Quarterback Rotations and ATS Results in Preseason Play
Preseason football has started and it's time to evaluate the quarterback rotations and understand the influence and reaction in the betting market based on QB play and rotations. See the chart below for QB depth charts, and review my preseason strategy article.
Home teams often get favoritism, but not quite as often and the results in recent seasons may surprise you. Preseason home teams are just 65-62 SU and 55-70 ATS with a few pushes. Last year in 2016, three of the four weeks of preseason games saw 8-8 SU results. A strong majority off all the totals posted at the sports books are 40 points or less, except in the 3rd preseason game when the starters often play more than half the game.
Last year, all 16 preseason games in week 3 had a posted total of 40 or more points, yet totals went just 4-10 over/under with a pair of pushes.
In week 4 of preseason action last season, totals went just 5-11 last year, so take note that even with nearly all totals posted below 40 points in the final preseason game, motivation and scoring tends to be less as few starters see much action and the importance of players staying healthy and the start of the regular season takes precedence.
Many preseason games will be lined between 1-3 points, and often favoring the home team. The linemaker is also unsure of what to expect in these preseason 'evaluation' games. Yet last year, 10 of the 16 games in week 1 were decided by 6 or more points.
Looking for value in the betting line is always key and something sharp bettors employ when betting numbers, not teams. In preseason contests with more games lined from 1-3 points, it becomes imperative that you seek out information and understand the intricacies of preseason football and the variances in betting and results. Consider reducing your risk and amount wagered if you're betting preseason football, but be willing to 'up the ante' and make a stronger play if you feel the information and situation warrants a bigger bet. These games may be meaningless to many observers, but for the players competing for a livelihood and roster spots, and coaches looking to identify the next Dak Prescott, the games are in fact quite important. And if the bookmaker is willing to take the risk by posting a betting line, you can be sure that bettors, and especially professionals, are looking for every edge imaginable in evaluating the games and betting lines.
2017 NFL Preseason Quarterback Depth Charts
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