A couple of old Southwest Conference rivals square off on Friday night when the SMU Mustangs (0-1) host the TCU Horned Frogs (1-0). The opening kickoff from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas Texas is slated for 8:00 PM ET. The contest will be televised by ESPN2.

At this present time (9/3), Bookmaker is displaying TCU as a 21.0-point favorite. None of the major offshore sportsbooks have posted a total as of yet.

Recent Series History

TCU has dominated SMU in recent years. Specifically speaking, the Horned Frogs have defeated SMU in each of the past 5 seasons, and they did so by a decisive margin of 31.2 points per game. As a matter of fact, SMU was held to 10 points or less on each of those occasions.

What Happened Last Week?

TCU opened their season last Saturday with a convincing 55-7 home win over Southern University. Granted, Southern is an FCS program, but it was a lopsided affair as should be expected. Despite the substantial victory margin, TCU failed to cover as a massive 50.0-point favorite. The Horned Frogs exhibited a balanced attack by rushing for 235 yards and passing for another 264. However, it must be noted, they ran the ball 42 times as compared to attempting just 21 passes. TCU forced 3 takeaways in the win while avoiding committing any turnovers of their own. The Horned Frogs defense allowed Southern to accumulate a mere 185 yards of total offense all day long.

The SMU Mustangs turned in a less than inspiring performance during last Saturday’s 46-23 loss at North Texas, and they didn’t come close to covering as a 3.0-point underdog. Making matters worse, the game wasn’t even as close as the final score may indicate. SMU trailed 36-0 after 3 quarters, and if not for the Mustangs scoring a pair of touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play, it would’ve resulted in an even more embarrassing result. The SMU defense allowed North Texas to rack up 529 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, the Mustangs offensive line permitted quarterback Sam Hicks to be sacked 9 times, and SMU generated a pathetic 4 rushing yards.

College Football Betting Angle

Any non-conference road favorite of 15.0 to 33.5-points (TCU) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 16 points or fewer, versus an opponent (SMU) coming off a non-conference away underdog ATS loss while allowing 35 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 1990.

Final Analysis

I seldom opt to bet on a college football road favorite, let alone one that’s laying these many points. I’m also a bit concerned about TCU entertaining #5 Ohio State 8 days after Friday’s night’s game, and it would seem to be a prime spot for a flat performance. Nevertheless, neither can I make a legitimate case for the home underdog. When it comes to college football betting, sometimes the best picks are ones you don’t make, and that’s precisely what I’ll be doing on this contest.