Does NFL Preseason Week 3 Still Really Matter?



A preview of NFL Week 3 with insights into several games and why this week of the preseason is worth placing a few bets.

The best way to evaluate the ever popular Week Three importance of the NFL preseason schedule might still be observing the wagering lines. Say goodbye to those cookie cutter -3 and 37 point lines that were on the board for virtually every game to start Weeks One and Two. At least this week features numbers similar but nowhere near to what you might expect for a typical regular season card. Let us count a few ways why . . .

1. Real starters on the field for at least two to three quarters. Virtually all teams will put their projected starting quarterback in-play for an extended period of time with the first team offense. Also the defensive starters will be seeing equal to possibly more time

2. More imaginative play calling. Like a poker game, all offensive coordinators are supremely reluctant to show their hand during the pre-season, relying on the most boring, predictable offense to carry them through. You might see a bit more razzle dazzle and fireworks from the huddle or at least a few attempts.

3. Better defense. More talented and experienced defensive starters will be playing, allowing for more cohesion and confidence. That could negate the total points scored in some of these games.

NFL preseason football betting Week 34. Cut down day is next week. Despite there being another "meaningless" fourth pre-season game to play next weekend, the coaches and player personnel will take this game to make their last evaluations on the likely final 53-man roster. That means life and death opportunity for "on the bubble" players to prove themselves to make the guaranteed spots.

Game Proof / Preseason Week 3

LA Rams at Denver Broncos (-5) (O/U 42)
Entering the NFL pre-season all eyes were squarely on #1 draft choice Jared Goff, who most expected to start at QB for the Rams from Day One. However, projected backup Case Keenum has outplayed Goff for two straight weeks and the chance for Goff to start has been reduced to nil. The "LA Rams" still have a talented defense and top RB Todd Gurley is expected to play here for most of the game off an injury. But the glamour has subsided and the odds makers have remembered they will be playing the Super Bowl champ at home.

Obvious hole for the Broncos is no Peyton Manning, no matter how old. The up side is newcomer QB Mark Sanchez will be fighting for his life to prove he is the opening day starter and to keep his fading career going. Expect most preferred offshore sportsbookss to raise the line to -6 on this game by kick-off. Therefore, a wise bet to get down ASAP if you like Denver. Last week Sanchez and highly touted rookie Paxton Lynch combined for a 6-pack turnover game. Also not a bad idea to get your money down early on Under if you are inclined toward the Total as the first team Denver defense will be there for most of the game against an inexperienced Rams offense.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) (O/U 42.5)
There isn't one NFL team that has caused more disparity of opinion in the pre-season than the Cowboys. Maybe it was their misleading 41-14 romp over the Dolphins last week that had America's Team rooters dreaming of the Super Bowl again. Or back-up quarterback Dak Prescott's glowing 22 for 27 passing performance that had some comparing him to Roger Staubach. I think it's a prayer program to prepare IF Tony Romo goes down again to not chuck another season in Dallas. More overlooked was the smart move getting very dependable running back Alfred Morris from the Redskins in case #1 draft choice Ezekiel Elliot disappoints. Defense is there but overall, slowdown big star dreamers.

Dallas Cowboys preseasonFor Seattle the big test is up front, where the offensive line problems began to surface in last year's Super Bowl. Last week the Seahawks allowed six sacks including four to Russell Wilson, who played sparingly. This week Wilson is expected to go more than one half with all the starters. They will need to start clicking to regain confidence, which makes that O/U at 42.5 look inviting. I would expect the top offshore sportsbooks including Bovada, BetOnline and Diamond Sports to react to the public. We should see the Total at least at 43 or more by kickoff in another 'line is telling you something" indicator as the highest Total of the week. Especially high for a pre-season game.

It would be rare to see a team the caliber of the Seahawks to lose two consecutive games at home, pre-season or regular season. Question only of the spread in making this tricky. Key footnote that Cowboys WR Dez Bryant will not be playing due to a concussion sustained in practice on Monday.

It's Still August NOT September

Despite what's on the line this week (no pun intended) compared to the rest of the NFL preseason, let's not get carried away with comparing these games to a typical NFL regular season card.

Green Bay packers bettingFor example, the San Francisco 49ers are currently listed at -1 over the Green Bay Packers this Friday evening. Whether playing at home, the road or any place on earth, people would rob banks to wager Green Bay with points against San Francisco any other time. This is some kind of "wise-guy line", with most figuring every Niner has to impress new head coach Chip Kelly to secure a job. Conversely, don't look for Aaron Rodgers nor many key Packers to play for more than a quarter or so in a priority goal to get off the field uninjured. Still, no lock as the Packer subs are still very capable of winning here outright.

Overall, think of NFL Pre-season Week 3 as sort of a dress rehearsal for the show. You put on the same clothes, use the same actors and basically read a similar script. But it's just not close to the same as the real thing. Betting-wise it might be OK to take a nibble but please save your appetite for traditional dinner in two weeks.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.

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