-Team Parlay = 120

New England at Chicago – The NFC North leading Bears (3-2) still a bit disrespected as a FG home ‘Dog to New England. Would the Vikings or Packers be getting 3 points at home against the Patriots? The Bears may be the divisions best team, despite having the worst quarterback. Yet QB Mitch Trubisky is completing 70% of his passes with an 11/4 TD-to-INT ratio and a strong QB rating of 105.8. He’s still not good at reading defenses and delivering under pressure, but the Bears have balance and will run to their strength this week. An emerging elite defense led by Khalil Mack will put pressure on QB Tom Brady, who passed for 340 yards last week as the Patriots survived a shootout 43-40 vs Kansas City on prime time Sunday night TV. But the Patriots defense is sub-par this season, and the Bears running game is in the top quartile while running the ball at 29 times per game to balance the attack. Chicago has rushed for at least 120 yards in four of five games this season and the Patriots allow 4.5 yards per rush. The Bears trailed 7-0 at halftime last week before rallying to lead 21-10 and 28-21 before wilting in the heat and humidity in Miami and losing in overtime 31-28. They allowed 5.2 yards per play through 3 quarters but more than 12.0 yards per play in the 4th quarter and overtime. A bounce back at home is in order for this running defensive ‘Dog. While I hear over and over how square bettors ‘can’t bet against’ the Patriots, they apparently forget that New England is already 0-2 on the road this season with lopsided losses as favorite at Jacksonville and Detroit. The Bears were bad last year and covered its first four home games as underdog. Now Chicago is on the rise and we cash in with the Bears.

Dallas at Washington – This is where we modify our game play a bit with our first play of the year on these pages on a team not taking a plus price. We’ll only include very slight favorites when we don’t have enough ‘Dogs to support and also when we like the match-up. Division-leading Washington (3-2) is not being given home field advantage, so they are considered the lesser team and thus an underdog. Dallas may even be favored by game time as well. But the Redskins bounced back last week on this field against Carolina following an embarrassing prime time Monday night loss at New Orleans. Now this huge rivalry with Dallas (3-3) in D.C. sets up well for the ‘Skins, who can run the ball often with Adrian Peterson and likely have Chris Thompson back to pose another receiving threat out of the backfield for QB Alex Smith. Dallas does have a top-2 rushing attack and the Cowboys dominated Jacksonville last week in a 40-7 route. But the Cowboys are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road where they have scored just 37 points. In a lower-scoring defensive duel, we side with the ‘Skins.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco – The look ahead advance line out of Las Vegas last week was Rams -12.5. The only undefeated team remaining is the LA Rams (6-0), who travel within the division to Northern California for this NFC West game. We had the 49ers Monday night in their near upset at Green Bay at this same price point, and while the perception of San Francisco is that of a poor team with the loss of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the reality is this team is far from an empty bag. Backup quarterback CJ Beathard has now been in the complex offensive system of coach Kyle Shanahan for a year, and its showed in his grasp and improved play. The 49ers profile on offense is still solid as they run the ball effectively for 142 YPG; 3rd in the league behind the Rams (154) with both teams rushing for 5.1 yards per rush. They can have success through the air against a Rams pass defense that has allowed 7.3 yards per pass without Aquib Talib in the lineup. The 49ers run defense matches the Rams, and LA’s passing attack will be minus WR Cooper Kupp (knee) this week. The 49ers Richard Sherman will limit Rams receivers Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods, and QB Jared Goff will rely on RB Todd Gurley even more this week. Los Angeles is traveling for the third straight week and has now failed to cover its last three games. The Rams are also in some negative technical situations as a 6-0 team traveling for a third straight week as favorite. San Francisco’s special teams are strong and after having opportunities to win as big ‘Dog against the Chargers and last week at Green Bay, the 49ers bring another big effort against the league’s best Rams.  

Best wishes in your Week 7 NFL picks.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay