Preview and Picks for NCAA Football Week 3 

Just a few college football Top 25 matchups in Week 3, but we'll still chip in some Opinions and Leans on other games. A light week with probably the worst college football card of the season. As the season progresses in the weeks ahead, there will be more Top 25 matchups, key games and additional data points available with stats, power ratings adjustments, scheduling situations and over-reactions to guide us towards more winners. 

Such was the case last week when No. 5 Notre Dame lost 16-14 SU to No. Illinois as a -28.5 point favorite. The Irish were off their big win over Top-25 Texas A&M and also had Purdue on deck this week, setting up prime letdown and lookahead situations and also a rising, over-inflated betting line on the Irish providing us an easy cash bonus winner on No. Illinois playing the game as their Super Bowl. 

The major line moves continue this week, and I tweeted out the college football line moves and totals within 1 hour of opening last Sunday. There was plenty of 3-4 point adjustments from the opening odds and more moves as the week progressed. 

Notable line moves opening hour.
AZST -3'<-2
TT -12<-10'
ALAB -14>-15
FSU -5>-6
NCST -19>-21'
CC/TEM O/U 49>53
WASH -6<-3'
OR -17<-14
WV PK>-2'
MIA O -34>-37
OKL -12>-13'
APPST-1>-3
IOWA -20>-23
UTAH -22<-21
LIB -24<-22
DUKE -12>-16
MISS -24<-22, TOT 60'>64
VAN -8>-10
TEX -30>-34… https://t.co/paEpU0jKfA

— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) September 8, 2024

We'll add more coverage and comments of line adjustments in the weeks ahead, and add some handicapping tools to assist you in identifying value and more winners during the season and leading into the new 12-team college playoff. Last year's Top 25 matchup Picks went 11-7 ATS, and we'll update the Picks and Opinions each week along with Leans and bonus picks. I'll be providing Picks, Opinions or Leans on every Top 25 matchup each week after missing Week 2 on the PUP. The Top 25 matchups and teams draw the most media and betting interest. So we'll cover those games each week and other select plays on Top 25 games as the season moves along, and chip-in added information you can bet on.  

Now into Week 3, there are 6 SEC teams ranked in the top-7 of this week's AP Top 25 college football poll. 

Week 3 Top 25 Picks And Matchups

College football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern and betting favorites (-) listed. For bettors interested in reduced juice sportsbook options, checkout BetAnySports and Heritage Sports, which also offers cash back bonuses getting the 'most squeeze for your juice."  

Saturday, Sept. 14 

No. 1 Georgia (-22) at Kentucky | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 2 Texas (-35.5) vs. UTSA | 7 p.m. | ESPN 
No. 3 Ohio State | Bye 
No. 4 Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin | 12 p.m. | FOX 
No. 5 Ole Miss (-22.5) at Wake Forest | 6:30 p.m. | CW 
No. 6 Missouri (-14.5) vs. No. 24 Boston College | 12:45 p.m. | SEC Network - Pick Boston College
No. 7 Tennessee (-49) vs. Kent | 7:45 p.m. | SEC Network 
No. 8 Penn State | Bye 
No. 9 Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State | 3:30 p.m. | FOX - Opinion Oregon State
No. 10 Miami (-36.5) vs. Ball State | 3:30 p.m. | ACC Network 
No.11 USC | Bye 
No. 12 Utah (-18.5) at Utah State | 4:30 p.m. | CBS Sports Network 
No. 13 Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Tulsa 
No. 14 Kansas State (-7) vs No. 20 Arizona | 8 p.m. | FOX (Friday) - Lean Arizona
No. 15 Oklahoma (-13) vs. Tulane | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN 
No. 16 LSU (-6) at South Carolina | 12 p.m. | ABC 
No. 17 Michigan (-22.5) vs. Arkansas State | 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network 
No 18 Notre Dame (-8.5) at Purdue | 3:30 p.m. | CBS - Opinion Purdue
No. 19 Louisville | Bye 
No. 21 Iowa State | Bye 
No. 22 Clemson | Bye 
No. 23 Nebraska (-30.5) vs. No. Iowa | 7:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network 
No. 25 No. Illinois | Bye 

Other receiving votes: Illinois 101, Boise St. 77, Texas A&M 68, Syracuse 63, Memphis 38, Washington 27, Iowa 24, Kansas 22, Vanderbilt 18, South Carolina 10, Liberty 9, Wisconsin 9, UNLV 7, North Carolina 7, California 3, BYU 2, UCF 1, TCU 1. 

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Line moves and notes 

LSU is down from -7.5 to -6 and even -5.5 vs. South Carolina, with sharp bettors expecting the home 'Cocks to rise to the occasion in this SEC matchup. Another big line move is Notre Dame -11.5 down to -8.5 and 8 at Purdue with the Boilermakers from the Big Ten taking more money. The Utah Utes, now in the Big 12 and the favorite to win the conference, are down from -21.5 to -18 at state rival Utah State. How 'bout the Hook 'em move on Texas from -30 to -35.5 at home Saturday night vs. UT San Antonio? Serious steam as bettors ride the Longhorns, now up to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll. And No. 1 Georgia is down from -24.5 to -22 at Kentucky. 

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State

Arizona and Kansas State meet for just the second time (1978) with the Wildcats playing K-State in Manhattan for the first time. Kansas State is on a 12-2 ATS run at home. Note, this is a non-conference game for 2024 as it was scheduled prior to realignment for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Both teams will play nine other Big 12 games. The line has not moved from what would have been the Week 1 line, despite a 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS start by Kansas State, who allowed nearly 500 yards to Tulane last week and needed turnovers and a 40-yard fumble return TD in the 4th quarter to win 34-27. Arizona plays their first road game after beating a pair of light weights while playing shoddy defense and allowing 49 points. If you prefer running game success, then you'll side with the K-State Wildcats, who are averaging 249 yards per game rushing at 7.8 yards per rush and allowing just 93 ypg rushing at 2.5 ypr. Note that Arizona allowed lowly New Mexico to rush for 210 yards and pass for another 260 in a 61-39 Week 1 Wildcats win. See Lean above on Arizona, but perhaps the better play is over 60.5 points on game total. 

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri 

Despite winning their first two games 51-0 and 38-0 over FCS Murray State and Buffalo, Missouri is getting too much credit here by my ratings. Same love in the AP Top 25 poll at No. 6 as the Tigers would be an underdog on a neutral field to four teams below them in the rankings. First-year Boston College coach Bill O'Brien has plenty of experience taking on top teams as Penn State's former head coach, and NFL experience. In the Eagles Week 1 smacking of then-ranked Florida State Seminoles, BC ran roughshod with a 263-21 rushing dominance. Now Boston College has given the ACC a boost into the Top 25, and while the line has been adjusted, I'm fairly certain it's not enough. See the Pick above, and noting the line move downward. But Boston College has been very solid so far running and passing with 283 YPG rushing and allowing just 41 rushing YPG at less than 2.0 YPR. Big 6-5, 240 lb returning QB Castellanos has completed 70% of his passes without an interception and tossed 6 touchdowns. Big double-digit 'Dog with solid stats and motivation gets the competitive call. 

No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State

The rivalry formerly known as the Civil War is played early this season, but Oregon and Oregon State are no longer Pac-12 rivals. Still, this prime time Saturday showdown broadcast on FOX will draw plenty of watch and wager interest. But before you go Duck hunting, take a peak at the technical angles below and consider buying on the Beavers. Also, while Oregon is 2-0 SU, the Ducks are 0-2 ATS failing to cover their two games by an average of 27 points per game. Oregon has also allowed 7 sacks in two games after allowing 5 the entire 2023 season. Oregon State is 2-0 SU/ATS and shutout San Diego State 21-0 last week setting up some positve ATS profiles as 'Dog off a shutout win. The Beavers have dominated overland rushing for 599 yards while outgaining SDSU and Idaho State by an average of 220 yards per game. Home underdogs who were a bowl team last season and facing a team that allows 14 or more points per game are 75-42 ATS since 1980 (Playbook Sports). Included is a subset of 24-7 ATS if the opponent allows 14 or more PPG and is coming off a SU and ATS win. 

Check back Saturday morning for any additions and updates. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. FairwayJay chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.