AFC Wild-Card Preview -- Chargers Try to Be Road Warriors vs. Ravens

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 6th, 2019 9:51:39 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Baltimore Ravens, the AFC North champions, will play host to the Los Angeles Chargers in AFC wild-card round playoff action on Sunday afternoon.


The Los Angeles Chargers rebounded from a shaky start to go on a surge and make it to the AFC playoffs as a wild-card team. However, they have already lost at home to the Baltimore Ravens, which helped drive John Harbaugh's team to the AFC North title. So as you can imagine, their assignment is difficult, as they have to take a trip east and face the Ravens in hostile territory in the AFC wild-card playoff round. We are looking at a 1:05 PM ET kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. And if you are a BetAnySports customer, you can place wagers while the game is in progress, as you access the wonders of Live Betting Ultra.

Between these teams, the Ravens are the one with more post-season experience, and they are not at all fazed by going on the road. That was in evidence two weeks ago, when they went to the StubHub Center, the Bolts' temporary home, and came away with a 22-10 victory. They did quite a job on the Chargers' offense, holding them to a total of 198 yards. And they played some "smashmouth" as well, rolling up 159 yards on the ground.

Of course, the story with the Baltimore offense has changed over the course of the season. Joe Flacco, who took the Ravens to a Super Bowl, may have been a bit miffed when the team drafted Lamar Jackson in the tail end of the first round of the NFL Draft. We can't say for certain what the team had in mind at the time, but the fact that they made a trade to move up to select Jackson should have told people something. Flacco is rather stationary in the pocket, and though he has the cannon for an arm, he is vulnerable to opposition pass rushers. When Jackson replaced him, the dynamic changed, because opponents did not know quite what to expect. Jackson has indeed succeeded in making plays, and has rolled up 695 rushing yards. After six wins in the last seven games, the Ravens are back in the "tournament."

Ravens chargers free pickIn the AFC wild-card playoff betting odds on this game, as they have been posted at BetAnySports, the Ravens are the favorites at home:

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-120)
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (+100)

Over 42 points -110
Under 42 points -110

What we have here are a couple of teams that specialize in mental toughness. After starting out 1-2, Los Angeles caught fire, winning six in a row. And it was evident that the approach taken by Anthony Lynn, who wanted to bring this team back to running the football, was creating the kind of balanced offense that was going to make Philip Rivers more effective. There are few starting QB's in the league who are as clever as he is, and 8.5 yards per attempt indicates that he is, at any given time, either (a) getting the ball down the field, or (b) putting his receivers in a position where they have room to run after the catch.

There is no doubt that the Baltimore defense is an obstacle for the Chargers. They have held their opponents to 34% on third down, and are the stingiest when it comes to the "Big Play Rate," which represents plays that go for 20 yards or more. They limit yardage on both runs (3.7 ypc) and pass plays (5.7 per). And in those ways they have statistical edges over L.A.

But the Chargers are among the top three teams in the NFL when it comes to allowing points in the red zone (on a per-trip basis). And their pass rush is potentially much better than the raw stats show. That's important here, when you take a closer look at Jackson.

After all, the Ravens' quarterback is a rookie without little experience. In a sense, that can be a plus, but maybe not here. Remember, guys like Jackson, who are "dual-threats" in college, can come into the league and run around a lot, creating some havoc with the element of surprise. But then teams solve them. The Chargers just saw him a couple of weeks ago, which is going to make it less problematic to deal with him. Also consider that Jackson is not yet a polished passer (his 84.5 QB rating is easily the lowest of all this weekend's quarterbacks) and even with his added mobility, he has been sacked as many times (16) as Flacco, despite throwing 209 fewer passes. Certainly he holds the ball too long.

Rivers' experience is naturally a plus. And don't lose sight of the fact that the Chargers have lost only once on the road (that to their neighbors, the Rams), and have traveled to beat the likes of Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and the upstart Cleveland Browns. They have sufficient firepower and balance. And they are capable of getting the job done the second time around.

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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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