College football underdog picks, insight and analysis

We attacked the marquee match-ups in Week 11 with three Top 25 games from the initial college football playoff rankings. Our underdog picks hit the mark with a 3-0 ATS result highlighted by outright underdog winners on LSU (+6) over Alabama 46-41 and Minnesota (+6.5) over Penn State 31-26. Iowa (+9) nearly completed the trifecta, but came up a foot short on a two-point conversion late in the contest of a 24-22 defeat at Wisconsin. 

LSU moved to No. 1 in this week's college football playoff rankings, and while I have not performed at a top of the leaderboard level this season, we'll try to continue the late season surge that now has our record at 18-18 ATS on these pages this season selecting only underdogs. 

A few solid match-ups this week from the CFP rankings includes:

• No. 8 Minnesota (+3) at No. 20 Iowa
• No. 4 Georgia at No. 12 Auburn (+2.5)
  
  
  

We won't be playing either of those underdogs on these pages this week, or Rutgers (+52.5), who is a Big Ten record underdog this week against No. 2 Ohio State. But know the number is inflated on Ohio State, who has their biggest games on deck against Penn State and Michigan and plays at Rutgers without suspended star defensive end Chase Young. Minnesota has improved greatly as the season has progressed, and they are not only on our list as a defensive dominator, but have improved on offense to join our list of teams with efficient and balanced offenses as mentioned in last week's analysis on the Gophers in their upset win over Penn State. 

Compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also review the betting data and live odds at Sports Insights, which takes betting information from seven leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes.

NCAA Football Underdog Selections for Saturday, Nov. 16 

377 Texas (+7) at Iowa State - Longhorns Moneyline +230
400 Nebraska (+14.5) vs. Wisconsin - Cornhuskers Moneyline +465

Texas (6-3) has dealt with its share of defensive injuries this season and it's led to the Longhorns allowing 446 yards per game. That could be an issue against an Iowa State (5-4) team that has scored at least 27 points in each of their last five games. The Cyclones enter off back-to-back losses and have lost three games by 2 points or less this season including last week's heartbreaker to Oklahoma 42-41. Recall in Week 9 on these pages we stepped in with the value on Oklahoma State (+10.5) and the Cowboys beat Iowa State outright 34-27. So Iowa State has allowed it's last two opponents to average more than 10 yards per pass, and now Texas comes to town with QB Sam Ehlinger and his 2600 passing yards and 24 TD passes along with his ability to run. Ehlinger has been his best helping Texas move the chains on third down, as the Longhorns rank No. 4 in the nation in third down conversions. The Longhorns have a better run defense than Oklahoma State, who held Iowa State to 86 rushing yards with Cyclones QB Brock Purdy passing 62 times for 382 yards. But 3 interceptions including a late pick-six was the difference in defeat, and Texas was able to pile up nearly 500 balanced yards in a 36-30 win over Oklahoma State in late September. If we just used comparative scores and opponents, we could note that Iowa State played Oklahoma better in defeat that Texas did in their 7-point neutral field loss to the Sooners. Iowa State does have a much better yards-per-play differential than Texas, and coach Matt Campbell is doing some great things in Ames. But he's still 0-3 ATS against Texas and Longhorns coach Tom Hermann is 14-4 ATS as underdog. Pedigree comes into play as Iowa State has not been favored in the last 15 match-ups with Texas. That includes last year in a 24-10 Texas win when Iowa State QB Brock Purdy had his worst game passing for just 130 yards. That won't happen in this match-up, and we anticipate a shootout and side with Texas. Hook 'em 'Horns. 

Nebraska (4-5) has lost three straight games but is also on a money-burning 0-6 ATS run. The Huskers are hurting, but enter off a bye week looking to regroup and win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible. It won't be easy with No. 14 Wisconsin at home this week before traveling to Maryland and then home for the regular season finale against No. 20 Iowa. But know that on Sept. 28 Nebraska was a 17-point home underdog to Ohio State, and are now taking 14.5 against Wisconsin. Sure Nebraska was blown out by the Buckeye's 48-7. Quarterback Martinez was awful passing for just 47 yards with 3 interceptions. But he'll be better this week, and recall Wisconsin was blown out by Ohio State as well 38-7 and only gained 191 yards in the Oct. 26 contest. The Badgers (7-2) have lost two of their last three games and held on last week to beat Iowa. But Wisconsin is 0-3 ATS in those games while allowing season high points of 24, 38 and 22 last week against the Hawkeye's. The concern is that Wisconsin will run the ball more effectively and control the ball, clock and chains. Jonathan Taylor rushed for a season high 250 yards last week, and he has 470 rushing yards and five touchdowns in two games against Nebraska. Wisconsin ranks No. 1 in the country in time of possession while Nebraska is No. 113 with just 27 minutes of possession per game, and that too is a concern. But the bye week, motivation and environment favors Big Red, while Wisconsin comes off a grueling grinder against Iowa one week after being blasted by Ohio State. Don't believe you see a peak performance from the Badgers and we side with Nebraska plus the big points at home.