Baseball Playoff Betting -- A's Hoping Full Bullpen Attack Works vs. Yankees

  • In Charles Jay
  • Wed, Oct 3rd, 2018 5:26:36 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Oakland Athletics will go with a full bullpen strategy for their AL wild card playoff game with the New York Yankees on Wednesday.

The New York Yankees had 100 wins this season, while the Oakland Athletics had 97. Usually, these are the kinds of figures that would win division titles in Major League Baseball, but it only gets these two American League teams a ticket to the wild card game, which will begin at 8 PM Eastern time on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Remember that if you are a BetAnySports customer, you can place wagers even after the first pitch, as you access the state-of-the-art software from Live Betting Ultra.

The Yankees have the opportunity to choose between two starting pitchers for this game, and they are going with Luis Severino, who on an overall basis has been the best starter. Severino (19-8, 3.39 ERA) has been hot-and-cold since the All-Star break, with a 5.57 ERA, but he's been pretty solid in his last three starts and six at of his last seven. He's had a little bit of difficulty getting out of the first inning unscathed, with a 4.22 ERA, but it's in the fifth inning that he commonly blows up, as teams have a .320 batting average and .901 OPS against him.

Oakland MLB pickThe Athletics are going with a "bullpenning" strategy, the first time this has ever been employed in a playoff game. So the "opener" will be Liam Hendriks, the native Australian whose objective will be to get the first three outs clean. In his last eight outings, he has pitched scoreless first innings. Oakland manager Bob Melvin has eleven pitchers available, and don't be surprised if every one of them is used. Face it; this is an all-in strategy, and don't think the A's have not been planning this for a while now.

One thing both pitching staffs have to worry about the power on the part of the other team. The Yankee set the all-time major league record with 267 homers, while Oakland, in a more picture-friendly park, had 227 round-trippers.

In the baseball playoff odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Yankees are the favorites:

New York Yankees (Severino) -185
Oakland Athletics (Hendriks) +175

Under 8.5 Runs -120
Over 8.5 Runs +100

It's unclear as to what Yankee manager Aaron Boone's strategy is going to be regarding his starter, but even if he gets Severino out of there after four innings, he's got plenty of bullpen to work with. The Yanks have capable people like Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Dave Robinson, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman to choose from. And if he wanted to go with the bullpen strategy, he would be well-equipped.

NY Yankees MLB playoffsWhether he has a plan to use the whole staff, like Melvin might, remains to be seen. This is the true sabermetric play, taking "Moneyball" to the next level. Remember in the movie, where the Billy Beane character lamented that his approach to things didn't work in the playoffs? Well this actually might, because it's rooted in logic. They are going to put a lot of guys out there throwing hard, and no Yankee batter will see the same pitcher twice. Melvin will also take advantage of matchups as much as he can. And if Oakland moves on, that's not the last you'll see of this.

This kind of strategy can work when you have good people to fill the roles. Oakland and New York had about the same bullpen ERA, and they were right near the top of the American League. The most dominant Oakland reliever is Blake Trienan, who had nine wins, 38 saves an 0.78 ERA, and don't be surprised if Melvin uses them early in the game to snuff out a Yankee rally. That is definitely the new-wave approach to doing things.

We have a feeling that after a couple of days off, that's might be a little rusty, and because almost every hitter in this game will be facing a fresh arm (unless, of course, Severino went too long), you might see their timing off. Pitchers, especially if you use them in bulk, are often better as "sprinters," and the numbers definitely bear that out, so we wouldn't be surprised at all if runs were at a premium. With the total the way it is, we have no problem going UNDER, and we can also cite that the Athletics have been really outstanding when games have been tight. In fact, they are 31-14 in one-run games, and 25-11 in games that have been decided in the last at-bat. They play great defense as well, and one of those wizards, Matt Chapman, has been a very hot hitter after the All-Star break, leading the majors in doubles and extra-base hits. So we could go with Oakland as well, and make this a parlay.

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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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