Preview and Picks for NCAA Football Week 9
More big games headline the Week 9 college football schedule on Saturday, Oct. 26. I provide more Top 25 coverage in Forbes, and add the Top 25 games with picks and analysis below at Off Shore Gaming Association. That includes SEC leaders No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M and Big Ten's No. 1 Oregon hosting No. 20 Illinois. Five total Top 25 matchups also includes No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy in East Rutherford, NJ. Two other SEC matchups includes No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama and No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2), who cracks the Top 25 for the first time since 2013 - the second-longest droubt of all Power Conference teams.
A Thursday night ACC contest features Syracuse at No. 18 Pittsburgh, who remains undefeated at 6-0 but 2-0 in conference play and still looking up at SMU (3-0), Miami (3-0) and league-leader Clemson (5-0). The Pitt Panthers get their shot at SMU next Saturday, Nov. 2 and host the Clemson Tigers on Sat., Nov. 16.
I will be at the big Mountain West showdown Friday night in Las Vegas when No. 17 Boise State (5-1, 2-0 MWC) tackles UNLV (6-1, 2-0). Boise State and Heisman Trophy favorite RB Ashton Jeanty are the Group of 5 leaders and favorite to make the College Football Playoff. But the Broncos must still win out with their 37-34 Week 2 loss at No. 1 Oregon a minor blemish thus far.
Last Saturday's Week 8 schedule proved to be a significant one, and our Pick on Tennessee (+3.5) beating Alabama 24-17 headlined another winning week. A 2-0 result on Top 25 matchups Picks and Opinions and 4-2 ATS overall (2-0 Top 25 picks, 2-1 overall).
Week 9 Top 25 Picks And Matchups
College football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern and betting favorites (-) listed. For bettors interested in reduced juice sportsbook options, checkout BetAnySports and Heritage Sports, which also offers cash back bonuses getting the 'most squeeze for your juice." Odds and spreads below from BetOnline.
Thursday, Oct. 24
7:30 p.m. | No. 19 Pitt (-5) vs. Syracuse | ESPN
Friday, Oct. 25
No. 17 Boise State (-3) at UNLV, 10:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Saturday, Oct. 26
No. 1 Oregon (-21.5) vs. No. 20 Illinois, 3:30 p.m. | CBS/Paramount+
No. 2 Georgia | Bye
No. 3 Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. | NBC/Peacock
No. 4 Ohio State (-25.5) vs. Nebraska, 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 5 Texas (-19) at No. 25 Vanderbilt, 4:15 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 6 Miami (-21) vs. Florida State, 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 7 Tennessee | Bye
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. (-2.5) | ABC
No. 9 Clemson | Bye
No. 10 Iowa State | Bye
No. 11 BYU at UCF (-1.5), 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 12 Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. No. 24 Navy, 12 p.m. (in East Rutherford, New Jersey) | ABC
No. 13 Indiana (-6.5) vs. Washington, 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network
No. 15 Alabama (-17) vs. No. 21 Missouri, 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 16 Kansas State (-10) vs. Kansas, 8 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 18 Ole Miss (-20.5) vs. Oklahoma, 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 22 SMU (-12) at Duke, 8 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 23 Army | Bye
Others receiving votes: Washington State 46, Syracuse 15, UNLV 5, Duke 2, South Carolina 1, Nebraska 1, Liberty 1.
Check out my recent college football article with stats and insight on teams with stronger, balanced offenses. Use as a handicapping tool to isolate more winners, as we did in Week 8 on Tennessee with their 200 Club offense both rushing and passing for at least 200 yards per game. Currently 12 such teams do so in college football with Ole Miss, Kansas, Oregon State, Arizona State and Notre Dame also on the cusp of joining the elite group of Power Four conference teams that run and pass for 200+ yards per game - Tennessee, Ohio State, Penn State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Clemson, Wisconsin plus Boise State, New Mexico, Jacksonville State and Liberty.
Syracuse or Pitt?
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 24, 2024
PFF’s Week 9 College Football Preview⬇️https://t.co/MREFE52Spm
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Navy (6-0) is 1-of-10 teams still undefeated in FBS college football. That ends Saturday, as the Midshipmen have played one of the softest schedules in the nation while racking up 44 points per game (No. 4 in country). Navy, along with UNLV, also is +12 in turnover margine (No. 2 in country) Credit to Navy's new offensive coordinator for dynamic plays and calls with QB Blake Horvath rushing for 10 TD's and a 10-1 TD/INT ratio. Toughest challenge for Navy against Notre Dame's top 5 scoring defense allowing less than 12 points per game and Irish' near 200 Club offense. Opinion Notre Dame.
Illinois at Oregon
Oregon is the new No. 1 team in the country, but the Ducks don’t quite have the underlying statistical profile to merit the top spot. Illinois (6-1) cashed for us last week outright as home 'Dog vs. Michigan, and this is too many points to spot a legit, well-coached team whose only loss was 21-7 at stronger Penn State taking back 19 points against the stronger Nittany Lions running game. Opinion Illinois.
Missouri at Alabama
Pick Missouri, as we've pointed out for weeks that Alabama (5-2) is overrated and now 0-3 ATS run after a fortunate win over Georgia. Sure 'Bama has won 19-straight SEC home games. Those best days are past with a now more deficient 'Bama defense. Alabama was also a -8.5 favorite before the season on the lookahead live vs. Mizzou. Now Missouri is 6-1 with a better record than 'Bama, and Tigers were a top-10 team in Sept before blowout loss at Texas A&M. Mizzu now taking back 17 points? Give me a break! SEC road 'Dogs are 14-3 ATS this season, including 13-2 ATS in conference games (one of those losses was Mizzu as 'Dog at A&M).
Texas at Vanderbilt
Wow, the projected worst team in the SEC to start the season has cracked the Top 25 in October! What goes up must come down, and good things only last so long against the cream of the crop, even with Texas off their first loss of season in a 30-15 beatdown by Georgia Bulldogs. Opinion Texas.
LSU at Texas A&M
Seems like a tough call, and Texas A&M was a 41-10 winner for us on this field Oct. 5 over that Missouri team we mentioned above. But LSU fits solid profile of top team, and SEC road 'Dogs are 14-3 ATS this season, including 13-2 ATS in conference games. We cashed with LSU last week but Tigers injuries and situational spot favors home team at Kyle Field. A&M projecs for stronger running game and 200 club offense also passes for 205 yards per game. First place showdown between only unbeaten teams in SEC play. Lean Texas A&M.
The Sunshine State matchup between No. 6 Miami (-20.5) and Florida State is one-sided. The Seminoles have won three in a row over the Hurricanes, including a 45-3 blowout at Hard Rock Stadium in 2022. Last year the Hurricanes had a slight yardage edge 355-322 but lost 27-20 as a 14-point underdog. A FIVE (5) TD swing from last year's betting line when FSU was ranked #4 and Miami unranked. Miami is 7-0 with a Heisman favorite QB in Cam Ward and +271 yards per game average over their opponents while SFU is 1-6 and -97 ypg. Ward continues to look like the best quarterback in America this year with an 83.4 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade in last week's win.
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin, and the Badgers are 14-2 ATS as a conference home 'Dog with a .700 or greater win percentage, including 13-0 ATS as a 'Dog of more than 2 points. Badgers have a 200 Club offense, both rushing and passing for at least 200 yards per game. But Wisconsin lost badly in two step up games vs. Alabama and USC, and can only lean their way.
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Other Picks and Opinions
Pick: Kansas (+10) at Kansas State
Pick: Washington (+6.5) at Indiana
Pick: Central Florida (UCF, -1.5) vs. BYU
Opinion: Oklahoma +20.5 at Ole Miss
The Washington Huskies and the Indiana Hoosiers are only 2-of-12 remaining teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) this season, outgaining all opponents they've played. Indiana is 1 of only 3 FBS teams to rank top-10 in total offense and defense. But Washington was rated (much) higher than Indiana at the start of the season, and would have been near a TD favorite. Now we're getting more than a TD with the Huskies with a top-tier defense and No. 1 pass defense. That's a bet, including moneyline, with a few +7's also available.
In-state Big 12 rivalry and Kansas (2-5) has suffered numerous close losses this season, but still have a stronger, balanced offensive attack averaging 195 yards per game both rushing and passing this season. So does Kansas State, but this game projects to be closer than double-digits despite Wildcats 13-2 ATS run at home vs. Big 12 teams.
The time is right for BYU (7-0) to fall from the ranks of unbeatens after their 38-35 last second escape and win last week over Oklahoma State. Now hitting the road, BYU runs into Central Florida team that lost at Iowa State last week by the same 38-35 score - the Knights 4th straight loss. But the Knights led that game into the final minute as a +13.5 point 'Dog. New UCF QB Jacurri Brown and running back RJ Harvey combined for 350 rushing yards and 4 TD's in that contest, and are ready for redemption.
Oklahoma was +6 on the preseason lookahead line in this game at Ole Miss. Sooners (4-3) have mostly sucked, or really sucked on offense ranking near bottom in yards per play. So this week Sooners head coach fired OC Seth Littrell, and UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is being mentioned as a candidate to replace him this offeseason. Oklahoma has lost all three step up SEC games by double-digits. Mississippi's (5-2) emotional OT loss to LSU last week sets up a little letdown.
Check back Saturday for more updates, analysis and information you can bet on.
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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.