The 2023 NFL Week 4 lookahead lines are out ahead of the Week 3 games, and the projected betting lines are worth monitoring as you watch and wager on the games and your Week 3 picks.
These NFL Lookahead Lines or advance lines can be useful in not only projecting ahead to next week’s games and lines, but also to keep you from over-reacting to one game or the upcoming games results.
That can especially be the case following Week 1 results, as fans and bettors try to figure out how the 2023 Super Bowl favorites Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills all lost as betting favorites in Week 1. Also, the over/under game totals went 4-12 in Week 1 with the 16 games averaging just 41.0 points per game. The oddsmakers at the online sportsbooks made adjustments to the Week 2 totals, and then NFL teams exploded with 16 games in Week 2 averaging 49.75 PPG and over/unders going 13-3 - the most overs in a week since 1990.
Week 3 Market Moves and Adjustments
Some of the key Week 3 spreads with notable adjustments from the Week 3 lookahead lines include: (Lines and betting data from BetOnline)
- Cleveland -4 to -3 vs TEN and total 41.5 to 39.5
- Jacksonville -7.5 to -10 vs HOU and total 45 ot 43.5
- New England -1.5 to -2.5 at NYJ and total 38 to 36.5
- Denver at Miami (-6.5) and total 45.5 to 48
- Detroit -4.5 to -3 vs ATL
- Dallas -10.5 to -12 at AZ and total 42 to 44
- Kansas City -10.5 to -12.5 vs CHI and total 50 to 47
- Las Vegas PK to -2.5 vs PIT
- Cincinnati -7 to -1.5 vs LAR and total 46 to 43
Early NFL Week 3 bet count— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 19, 2023
74% SF -10 v NYG
52% MIN pk v LAC
75% TEN +3 @ CLE
54% JAX -9 v HOU
84% NE -2.5 @ NYJ
74% GB -2 v NO
77% MIA -6.5 v DEN
82% BUF -6.5 @ WSH
52% ATL +3.5 @ DET
56% IND +8 @ BAL
78% SEA -5.5 v CAR
79% DAL -12 @ AZ
59% KC -12.5 v CHI
53% PIT +2 @ LV
NFL Week 4 Lookahead Lines
Week 4 look ahead lines include seven division games headlined by Miami at Buffalo and Baltimore at Cleveland in the early Sunday games. The Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas will be a heavily-bet late afternoon game with bonus cash for bettors hitting the 'over' and the highest game total of the week. Over/under game totals lso included.
|NFL Week 4 Games||BetOnline||SuperBook|
|Detroit at Green Bay (Thu)||PK 'em and 46||PK 'em 46|
|Atlanta vs Jacksonville (London)||JAX -3 and 45||JAX -3 and 45.5|
|Miami at Buffalo||BUF -3 and 50||BUF -3 and 50.5|
|Minnesota at Carolina||MIN -3 and 44.5||MIN -3 and 44|
|Denver at Chicago||DEN -2.5 and 44||DEN -1.5 and 44.5|
|Baltimore at Cleveland||BAL -1.5 and 44.5||BAL -2.5 and 44.5|
|Pittsbutgh at Houston||PIT -4 and 40.5||PIT -4 and 41|
|LA Rams at Indianpolis||LAR -1 and 44.5||PK 'em and 44.5|
|Tampa Bay at New Orleans||NO -3 and 42||NO -3.5 and 42|
|Washington at Philadelphia||PHI -7 and 44||PHI -7.5 and 44.5|
|Cincinnati at Tennessee||No Line (QB Burrow)||PK 'em and 42.5|
|Las Vegas at LA Chargers||LAC -4.5 and 50||LAC -5 and 49.5|
|New England at Dallas||DAL -7.5 and 42.5||DAL -7.5 and 43|
|Arizona at San Francisco||SF -14.5 and 41||SF -15.5 and 42|
|Kansas City at NY Jets (SNF)||KC -7 and 43.5||KC -7.5 and 44.5|
|Seattle at NY Giants (MNF)||SEA -1.5 and 44||SEA -1.5 and 44.5|
As you evaluate, watch and wager and live bet on the Week 3 games, be sure you review box scores, impactful injuries, misleading stats and meaningful data from each week's results. From there you can see where the bookmaker posts the following week’s lines on Sunday and Monday, and compare them to the lookahead lines and market moves during the week.
For example, teams that ran the ball at least 30 times in a Week 2 game went 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, and are now 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS. Only the Browns and Eagles failed to cover despite huge rushing yards edges of 198-55 and 259-28. Running back Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending knee injury for the Browns in defeeat, and the Browns dominated the stats 408-255 and first downs 20-9, but 4 turnovers were the difference in defeat.
Teams that suffer a -3 or greater turnover differential are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS with the Vikings (4-1 TO deficit) getting the late backdoor touchdown to steal the cover over Eagles backers.
How to use Lookahead Lines
Advance NFL lookahead lines provide a sneak peak at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from top online sportsbooks like BetOnline provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.
The tendencies for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.
Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential over-reaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.
As you become more astute in your evaluations, betting and handicapping, you'll be able to use your skills to project and time the market better and make more +EV bets ahead of market moves.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.