2015 Breeders' Cup Preview and Picks



A preview and selections for this year's Breeders Cup, the two richest days in horse racing.

This weekend represents the day every horse bettor and race fan looks forward to – the Breeders' Cup. The main story will focus on American Pharaoh and whether the first Triple Crown winner in almost 40 years can cap off his career with a win in the Classic. His loss in the Travers adds to the suspense as to just how good American Pharaoh really is. The other main story as always will be the rivalry between the European and American entries to determine which side of the pond is superior, particularly in turf races.

As has been the case for a few years now the Breeder's Cup will be run over 2 days with 4 races being run on Friday while the main races including the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Turf will be run on Saturday. The Classic will be run just as the sun is setting and the kids get ready to head out for Halloween. In this article I'll be examining each race with a predicted winner:

Breeders' Cup Friday Races

Breeders Cup betting previewJuvenile Turf:
On paper this looks like a 2 horse race between Airoforce who won both his races including a Grade 3 race over a yielding Keeneland course and Cymric who has been extremely impressive for Godolphin Racing in both Britain and France. The race, which has been run since 2007 has been owned by the Europeans. With the exception of Pluck in 2010 and Nownownow in the inaugural year every race has been won by European interests. Add to that the likely soft turf as a result of heavy rains in Kentucky and relatively cool temperatures, it's hard to see a Euro horse not winning this. For that reason alone I have to toss out Airoforce who really hasn't beaten much to date. The European horses in the field include Cymric, Birchwood who like Cymric is also owned by Godolphin and two Irish horses Shogun and Hit it a Bomb. The latter horse looks intriguing since like Airoforce he is 2 for 2 but his most recent win at Dundalk was on polytrack and his lone turf win was by the narrowest of margins.

My bets: I have a hard time looking beyond Cymric. If he arrives in good shape he'll be tough. He has one of the best jockeys aboard in William Buick and his near win just 3 weeks ago in a G1 race at Longchamp makes it clear he is in great form. The other European horses just don't match up and aside from Airoforce there's no American horse that looks dangerous.

Dirt Mile
Liam's Map is the even money morning line favorite and for good reason. He ran a great race in the Whitney just losing to Honour Code and beating Tonalist who are both running in the Classic and he wired everyone in the Woodward winning by open lengths. He is pure speed and very reminiscent of Ghostzapper who ran away with the Classic in wire to wire fashion in 2004. Bradester and Valid look like they'll challenge for the lead but having other speed horses in a race hasn't affected Liam's Map to date. Wicked Strong appears to be Liam's Map's biggest competition but he hasn't been able to handle the horse yet.

My bets: Use Liam's Map as a banker in all bets. It's difficult to see him losing this although anything can happen in a horse race.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Unlike the Juvenile Turf, American owners have had just as much luck as Europeans. The first 4 times the race was run American interests took it. In 2012 and 2013 the race was won by Europeans but last year Lady Eli brought the title back to the U.S. This race is intriguing since there's no clear standout unlike the first two BC races. Illuminate and Alice Springs seem to represent the best chances for the Europeans although Nemoralia is intriguing having raced adequately in Europe before coming to Belmont and just getting beaten in the Frizette. Catch a Glimpse has been impressive for Mark Casse at Woodbine but Canadian horses really haven't fared that well in the Breeders Cup. Harmonize, Sapphire Kitten and Thrilled appear to be the best American horses although Harmonize has gotten the better of the 2 in his last couple of races. That said she appears to be an all or nothing stretch run type of horse who may have trouble in this field.

My bets: Illuminate can't be overlooked with her form and Richard Hannon as the trainer. The only question is whether one mile may be too long considering all her races have been at 6 furlongs and she likes to lead. I have to include her although I'll also be tossing in Alice Springs who may appreciate the distance more and Thrilled who I believe may be a better horse at this distance than Harmonize.

Distaff
Without a doubt the owners must be thrilled to see that Beholder has opted for the Classic over the Distaff. If she ran here Beholder would be an overwhelming favorite as she has won 7 out of 8 races since romping in last year's Distaff. Wedding Toast is the morning line favorite for Godolphin Racing and rightly so. Since running in the U.S. she has been lights out including winning her last 3 races including two G1 races by a combined 11 lengths. Sheer Drama, Got Lucky and Stopchargingmaria appear to be the biggest competition and each horse has taken turns beating each other although I'm a Chatterbox has been very strong in her last 3 races.

My bets: Wedding Toast is a must for exotics, but I'm also going to toss in I'm a Chatterbox and Got Lucky, who appear to have the best tactical speed.

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Breeders' Cup Saturday Races

Juvenile Fillies
This race has traditionally been won by the favorites and there's no reason to expect anything different this year. The California invader Songbird has been outstanding with easy wire to wire wins in all 3 races. Her times have also been outstanding. Rachel's Valentine won her two races easily including an impressive win in the Spinaway and Nickname looked good in her wins although she was beaten easily by Rachel's Valentine early in her career and her romp on a sloppy track in the Frizette won't be a factor since Keeneland has polytrack. Taptoit appears to be the most likely outsider and can pull off the shock win if it's an extremely fast pace as she charges like a rocket at the end.

My bets: I'm banking on Songbird to run away and hide in this, given the lack of other speed in the race.

Turf Sprint
Easily the most wide open race in this year's Breeders Cup it's tough to pick a clear favorite. Bobby's Kitten won this race last year but has been dreadful in the 2 races he's run since. Undrafted just missed out to Bobby's Kitten in that race and then won a race at Ascot in England in June this year while finishing second in a lesser state at Churchill Downs in September. He'll be charging but leaves a lot of questions. The morning line favorite Lady Shipman has been very impressive but she's never faced the boys and is a speedster with no tactical speed. There are several other horses here that will challenge for the lead which could prove tough for her to hang on. Pure Sensation won his last 2 races but they were in cheaper company and when facing classier horses he has struggled. Mongolian Saturday, Ready for Rye and The Great War all look capable of an upset.

My bets: Undrafted has to be considered on his race at Ascot alone, while The Great War seems to be the type of horse who can lay just off the lead and run them down in the stretch. I'll also include Mongolian Saturday, who is a real upset opportunity with morning line odds of 15/1.

Filly and Mare Sprint
Judy the Beauty won this last year but is 0 for 3 since. She has been competitive but certainly can be beat. Cavorting is the morning line favorite thanks to 3 straight wins in New York including the G1 Test. Stonetastic has raced against these in the past and was never close and his last romp at Parx in a cheaper race hardly makes her a serious contender. The most intriguing horse, however, has to be La Verdad. She's won 6 straight including beating Judy the Beauty and is really one of few hear with blazing early speed. Her Beyer figures have been impressive too. Taris and Super Majesty also can't be discounted.

My bets: I'll be playing a fair amount on La Verdad, who I believe is the best horse in the field. I'll also be putting Cavorting and Super Majesty in exotics.

Filly and Mare Turf
This is a race that has alternated between European and American victors but there is a European horse in this field that stands out. Legatissimo has been very impressive this year culminating with a win over highly regarded Wedding Vow at Goodwood in August. She will take some beating. Stephanie's Kitten was second in this race last year and has been useful since including a win in her most recent race. Legatissimo's biggest competition should come from other European horses including Miss France trained by Andre Fabre and Secret Gesture who ran well in Europe before coming to America and beating Stephanie's Kitten in Beverly D Stakes at Arlington Park. Dacita did well in Chile and then won her first race at Saratoga but Chilean horses have not fared well in the Breeders Cup in the past.

My bets: Legatissimo will be keyed in most bets and exotics, although I'll toss in Secret Gesture, who I believe has a real chance at the upset.

Sprint
Always one of the most fun races on the card, this year's edition has a clear cut favorite in Private Zone. The horse finished 3rd in this race last year but has been almost unbeatable since. He has won 4 races since including the G1 Cigar Mile and the Forego stakes in a whopping 1:21 for 7 furlongs in August. He's had a rest and will be tough. The biggest competition appears to be Runhappy who romped in the King Bishop and Wild Dude who has been the best sprinter in California.

My bets: Private Zone will be tough and must be included, but I'll also include Wild Dude, who can run down Private Zone if Runhappy forces Private Zone to set a ridiculously fast pace.

Mile
This is a race that usually goes to the Europeans and there are 4 from overseas that tower above the rest. Make Believe has been impressive in all his races with the exception of the St. James Palace at Ascot where he had troubles and lost to Gleneagles who will be competing in the Classic. But Make Believe is a serious contender and has Andre Fabre training him. Esoterique, also trained by Fabre has been getting better with each race and won two significant stakes races in France and England, and Time Test has won some significant races in England although he struggled on soft turf at York which could be a concern if the weather makes the turf slow. Impassable also looks strong although she's never faced this caliber of horses before. Mondaliste ran overseas and then went to Woodbine in Toronto where she flew home to win the Woodbine Mile but she didn't beat much in Europe. The one American horse that is intriguing is Tepin who has been quite impressive and is a shock with a 12/1 morning line.

My bets: I'm taking 2 European horses with Make Believe and Time Test and I'll throw a flyer on Tepin.

Juvenile
Nyquist has been the best 2 year old in California including 4 straight wins. His wins have not been by large margins and he does have a tendency to run green at time which is a concern. Swipe has chased Nyquist each time and hopes to turn the tables although that is unlikely. Brody's Cause is the morning line favorite after 2 huge wins coming from the back of the pack but big one run horses don't usually win this race. Greenpointcrusader is intriguing after winning the Champagne despite troubles in the race and can't be discounted. Riker is undefeated at Woodbine and could upset although as mentioned Canadian horses haven't fared all that well in the Breeders Cup although Dance Smartly did win for Canada as a juvenile filly. Waterloo Bridge will be flying the colors for Europe and no doubt Aidan O'Brien is hoping for a Dayjur type upset but there's nothing to indicate he can compete with these.

My bets: I'll be keying on Nyquist and Greenpointcrusader. I don't expect Brody's Cause to ever be competitive in the race.

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Turf
This race almost always goes to the Europeans and there is a real standout this year in Golden Horn who will almost certainly win horse of the year in Europe. He won 3 of the biggest races in Europe with the Epsom Derby, Juddmonte International and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He seems to do just as well on firm or soft turf. This race does have a tendency to be unkind to Arc winners but that's generally when the Breeders Cup takes place in California or Florida where European horses find it hard to deal with the heat and very hard turf. That shouldn't be a problem this year. Golden Horn's biggest competition will probably be Found who has done well in Europe but has been beaten by Golden Horn on a couple of occasions by big margins.

My bets: I'll be banking on Golden Horn for all my exotics. If he loses so will I.

Breeders' Cup Classic
The race everyone will bAmerican Pharoah Breeders Cupe waiting for. American Pharaoh will be the favorite thanks to his Triple Crown victories, but he can be beaten. Beholder has proven everything she can against the fillies and now will be looking to beat the boys in the biggest race. She did romp against male horses at the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in a mind blowing 1:59 3/5 for 1 ¼ miles and she has the best Beyer figures. She also may have a bit of an advantage over American Pharaoh given her 5 years of age compared to 3. She will hope to emulate Zenyatta, who beat the boys in the Classic and she has every chance of doing so. The biggest competition to the two will be Tonalist who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup leading into this, Honor Code who has won some significant races and Keen Ice who upset American Pharaoh in the Travers although Pharaoh beat him in all 3 Triple Crown races. Gleneagles also has a chance as a European invader although the distance may be a bit far for him.

My bets: I'm keying on Beholder to win one for the girls, although I'll throw in American Pharaoh in exotics and the pick 6 just to be safe. UPDATE: With Beholder now out of the Classic, American Pharaoh is strictly the horse to beat. He is well rested and has sharp works. It's doubtful that Keen Ice will be able to duplicate his Travers upset and Tonalist's Jockey Club Gold Cup win almost looks like a fluke. American Pharaoh has to be a banker in all exotics

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!


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