Betting tips for the NBA and NHL playoffs

NHL Underdogs on Huge Money-Making Run

NHL Playoff money line underdogs of +100 or greater have gone 135-146 (48.0%) since 2016. Those underdogs produced a massive +13.1% return on investment. Hypothetically, by risking $1000 on each of those 181 money line dogs it would’ve netted you a profit of $36,880.

Furthermore, during these 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs to date (4/24), money line underdogs are 25-20 (55.6%) and have produced a massive 30.8% rate of return. If one were to have risked $1000 on all 45 of those money line dogs, it produced them a $13,880 profit thus far. Now that’s not a bad couple of weeks at the office.

NHL Lower Seeds Standing Tall in First 2 Rounds

During the 2016 through 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, lower seeded teams playing in the first 2 rounds of playoff action have won 12 of 36 series.

During this current postseason, lower seeds have captured 4 of 7 first round series. Additionally, the #1 seeds in first round action have lost all 3 series which have been completed, and another between Carolina/Washington is currently deadlocked at 3-3. All in all, #1 seeds in 2019 have gone a dismal 6-15 at this juncture.

Let’s put those results into proper perspective, and in turn compare them to that of the NBA Playoffs. From 2016 through 2018, NBA Playoff higher seeds have dominated by winning 30 of 36 series played during the first 2 rounds. During that precise time frame, #1 seeded teams have gone 32-6 (84.2%) in first round games. Conversely, NHL #1 seeds have gone 39-27 (59.1%) over that identical span. Keep in mind, under the most current NHL Playoff format, there are four #1 seeds compared to 2 in the NBA, hence a greater amount of games being played.

NBA First Round Cash Cows

There’s been little drama when #1 and #8 seeds square off in the opening round of an NBA Playoff series. From 2016 through 2018, the top seeds have gone 24-6 (80%) straight up in those 1st round games. The results in 2019 have held true to form with #1 seeds Milwaukee and Golden State going 7-1 so far.

Now let’s get serious and focus on money making opportunities against-the-spread. I’m going to broaden the betting parameters to how NBA #1 and #2 seeds do during first round action. Since 2016, those top 2 seeds have gone an extremely profitable 49-25 ATS (66.2%) as favorites during 1st round games. There’s not only little suspense on who might win those matchups, but these games also present a high probability of which teams will cover.

If you are looking ahead for additional money-making opportunities, those top 2 seeds have gone 16-11 ATS (59.2%) as favorites during 2nd round games. Not quite as productive, but certainly a winning percentage that’s more than acceptable.

Money Talks with NBA Postseason Road Chalks

I had to look twice in disbelief after running this specific query through my NBA handicapping software database. Since the 2016 NBA Playoffs, and up to the time of this writing, NBA Playoff road favorites have gone a remarkable 37-14 ATS (72.5%). Going one step further, if those road chalks were laying 6.0-points or more, they improved to 12-2 ATS (83.3%). I’m sure there are plenty of squares who are grinning from ear to ear after reading this. Just be forewarned, it’s just a matter of time before this thoughtless betting system cools down.

Final Thoughts

I must remind you, all the NBA and NHL postseason betting data I’ve presented in this article reflects playoff games played since 2016. That’s not to say there’s no credence in what these results have shown. Nonetheless, it’s a relatively small sample size of ascending money line and ATS betting algorithms. In my professional opinion, the parameters are just too straightforward to withstand the test of time at such a highly successful rate. If you put the proverbial gun to my head, and in regards to profitable long-term results, I would prefer intelligent calculated risks on Stanley Cup money line underdogs supplying a better return on investment, compared to that of betting NBA postseason favorites.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com