BetOnline customers who were looking at the situation at the outset of the season might not have predicted that the Florida Gators would have had to win their annual in-state rivalry game with the Florida State Seminoles in order to qualify for a bowl game, especially considering the way that FSU finished up the 2022 regular season.

But here we are, and this state of affairs has a particular sting to it in the wake of Florida's last-second loss to Missouri last week. They let victory slip through their hands because the defense could not stop Mizzou on a fourth-down play. So they have no one to blame but themselves.

Oh, and they lost their quarterback in this whole process. Graham Mertz, who had compiled some outstanding numbers after transferring from Wisconsin, broke his collarbone, and freshman Max Brown, who performed admirably late in the game, will be the pilot going forward.

But if the Gators don't win against Florida State on Saturday night, they won't be going forward any further. They have a 5-6 record, and you need six wins to get to a bowl.

Okay, that's their story. And FSU has a story of its own. The Seminoles are sitting with an 11-0 record, and they were in great position to get to the four-team college playoff playoff. But early in last week's contest against North Alabama, quarterback Jordan Travis, who was a legitimate contender for the Heisman Trophy, suffered a leg injury that ended his season.

Despite their undefeated status, which includes a berth in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) title game, FSU has been dropped from #4 to #5 in the playoff rankings, behind Washington. And now they have to not only win, but look impressive, if they want to vault past someone (perhaps Ohio State) to ultimately get to the "final four."

This game kicks off at 7 PM ET In Gainesville.

And in the NCAA football betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, Florida State is the favorite on the road:

Florida State Seminoles -6.5
Florida Gators +6.5

Over 49.5 points -110
Under 49.5 points -110

Brown is a redshirt freshman who beat out a four-star recruit, Jack Miller, for the backup job. He has completed ten of 12 passes. He also ran sevcen times for 42 yards against Missouri. He has played baseball too, and was a member of Florida's team that went to the College World Series.

QB Tate Rodemaker has been in the FSU system for a while. That's because he flipped a commitment to South Florida and became Mike Norvell's first signee in Tallahassee in 2019. He is a redshirt junior, having appeared in 23 games but starting only one. That was a game he'd like to forget, as the 'Noles lost 20-17 to Jacksonville State. Rodemaker wound up being benched in that game in favor of Travis, and thus began FSU's upward spiral.

But the staff insists that he has "taken ownership" of the offense and is ready to go. In the game where Travis got hurt, FSU got behind 13-0 to North Alabama (no typo there). Rodemaker completed 13 of 23 passes for 217 yards. And the Seminoles scored 58 consecutive points against an outmanned opponent.

So we are not sure what any of this means, except that Rodemaker has a lot more experience in FSU's system than Brown has in Florida's. And you know what - maybe that means a whole lot here. We say that because if you go down the roster, Florida State has more talent than Florida.

Yes, Napier has proven himself to be a capable underdog as a head coach (19-10 ATS), but this is a tough emotional spot, with the way that win escaped them last week. Will being in the Swamp make up for it?

What Brown brings to the table here is the ability to run with the ball. So studying the Gators on tape is different with him than with Mertz. That's a challenge for the FSU defense.

Florida State has not played the most daunting schedule in the world. And on that list, they could have lost to either Duke or Miami if circumstances were just a little different. So they haven't necessarily behaved like a wrecking crew. And Florida, after battles with the likes of Georgia, LSU and Missouri, won't be intimidated.

Yes, Florida ranks low among the nation's FBS teams in pass defense categories like yards allowed per attempt (8.6). And they have given up more pass plays of 40 or more yards than any other team. But Rodemaker would have to execute better than he did against North Alabama to exploit that.

If FSU goes with a more conservative game plan, keep in mind that the Gators have been rather permissive against the run too, allowing five yards per carry.

They also yielded 41 points per game over their last five.

After evaluating both sides, the conclusion is that we'll go with the higher overall talent level and the more experienced quarterback, not to mention a team with a chip on its shoulder. So we'll lay the points (yes, even in the Swamp).

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