Cubs Win! Beyond all curses, billy goats and fairy tales



Glenn examines the Chicago Cubs century long futility and offers up some advice on how to bet the 2016 World Series.

I had a dream last night. They filled Wrigley Field with 42,000 Steve Bartmans cuddling goats on their laps and the Chicago Cubs still won the World Series over the Cleveland Indians.

For those uninformed you may recall it was nerdy Steve Bartman who supposedly levied the Cubs with one of their infamous "curses" never to win the World Series back in 2003. This innocent, sad goofball allegedly interfered with a foul ball, causing the Florida Marlins to rally in the ninth inning, preventing the Cubs from entering their first Series since 1945.

The billy goat story began back in 1945 when an eccentric fan named Billy Sianis tried to use one of World Series seats for his beloved goat but was turned away at Wrigley. Allegedly, since then he's cursed the Cubs that they would never return nor win the World Series EVER. Long forgotten, but even the "Miracle Mets" got into the curse saga by sweeping the Cubs back in 1969.

emembered, was a black cat crossing home plate in one of the games as if part of a script.

It's Only Been 108 Years

Flash forward to this week and alas, part of the curse has been lifted. The Cubs are indeed in this week's World Series. Not only in it, but as a probative favorite at all preferred offshore sportsbooks.

The following is a current comparison World Series line per (3) major offshore sportsbooks before Game One:

World Series odds and predicitonsBovada
Cubs     -185
Indians +165

BetOnline
Cubs     -190
Indians +165

Diamond Sports
Cubs     -187
Indians +167

With no disrespect to the Cleveland Indians, who have their own demons to deal with, this seems like a reasonably competitive series while examining the wagering line. But keep in mind the Tribe have gone since 1948 themselves without winning a World Series. And in 1997, less than 10 years ago blew a 9th inning lead to a less than memorable Florida Marlins team to lose the WS. No talk about Bartmans, cats or goats in Cleveland. Wonder why? Are these fans just more focused on the Browns never getting to the Super Bowl? Perhaps just sh...t happens in life my friends.

But keep in mind the Cubs eclipsed the highest Total Over/Under for wins throughout the regular season posted back in April. The Cubs were listed at an O/U of anywhere from 93-96 wins by most sportsbooks and still cruised to an impressive 103 victories. The beat the Dodgers convincingly in the NLCS, including a final 5-0 shutout over arguably baseball's best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
Conversely, the Indians were just another team back before the regular season started. Though everyone jumped on the bandwagon around June 1st, there are hardly any perennial all-stars or 20 game winners on the team to count upon in the big dance. Why are the Chicago Cubs a solid but not a commanding, overwhelming favorite?

Never Been There, Never Done That

No doubt the betting public is still not totally convinced. And no one and I mean no one are more superstitious than gamblers. By logic, the Cubs should be at least -220 pre-Series favorites based on statistical baseball logic. But, like a routine grounder through Bill Buckner's legs, we are creatures of habit until PROVEN otherwise.

However, checkout the results affecting the line after Game One. Should the Indians win, and they're currently a slight +105/-115 underdog at Bovada, facing Cubs #1 starter Jon Lester, look-out. Curses and voodoo rituals may be back in place. Yet, a convincing Cubs win and that -190 price is going to look like holding a ticket on Hillary at Even money back in March. We always speak about great value on underdogs, but billy goats, Bartmans and 108 years of baseball futility have bought bettors a truly superb price here.

Get OVER It

Another overlooked value category for bettors could be in the World Series game total runs category. All major offshore sportsbooks feature the Over/Under as one of their major betting features.

Because all five games in the Indians-Blue Jays ALCS series fell under the total, it's likely bettors will be feeling a bit gun-shy. Also, the Cubs have scored five or more runs in seven of their 10 post-season contests this year but also suffered back-to-back shutout losses against the Dodgers. And in the "what have you done for me lately category", the Cubs final 5-0 victory over the Dodgers was also an Under winner for bettors.

Therefore, watch for some excellent OVER opportunities during the series. The Cubs line-up can score runs and once the Indians get beyond Lester and Jake Arietta, the Indians can also put numbers on the board. The biggest concern to those looking to bet Over might be IF the Indians get the lead. They've been superb all season long holding on to a lead and stingy surrendering runs.

A Worse Curse

And one last thing. Speaking of curses, given a choice I'm betting heavily on INDIAN CURSES. Nothing personal Indians fans, but Chief Wahoo and that grinning emblem has got to go in 2016. Should Cleveland win the series, it likely stays on the uniform forever. But I say lay all the wampum you can ASAP on a spectacular value price on the Cubbies to end a decade plus of misery.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.


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