Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Picks Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL free pick series looking for value plays and underdogs every weekend. Fairway's Football Forecast examines four games, including the Chargers/NY Giants matchup and the San Francisco at Indianapolis game.

Identifying NFL Underdogs and Parlays for Profit in Week 5

The NFL bye week schedule starts this week with the Falcons, Broncos, Saints and Redskins getting a week of rest. We enter Week 5 off a strong 3-1 result in Week 4 on these pages with a pair of outright underdog winners and a near overtime miss on the 49ers in our weekly Pro Football Forecast focusing on underdogs. That runs the mark to 10-6 ATS and producing profit thus far. Still searching for our first 4-0 sweep and parlays for profit.

I encourage you to do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking 'Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs at the sports books can be very rewarding.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We'll add in some bigger 'Dogs along the way, and also modify our course and game selection management with a few favorites less than 2 or 3 points if needed. Evaluate our selected teams and match-ups, and play them straight and with parlays as interested. Of course, a portion of your wager should be considered on the money line with selected underdogs of interest.

While it's very difficult to hit an underdog money line parlay, we'll provide the payout should you consider, and we've had feedback and winners from players who bet a 3-team money-line parlay and straight parlay that cashed already this season. Straight win wagers are a far more prudent play, but I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score with less risk and want to parlay their profits.

So join Fairway's Foursome and follow along as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway's Football Forecast.

Sunday and Monday shows 11 games lined at 3-points or less, and it's a tougher week for me to have some strong suggestions on underdogs of interest. Let's take a shot and see if we can get some turnovers to go our way and secure some close wins.

This week's picks and plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

451 LA Chargers (+3) at NY Giants – Chargers Money Line +150
455 NY Jets (+1 or PK) at Cleveland – Jets Money Line +100
460 Miami (+3) vs Tennessee – Dolphins Money Line +140
461 San Francisco (+1.5 at Indianapolis – 49ers Money Line +105

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $472
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$200 – Suggested side wagers with $40 Money Line are suggestions for this sample. $1,000 in play each week.

New York Giants betting previewLA Chargers at NY Giants – The line was +3.5 and now +3 (Even) for the Chargers, who enter on a 1-8 ATS slide after we cashed in against them with the Eagles as 'Dog last week on these pages. We also had the best number (+3.5) into the weekend on these pages in the Chargers 3-point opening week loss at Denver. Learn and earn. The new home in LA is filled with fleas, and the Chargers (0-4) travel East for an early start without a win yet this season. But waiting for them is the winless Giants (0-4), who have performed even worse. Sure the Chargers continue to find ways to lose, and the bigger concern is a suspect offensive line that's provided RB Gordon little running room. But LA is still above average on offense through four games averaging 336 YPG and 5.8 yards per play following last week's 398 yards and strong 7.5 yards per play vs. the Eagles in defeat. The NY Giants #31-ranked rushing attack (59 YPG) is on pace to be one of the worst rushing attacks of any team since 2000. The Giants average 5.2 yards per play, which is below average. New York is on pace to have the worst running attack of any team since 2000 according to some metrics. The Chargers have struggled stopping the run, but that shouldn't be an issue this week vs. New York. Both defenses are near identical in stats with similar schedules that have rated tougher than average. Rivers has thrown for over 1,100 yards and 7.4 yards per pass, and he's also 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in his career vs. NFC East opponents. The Chargers are also 9-1 SU/ATS away following consecutive home games. Both special teams units have performed poorly, but the Chargers could at least have a win or two with a few made kicks from their rookie kicker. The Chargers defensive front with Bosa and Ingram should put more pressure on Manning, as they rank #3 in getting to the QB, but teams are passing the least of any team against Los Angeles. The Giants will have to pass plenty this week, and Eli will be feeling the pass rush. In a game that will have plenty of flying footballs, we strike with the Bolts.

NY Jets free pickNew York Jets at Cleveland – I'm throwing out the stats, to a degree, and tossing in some comments on crappy Cleveland. The worst organization in football is now 1-19 in their last 20 games. In fact, the Browns are 2-28 in their last 30. And the Browns are favored this week! Okay, a pick em in places. Are you kidding? From their awful upper management and coach, who has to be held accountable for personnel, coaches, preparation and play calling, to yet another clueless QB they drafted too high (or at all), this clueless crap in Cleveland can't figure it out. One bad QB after another, Kiser, Osweiler, Hogan, Griffen and now last year's Cleveland QB Josh McCown starts against them for the Jets this week. Cleveland's coaches said in week 3 of the preseason that rookie QB DeShone Kizer wasn't ready to be a starter in the NFL. So there he is starting every game and the Browns are getting exactly what they deserve. The clueless kid has the league's worst QB rating (50.9) and has thrown a league-high 8 INTs in four games. But wait, they've played three of the worst teams in the league to start the season, the Bengals, Colts and Ravens, and still have no wins! Read coach Hue Jackson's comments this week about getting paid and being pros and you'll see how clueless Cleveland really is. The Jets have won 2 in a row and were far more dominant that the overtime score suggests last week, rushing for 256 yards and passing for another 215 in a 23-20 win over Jacksonville. Sure New York was carved up on the road at Buffalo and Oakland. But about those rushing stats and the Jets likelihood to have success against the Browns. Cleveland is 0-21 SU and 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 games in which they surrendered 100 or more rush yards. In a game few will want to bet, let's bet against the Browns, and especially at this price point.

Tennessee Titanss betting previewTennessee at Miami – Check status of QB Marcus Mariota for the Titans, as he's a game time decision (hamstring). We'll play the road weary Dolphins in their home opener either way after tons of travel to start their unsettling season. The Titans will be running the ball often regardless of QB Cassel or Mariota. Dolphins league-worst offense has little appeal, but they too will turn to RB Ajayi to get the ground game untracked and he should deliver this week. After two horrific offensive games, the 49ers got things going in a new system, and the Dolphins should have more success this week at home against a Titans defense that was destroyed last week by the Texans 57-14 allowing 173 rushing yards on 42 attempts.

San Francisco 49ers free pickSan Francisco at Indianapolis – We cashed in with the 49ers last week on these pages in a game they should have won before losing in overtime 18-15 at Arizona. That's 3-straight division losses by 3-points or less for San Fran. Now they travel to take on perhaps the league's worst team with yet another crappy coach and QB combination. But wait, the Colts have 1 win – against the Browns! Indianapolis has little hope in the near future even with QB Andrew Luck when he returns. San Fran is showing signs of improvement and will make strides under a strong brain trust of coach Shanahan and GM Lynch. The 49ers had their best offensive output against the Rams two weeks ago with 39 points and 421 yards. Now they face the Colts defense that ranks bottom-2 in most metrics while allowing 396 YPG and 6.1 yards-per-play. Bottom of the barrel stuff. And the Colts offense is also awful averaging less than 18 PPG and 265 YPG to rank #31. Jacoby Brissett is the fill-in QB (ugh), and once the 49ers slow the Colts awful rush attack, they'll force him into more mistakes. The Colts have 1 win this season. They'll be fortunate to get 2 or 3 the rest of the way without QB Luck, and I'm not counting on one this week. San Francisco gets in the win column, knowing too that winless teams in game 4 or later are 37-14-1 ATS in road games after a pointspread win. The 49ers have a future, the clueless Colts don't.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay

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