Preview and Picks for NCAA Football Week 4
The college football schedule picks up in Week 4 with four Top 25 matchups and more conference games. We'll chip-in some Picks and Opinions on select games and evaluate the contests generating more betting interest.
We had a winning Pick in Week 3 to improve to 1-1 on Top 25 picks this season, but a losing Opinion last week. Last year we went 11-7 on Top 25 Picks posted at OSGA, and added additional picks and bonus picks went 6-0 ATS. So follow along and as we dig deeper as the season moves along, I'll chip-in additional Picks on these pages at OSGA including this week below.
The major line moves and totals continue this week, and I tweeted out the college football line moves and totals last Sunday. Many include the top teams with big betting lines.
Check out more college football Week 4 updates with opening odds and line moves in my coverage in Forbes. Texas has taken over No. 1 ahead of Georgia, and the Big 10 is featured Friday with a Top 25 matchup between No. 22 Nebraska and No. 24 Illinois, who were both unranked to start the season.
Week 4 Top 25 Picks And Matchups
College football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern and betting favorites (-) listed. For bettors interested in reduced juice sportsbook options, checkout BetAnySports and Heritage Sports, which also offers cash back bonuses getting the 'most squeeze for your juice."
Friday, Sept. 20
No. 22 Nebraska (-7.5) vs. No. 24 Illinois | 8 p.m. | FOX - Lean Nebraska
Saturday, Sept. 21
No. 1 Texas (-44.5) vs. UL Monroe | 8 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
No. 2 Georgia | Bye
No. 3 Ohio State (-40) vs. Marshall | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 4 Alabama | Bye
No. 5 Ole Miss (36.5) vs. Georgia Southern | 7:45 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma | 7:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+ - Opinion Tennessee
No. 7 Missouri (-20) vs. Vanderbilt | 2:15 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 8 Miami (-17) at South Florida | 7p.m. | ESPN
No. 10 Penn State (-49) vs. Kent State | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
No. 11 USC (-5.5) at No. 18 Michigan | 3:30 p.m. | CBS - Opinion USC
No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-2) | 4 p.m. | FOX - Lean Utah
No. 13 Kansas State (-7.5) at BYU | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 16 LSU (-21.5) vs. UCLA | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 17 Notre Dame (-28) vs. Miami (Ohio) | 3:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 19 Louisville (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 20 Iowa State (-21) vs. Arkansas State | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
No. 21 Clemson (-19.5) vs. NC State | 12 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 23 Northern Illinois (-13.5) vs. Buffalo | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
No. 25 Texas A&M (-22.5) vs. Bowling Green | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
Others receiving votes: Memphis 77, Boise St. 62, Syracuse 62, UNLV 54, Boston College 47, Washington St. 30, Arizona 15, Iowa 15, Indiana 13, California 11, Liberty 10, Toledo 9, UCF 6, South Carolina 3, North Carolina 3, Arizona St. 3, BYU 2, Pittsburgh 1.
Next week's big game on Sept. 28 is Georgia (-1.5) at Alabama with an advance total of 49 points.
Illinois at Nebraska
See Picks, Opinions and Leans above in Top 25 rankings.
Both teams are 3-0 heading into the Big Ten opener, and neither has lost to the spread. The Fighting Illini play their first road game of the season, where they have gone 11-3 ATS under fourth year HC Bret Bielema. Both defenses are a strength with Nebraska allowing just 232 yards per game vs. FBS foes and 10 points or less to all three opponents. The Huskers have the stronger rushing offense and run defense stats that are also +4.7 yards per rush better than Illinois, who is likely to struggle on offense after gaining just 275 yards at 4.7 YPPL vs. Kansas. Under Illinois team total (17-17.5) is of interest with Illinois running the ball more. Highly touted freshman QB Dylan Raiola has Nebraska fans excited for the Big Ten season, and Big Red is the team to team to support and stay undefeated, if you're betting.
USC at Michigan
I didn't bite on the home 'Dog Wolverines when Texas came to town two weeks ago and mauled Michigan 31-12. The Wolverines are now 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS under (clueless) new head coach Sherrone Moore. With this being another coach mismatch with USC's Lincoln Riley already leading the Trojans to an opening game win over LSU and now off a bye for their Big Ten opener, it's USC's game to win with a stronger offense and improved defense to handle Michigan's offense and change at QB in Alex Orji, who adds a running element but is not a proven consistent passer. Michigan will rely on their pretty solid defense that despite allowing 31 points to an elite Texas offense, they held the Longhorns to just 5.7 yards per play.
Utah at Oklahoma State
This line has bounced around and shifted favorite roles with news of Utah QB Cam Rising's status, who injured his hand in the Week 2 win at Baylor and didn't play in last week's win at Utah State. Rising is scheduled to play, and the 25-year-old 7th year senior has been a proven performer and leader for the Utes. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman is 24 and also a 7th year senior on this third team. Utah was the Big 12 favorite to start the season, and Oklahoma State a top-3 contender. So this is a big early-season matchup and one to watch in the Big 12 and just a lean Utah's way for now.
Tennessee at Oklahoma
Tennessee has been most impressive in their 3-0 start scoring a nation-high 191 points and winning those contests by 59 points per game. That included 51-10 over previously ranked NC State. The defense has been better than advertised too especially on third down and rushing the passer. Despite a 3-0 start, Oklahoma struggled to beat Houston 16-12 with just 249 yards offense, and then last week had just 349 yards offense vs. Tulane in a 34-19 win. How are they going to match the firepower of Tennessee? The Sooners defense has brought pressure and has 10 takeaways already this season. They'll need to pressure Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava and force more mistakes to stay in this contest.
Other Picks:
Kansas (+2.5) at West Virginia
Texas Tech (-3) vs. Arizona State
Iowa at Minnesota (+3)
Arizona State is 3-0, but that close win over Mississippi State doesn't look too good now, and last week the Sun Devils allowed 400 yards offense and too many explosive plays to Texas State while getting out-gained in a narrow 31-28 win. The Texas Tech Red Raiders have far more firepower with nearly 600 yards offense last week in a 66-21 route over North Texas laying less than 10 points. The 37-16 loss at Washington State was very misleading as 4 turnovers were costly yet the Red Raiders still outgained the Cougars while piling up nearly 500 yards offense. Best Bet.
Minnesota Gophers are No. 1 in the nation in EPA per play defense with a pair of shutouts following an opening game loss to NC 19-17 on a last second missed field goal. Combined with the stronger QB and potential to run the ball better, this is a Big Ten home 'Dog ready to bite and take home the Pig (rivalry trophy).
Check back Saturday morning for any additions, updates and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. FairwayJay chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.