Betting tips and Underdog Picks for NFL Week 15

Our December underdog picks are now 3-3 ATS following last weeks 1-1 result and 21-22 ATS this season. Nothing like last season's 35-19 'Dog log that included a 6-0 ATS finish the final three weeks. But let's see if we can capture some of that success and produce more profit as the top NFL teams push for the playoffs and positioning. Over the past three seasons posting underdog picks on these pages, the record now stands at 72-49 ATS (59.5%). 

For added insight and information on this year's betting results and teams that are powering their way to profits and success in the running game, read my recent Inside the Numbers article. Hopefully you'll gain more insight into NFL handicapping and betting, and add additional arsenal to your game to learn as you earn.

NFL Week 15 - Sunday, Dec. 15 

309 Chicago (+4.5) at Green Bay - Bears Moneyline +185
316 Carolina (+7) vs. Seattle - Panthers Moneyline +230  
321 Buffalo (+1.5) at Pittsburgh  - Moneyline Bills +105
327 Atlanta (+11) at San Francisco - Falcons Moneyline +425
330 Dallas (+1.5 or 2 game day) vs. LA Rams - Cowboys Moneyline +105 

Chicago at Green Bay

This line looks light to many bettors, as the Packers (10-3) are in first place in the NFC North and 6-1 at home. Green Bay is also 3-0 versus division opponents including a 10-3 win over the Bears in Week 1. Two wins in their final three games will secure the NFC North an potentially a first round bye in the playoffs for the Packers, even if one of those losses is next week at Minnesota against division rival Vikings (9-4). The look ahead line on that game is Vikings -4, which is also light as a double-digit win by Minnesota is in the Fairway Forecast. But this huge rivalry game against the surging Bears (7-6) on a three game winning streak will be a physical pounding in the brutal cold at Green Bay. NFL Weather calls for temperatures near 15 degrees, and near zero adding in wind chill. How brutal to take a pounding in that weather, and something to consider for the Packers energy and effort the following week for their most meaningful game at Minnesota. We get that it's Aaron Rogers against Mitch Trubisky in this quarterback match-up, but the Packers have still over-achieved greatly while benefiting from a plus-11 turnover margin. The Bears defense allows 5.1 yards per play to rank top-6 in the NFL and the run defense is top-tier and 26 YPR better than the Packers, who also allow 5.9 YPPL to rank bottom-6 in the league. Game-changing DL Akiem Hicks (knee) also returns to join LB Khalil Mack as dominant defenders, and Prince is back this week at starting cornerback. The Bears are still missing a pair of linebackers, but Chicago and QB Trubisky is playing better ball and the linemaker knows it setting an enticing lower line on Green Bay. We'll get behind the Bears. 

Seattle at Carolina

Both 5Dimes and Bovada are dealing Panthers +7 (-120), and others may join by Sunday as the Seahawks will be a popular bet and teaser with more than 80% of the spread bets on Seattle from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights live NFL odds and data feed. We cashed in easy on the LA Rams over Seattle last week on these pages and bettors clearly believe a bounce back is in order for the playoff-bound Seahawks (10-3) against crumbling Carolina (5-8), who fired head coach Ron Rivera before last week's blowout loss at Atlanta under new clueless coach Perry Fewell. The Panthers defense has allowed 413 YPG over their last three contests, but the YTD defensive numbers are still slightly better than the over-rated Seahawks, who have also benefited from a plus-11 turnover margin and the strong quarterback play of Russell Wilson. The Panthers have had 13 turnovers in their last five games while going 0-5, and that has led to much of their demise. Consider that Carolina was just a 5-point underdog at Green Bay in Week 10 and outgained Green Bay with 400 yards offense. Now they are getting more points at home against another over-valued team with a sub-par defense. Carolina will come to play as spoiler. You can bet on it.  

Buffalo at Pittsburgh 

Steelers third-string QB 'Duck' Hodges gets his toughest test against a stronger Bills defense, and both Pittsburgh (8-5) and Buffalo (9-4) rank top-five on defenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. Perhaps that's why the total is the lowest this season hitting 36 and some 37's again. But the Bills offense is more diverse, and wouldn't be surprised to see more no-huddle or up-tempo. The Bills also have a top-5 rushing attack at 135/game and 4.6 YPR, which is significantly stronger than the Steelers poor ground game. Read my recent Inside the Numbers article and stats to understand more, and while the Steelers run defense is pretty stout, I suggest you review the boxscore of the Steelers very fortunate win over the Colts in Week 9 at Heinz Field for a better measure of this Steelers team. While the critics say the Bills have played a soft schedule, we note that over the last three weeks Buffalo has beaten Dallas and improved Denver and lost to league-leading Baltimore 24-17 last week, while holding the Ravens most dynamic offense to 257 yards. Meanwhile, the 'surging' Steelers have won 3-straight games by 7-points or less against low-lifes Cincinnati, Cleveland and Arizona - perhaps the three worst-coached teams in the league. The Bills are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC while the Steelers are No. 6 if the playoffs started this week. They don't, and after this game, the Bills will be playing for a division title next week while the Steelers find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs where they belong. That's not a teaser, but the Bills will also be added to ours.

Atlanta at San Francisco 

Situational handicapping and play in this mismatch, as the 49ers (11-2) seemingly have a decent sized advantage again at the point of attack and running game over the Falcons (4-9). I love most everything about the 49ers and their creative coaching, play-calling and excellent running game and defense. But after a grueling road loss at Baltimore two weeks ago and then San Fran's 'all-in' effort and emotional last-second 48-46 win at New Orleans last week to give them the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, we caution you about laying big chalk this week with division foes LA Rams and Seahawks on deck to finish the season. The 49ers stock is high and you're paying a premium to back them, even as they miss six defensive starters this week including three in the secondary. That's our cue to step in on the Falcons, who have won three of their last five games including the biggest upset of the season in a dominating win over the Saints as a 14-point underdog. Superb situation to support the Dirty Birds.

LA Rams at Dallas 

The Rams (8-5) join the Seahawks and Patriots as the most popular picks and spread bets this week. Big line mover from the look ahead line last week, and while we cashed in big on the Rams last week with a similar sharp move on Los Angeles, we sell the Rams this week and definitely add the Cowboys (6-7) to our teaser card along with win wagers. Dallas has lost three in a row and is clearly under-achieving with the league's No. 1 offense, No. 1 pass offense and top-8 defense to match the Rams. The Rams are off their biggest win of the season over the Seahawks in redemption, and the pressure continues to mount as a potential playoff team. San Francisco is also on deck for Los Angeles next Saturday, while Dallas has their game of the year next week at Philadelphia. Now off back-to-back Thursday games, we giving the Cowboys one more chance to get their first victory over a winning team this season after failing in six tries. Buy low on Dallas and sell high on LA and let the chips fall where they may.

Some totals of interest in Week 15 games not listed above, as we have a big card to bet this week in pursuit of profit. Compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers.  

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay