Oscars picks and predictions

On Sunday bettors will have the opportunity to wager on The Oscars, which apparently will be aired without a host. That may not be a bad thing per se since most bettors really only want to see the awards being presented and collect their money rather than listening to comedians spew their generally unfunny monologues and listening to them rant about the current political scandals. Entering the year A Star is Born was viewed as the film to beat in every category, but it has quickly lost favor and hasn’t won anything for categories other than best song. Of course this is the fourth remake of the film, starting with a 1930s version where the rising star was an actress rather than a singer and more recently with Barbara Streisand and Kris Kristofferson playing the parts of the rising star and the fading superstar. So it seems clear that voters are just tired of the same old story.

For the longest time sportsbooks only offered odds on the main categories of best picture, acting and director, but in recent years they have expanded it to include all 24 categories being aired live. The first sportsbook to offer all categories was The Greek but now all offshore and European based sportsbooks provide odds. With that in mind here is a look at all the categories with odds from BetOnline.ag.

Best Picture

The winner of this category was usually more or less known well in advance, but a change in recent years to the voting process made it far more intriguing. Instead of the film with the most first place votes winning, it now is based on preferential voting where the first film to receive 50% of the votes wins. Each voter ranks films 1-8 with 1 being the most preferred. If no film gets 50% then the film with the fewest number of first place votes drops out and the 2nd choices of the voters who picked that film first becomes the new first place votes. If there is still not 50% for any film, then the new film with the lowest number of first place votes drops out and the 2nd choices of those voters becomes the first choice. This continues until one film surpasses the 50% threshold. As a result of the voting the most popular choice isn’t the film that always wins. There is an indication that The Revenant and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri had the most first place votes, but they had too many low votes, which eventually allowed Spotlight and The Shape of Water to win the award. So the key is to have a film that resonates with almost all voters to be in at least the top 3 picks.

Vice has no chance given the film’s topic about the revolted Dick Cheney, A Star is Born has no chance for reasons mentioned previously and Bohemian Rhapsody likely won’t win because it’s not the type of film that appeals to the majority of voters. In fact it will probably end up with the fewest first place votes in the first round. Black Panther likely won’t win as a superhero movie despite winning best cast ensemble at the SAG Awards and BlacKkKlansman is just too controversial. So here is a look at the other three films.

Roma (odds 2/9)

Pros: It’s had the most momentum over the last month and won the BAFTA award. It is a film that few seem to dislike and Alfonso Cuaron seems like a shoo-in to win best director.

Cons: No foreign language film has ever won best picture and it failed to win any North American major awards. Many also view the film as "too personal", since it’s about Cuaron’s mother and his life growing up, which although sentimental, may turn off some voters who don’t appreciate that sort of movie. Moreover, the movie was released on Netflix which a lot of experts think will be seen as a big negative.

Green Book (odds 7/2)

Pros: It won the Producer’s Guild of America award which is seen as the biggest predictor of the Best Film Oscar. Started in 1990, the PGA Award winner went on to win best picture at the Oscars 22 times out of 30 films, including The Shape of Water last year. Fortunately for other films, it also gave the award to La La Land and The Big Short the prior two years when the new voting format was introduced and neither of those films won. As well Green Book is viewed as "the best alternative" to Roma, the musical films A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody and the two 2 "Black" films of BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther which could cancel each other out.

Cons: Many people view this as reverse Driving Miss Daisy and say the plot is dull and not a true historical picture (mind you Ben Affleck took a lot of creative liberties with Argo too). Plus the film’s screenplay writer Nick Vallelonga apparently made an anti-Muslim comment years back claiming he saw Muslims cheering on 9-11 and has been praised by Donald Trump for those comments, which in Hollywood is a no-no.

The Favourite (odds 14/1)

Pros: Women seem to love it and it was highly touted in the UK winning the best British Film there. As well it could be one of those films that receives few first place votes originally but has a lot of second and third place votes which could move it up considerably in the latter rounds. So if there isn’t 50% for any film this one could become the favorite (pardon the pun) if it takes several drop outs to get a film to 50% first place votes.

Cons: It won’t garner the same intrigue with American voters who make up the majority of the Academy and it hasn’t won the top award at any of the main award shows.

Best Picture Prediction: Green Book will take the award despite the Muslim comments simply because it’s the best movie of an average lot.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron (odds 1/25)

There’s really no reason to look elsewhere. Spike Lee is the only other director with a chance for BlacKkKlasman but Cuaron has won every major award including the Directors Guild Award which has predicted over 95% of winners at the Oscars where the director was nominated. This is as sure a thing as it gets.

Best Actor

Originally this appeared to be Bradley Cooper’s award to lose, but he has lost at every major awards show entering this including the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the BAFTA Awards and most critics awards. Consequently it’s now a two horse race.

Rami Malek (odds 1/6):

Malek is cleaning up lately. He won the Golden Globe for best actor, the SAG Award, the BAFTA award and most critic’s awards entering 2019. His performance as Freddy Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody was spectacular and is viewed by even the biggest rock and roll haters as spectacular. In fact he made a decent film brilliant due to his acting alone.

Christian Bale (3/1)

Bale was good as Dick Cheney and in any other year he would have a chance. Unfortunately his performance was just not as renowned as Malek and a lot of the Academy won’t vote for Dick Cheney - even if it is just a character.

Best Actor Prediction: Malek will win the category easily

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Best Actress

Once again this looked like a shoo-in for Lady Gaga, who was terrific in A Star is Born. But voters are comparing her to Barbara Streisand and Judy Garland, who both played the same role. And Lady Gaga will probably suffer the same fate as Streisand – she is an accomplished singer basically just doing her job and pretending that she has risen from nothing. At least when Reese Witherspoon won for a similar type role in Walk the Line she truly was not a singer and thus her transformation in the role was remarkable. Consequently this comes down to two choices:

Glenn Close (odds 1/7)

Close is winning almost all the awards lately including the SAG award and the Golden Globe. She has never won best actress despite being nominated four previous times, so this could be seen as a retribution award along with rewarding her for a great performance.

Olivia Colman (odds 9/2)

Colman’s performance as Queen Anne was apparently quite good in the Favourite, but it was controversial, since this was seen as a movie where the top three actresses all had enough screen time and roles that they could have been nominated for best actress. In situations of an ensemble cast, one person rarely wins the big award. Colman did win the BAFTA award, but lost the SAG which is a better predictor for acting categories.

Best Actress Prediction: Glenn Close will win, although Lady Gaga was spectacular in her acting debut.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (odds 1/20)

He’s won almost every award this season, including the critic’s awards for the black man being driven around by Viggo Mortensen in Green Book and is a lock.

Best Supporting Actress

One of the more competitive categories of the night. Generally the SAG Award winner becomes the actress to beat, but Emily Blunt, who won the SAG, isn’t nominated. Here’s a look at the others.

Regina King (odds 2/5)

King won the Golden Globe, but wasn’t even nominated for the SAG. In the past when actors don’t get SAG nominations they rarely win the Oscar. Sylvester Stallone in Creed was the last obvious example. As well If Beale Street Could Talk was not as popular as other films.

Amy Adams (odds 3/1)

Adams has been nominated many times, but constantly loses. Critics and observers believe her performance in Vice just wasn’t that spectacular.

Rachel Weisz (5/1) and Emma Stone (20-1) are both nominated for their roles in The Favourite, although Weisz’s performance is more highly regarded. The two may cancel each other out, but as mentioned earlier, Olivia Colman, Weisz and Stone all could have easily been nominated for best actress.

Marina de Tavira (28/1) is the outsider for her role in Roma

Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Rachel Weisz will provide the biggest upset of the night repeating her BAFTA win.

Looking at the remaining categories, let’s first award the sure things.

Animated Feature Film will go to Spiderman: Into the Spider Verse (odds 1/20), Cinematography will go to Roma (1/20), Original Song will go to Shallow (1/25), Best Makeup and Hair will go to Vice (1/20), Best Visual Effects will go to Avengers Infinity War (1/6) and Animated Short will go to Bao (1/5 odds). Also, Costume Design will go to The Favourite at just under 1 to 4 odds, despite the relatively low odds on Black Panther.

The one "sure thing" missing from that list is Best Foreign Language Film. Roma is 1/20, but Amelie and Pans Labyrinth both lost the category at similar odds when nominated for best picture. A lot of U.S. Academy regulars do not vote in this category and leave it to the foreign voters and with Roma expected to win best picture, they may want to award a different film instead for foreign film. For that reason I’m predicting an upset and expect Cold War (the Polish film) to take this category at 6/1 odds.

Best Original Screenplay

The Writers Guild Award is the best predictor in this category of which film will win the Oscar. 14 of 20 winners of this award since 2000 have won the Oscar and most times when a film does not win the Oscar it is because it wasn’t nominated. That is the case this year as Eighth Grade won the WGA award but isn’t nominated for an Oscar. The films nominated are The Favourite (1/2), Green Book (9//4), Roma (7/1), First Reformed (12/1) and Vice (33/1). The Academy generally doesn’t give the award to the likely Best Picture winner meaning Roma is out and Vice has no shot. First Reformed is too obscure making it a race between The Favourite and Green Book. The Favourite won the BAFTA award but it the UK has a mediocre record predicting the winner of this award.

Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Green Book will win the award in a tight contest

Best Adapted Screenplay

This looked like a virtual lock for BlacKkKlansman (1/4) giving Spike Lee his award, but things were put into doubt when The WGA Award was given to Can You Ever Forgive Me? (9/2). If Beale Street Could Talk (5/1) has also garnered Oscar Buzz. For this category the WGA Award is almost a sure predictor of Oscar success with more than 90% accuracy. Since 2010 the only Oscar that didn’t go to the WGA winner was in 2013 when the Oscar went to Twelve Years a Slave which wasn’t nominated for the WGA Award. The BAFTA award went to BlacKkKlansman.

Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: With the huge correlation between WGA and Oscar success it’s hard not to bet on Can You Ever Forgive Me? at good odds.

Get more Oscars Odds here.

Best Original Score

This award seems destined for If Beale Street Talks (2/5 odds), but Black Panther (3/1) could pull off the upset. Black Panther won the SAG Award for best ensemble cast but it doesn’t seem in line to win any other awards.

Prediction: Black Panther pulls off the small upset winning one of its only awards

Best Film Editing

This award seems a toss up between Vice (1/1), The Favourite (2/1) and Bohemian Rhapsody (just over 3/1).

Vice is the film garnering the most attention because the Academy is worried it will lose all the other major categories, so this will be a consolation prize. Vice also won the BAFTA award  But the Film Editing Award (Eddie) is a great predictor of Oscar success and they awarded the prize to Bohemian Rhapsody. The Favourite has also been getting a lot buzz.

Prediction: Going with the Eddie Award and large odds I’m predicting a win for Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Production Design

The best predictor for this category is the Art Directors Guild Awards which hands out awards for contemporary film and fantasy film. Those awards went to The Favourite (2/5 odds) for contemporary and Black Panther (2/1). They are really the only two films with a chance. The Favourite won the award at the BAFTAs but Black Panther wasn’t nominated there.

Prediction: The Favourite will take this award as the Academy won’t give a design award to a superhero film.

Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing

Despite being separate categories they are more often than not given to the same film and the Academy relies on the sound industry awards to decide the winner. The Motion Picture Sound Editors awarded Bohemian Rhapsody the main award (odds 3/1), and the Cinema Audio Society awarded Bohemian Rhapsody (5/8) the award for best mixing. A Star is Born (6/5) won all the early awards for sound mixing but has lost a lot of spark for reasons mentioned earlier and it’s head scratching why First Man (4/7 odds) is favored for sound editing. BAFTA combines both into a category called best sound and they awarded Bohemian Rhapsody.

Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody will take both awards

Best Documentary Feature Film

This is a toss up between Free Solo (5/8) and RBG (6/5). Free Solo is about rock climber Alex Honnold and his attempt to climb a rock formation in Yosemite National Park while RBG is about Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The question is whether the Academy wants to award Ginsburg who has been controversial and is apparently in failing health.

Prediction: The award will go to RBG since the Academy will want to “stick it” to Trump who despises Ginsburg as well as payback for the SCOTUS appointment last year of Brett Cavanaugh.

Short Films

As usual for these films I turn to my friend who is a self described expert in these things and has a good record. His predictions are Bao (1/5 odds) for animated short, Black Sheep (10/11) for documentary short and Detainment (4/1) for Live Action Short.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!