When to buy a half-point betting on NFL football
There are different schools of thought as it applies to key NFL point-spread numbers. Subsequently, there are varying theories on when to pull the trigger on buying a half-point. Personally, I keep it simple, and choose to stick with the most common numbers of 3.0, 7.0, and 10.0.
This Season’s Data
There’s been 63 NFL games played during the first 4 weeks of this season, and 18 of those contests have been decided by either 3, 7, or 10 points. Putting those results into perspective, 28.6% of all games played this year have landed on these trio of key numbers. What’s even more impactful, 25 of those 63 games closed with a point-spread of 3.0, 7.0, or 10.0 which translates to 39.7% of the time.
Upon further review, there were 15 NFL games played last week, and 7 of those contests were won or lost by exactly 3 points. Furthermore, there was one contest decided by precisely 7 points and another by 10. That equates to 60% of last week’s contests ending with victory margins of exactly 3, 7, or 10 points.
Case in point, the Rams closed as a 7.0-point home favorite in last week’s Thursday night game versus Minnesota, and they went on to win 38-31. Regardless of which team you bet on, by buying an additional half-point it would’ve averted a push and resulted in a winning wager. Remember, the juice only counts when you lose!
Granted, it requires you to lay approximately 10 to 15 cents more juice when buying a half-point, and it discourages many NFL bettors from doing so. Nevertheless, if bettors religiously buy a half-point when it comes to NFL point-spreads of 3.0, 7.0, or 10.0, then they’ll unequivocally discover it to be a profitable investment over the long haul.
NFL Week 5 Betting Odds
There are 15 NFL games on this week’s NFL slate starting with Thursday’s contest between Indianapolis and New England. Ironically enough, according to Bookmaker, New England is currently a 10.0-point home favorite. By the way, there’s been 5 of 63 games played this season that resulted in a 10-point winning margin. As a matter of fact, after scanning all the major offshore sportsbooks NFL Week 5 betting odds, there’s an eye catching 11 games that either have a point-spread of 3.0, 7.0, or 10.0, and that calculates to 73.3% of this week’s card.
Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com