Remaining Top Seeds Sweet Sixteen Tips and Trends

The brackets are updated for the Sweet Sixteen and all four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are still dancing during the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Betting is big at the leading online sportsbooks during March Madness, and favorites delivered for more public bettors in the round of 32 going 15-1 SU 11-5 ATS with more bettors riding the favorites and cashing in. The top seeds in the South and Midwest regions along with East and West are delivering for their betting backers as well going 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS while keeping many bonus bets for NCAA Tournament futures alive. 

No. 1 seeds won the NCAA Tournament five straight years and six of the previous seven years until No. 4 Connecticut won it all in 2024. The Huskies (31-8) also snapped a streak of the previous seven NCAA Tournament winners having no more than seven (7) losses including No. 2 seed Villanova (2016) during that stretch.

So #1 seeds are now 89-27 SU in the Sweet Sixteen (1-4 last 2 years, 0-5 ATS) after both Houston and Alabama were beaten as greater than 6-point favorites last year by a pair of No. 5 seeds. No. 1 Kansas was knocked off in the Round of 32 last year and No. 1 Purdue was taken down by a No. 16 seed in the opening round for the second time in NCAA Tournament history. 

No. 1 seeds are 74-27 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5 (1-4 last 2 years, 0-5 ATS). Until 2015, #1 seeds were getting bounced out of this round going back to 2010, but in the last eight editions (not including 2020 with no tournament) #1 seeds are 19-5 SU (0-2 last year) and 14-10 ATS (0-2 last year) in the Sweet Sixteen. That included a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS run from 2015-2017 (or 9-0-1 as Gonzaga line closed 3 in 2017).

Top Teams Scoring Margin

There is another statistical profile that points to #1 seeds being more vulnerable to losing against a #4 or #5 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. It's a solid situation that uses scoring margin as another criteria in pointing to Sweet Sixteen winners. Top seeds Connecticut and Houston have the highest scoring margins this season.

- No. 1 Connecticut (+17.7)
- No. 1 Houston (+16.4)
- No. 1 Purdue (+14.4)
- No. 1 North Carolina (+11.8) 

- No. 2 Arizona (+15.7)
- No. 2 Iowa State  (+14.3)
- No. 2 Tennessee (+12.0)
- No. 2 Marquette (+8.7) 

- No. 3 Illinois (+11.2)
- No. 3 Creighton (+11.1) 

- No. 4 Duke (+13.3)
- No. 4 Alabama (+9.8)

- No. 5 Gonzaga (+14.7)
- No. 5 San Diego State (+7.4) 

- No. 6 Clemson (+6.6)
- No. 11 NC State (+4.0) 

Top #1 seeded teams with a scoring margin of less than 14 points per game are more likely to get knocked off by a #4 or #5 seed. That makes North Carolina (+11.8) more vulnerable than Connecticut (+17.7), Houston (+16.4) or Purdue (+14.4) with all scoring margin stats updated through the opening two rounds of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

Last year both No. 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen had a scoring margin greater than +14, and both Alabama and Houston lost. Two years ago, No. 1 Gonzaga had a +21.8 scoring margin and lost to No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen. So all bets are off on the No. 1 seeds but both North Carolina and Purdue better be prepared for more scoring and have a game plan to defend. North Carolina will try to slow the highest scoring team in the country in Alabama (91.3 PPG) and Purdue' takes on top-10 scoring Gonzaga (83.9).

Purdue also ranks top 10 in scoring offense averaging 83.2 points per game and the Boilermakers have a superior strength of schedule (SOS) and stronger adjusted defensive efficiency than Gonzaga (16 vs. 40). Arizona (87.6) and Illinois (84.6) are the other top-10 scoring teams in the country who remain in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The defensive dominators and best scoring defenses include Houston (57.7 PPG), Iowa State (61.3) and Connecticut (63.9) with all three of those teams also ranking top-10 in the country in defensive FG% (HOU 37.8%), UCONN (39.5%), ISU (40.2%) and top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (ISU 1, HOU 2, UCONN 8) along with North Carolina, San Diego State and Arizona. 

More Sweet Sixteen odds, matchups and picks in my NCAA Tournament coverage at OSGA and additional information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is recognized as a leading sports betting analyst providing insights and information you can bet on here at OSGA. Follow him on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting news and insights.