College Football Betting -- Cal can get bowl-eligible with win over UCLA

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Nov 25th, 2023 3:44:25 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Cal Golden Bears have a chance to get to a bowl game, but they have to score a win against the UCLA Bruins to do it.

The UCLA Bruins went through a heartbreaking 48-45 loss at the hands of USC last season. So not only did they want some payback, they didn't want to leave any doubt whatsoever.

And as BetOnline patrons observed, there was very little doubt at the end of 60 minutes. After attaining a 14-10 halftime lead, Chip Kelly's team ran and hid in the second half, shutting the door completely and posting a 38-20 win, in the L.A. Coliseum, that improved the team's record to 7-4. That gave them some satisfaction after consecutive losses at the hands of Arizona and Arizona State that pushed them out of the national rankings.

Unfortunately, the wheels have come off USC to the extent that beating Lincoln Riley's squad was not enough to get them back into the Top 25, in either the AP or Coaches' polls.

The Cal Golden Bears are desperately trying to avoid their fourth straight losing season, and it's quite possible that Justin Wilcox won't be retained any longer as head coach. But there is still some hope that this team can make it to the postseason. With a 5-6 record, it is, of course, imperative that they be able to beat the Bruins in a game that will begin at 10:30 PM ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

Both squads are coming off an emotionally exhausting game against an arch-rival. We already referred to UCLA's battle with USC. And Cal managed to defeat Stanford in "The Big Game" last week. So both might be candidates for a letdown.

In the college football betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, UCLA is laying some points:


UCLA Bruins -9.5 (-107)
California Golden Bears +9.5 (-113)

Over 50.5 points -110
Under 50.5 points -110


UCLA running back TJ Harden broke lose for 142 yards against USC's rather permissive defense. We don't see any real evidence that he is going to duplicate that. And Cal is at least respectable against the run.

UCLA is absolutely outstanding defending against the run, allowing just 2.2 yards per attempt and 64.6 yards per game. And that is a hurdle California is going to have to get past.

USC backs rushed 15 times for 23 yards last week. The Bruins registered four sacks of Caleb Williams. All told, the Trojans had THREE net rushing yards.

So it is clear that to beat them, you have to employ something inventive in the passing game.

One can see Cal's offense being slowed up quite a bit against the Bruins. Jaydn Ott is particularly threatening, with 333 yards in his last two games. But UCLA seems to be elite at shutting down opposition ground attacks.

Cal Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for seven yards an attempt with an 11-5 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, so he is serviceable, but is he a game-changer? Probably not. And he was also banged up a bit in the win over Stanford last week.

When they move through the air, UCLA is not traveling at a supersonic clip. Ethan Garbers is capable, but he is not awe-inspiring in his performance. Garbers, a Washington transfer whose brother Chase played at Cal, has completed almost 66% of his passes with nine touchdowns. Against USC he did have three touchdown passes and did not turn the ball over.

There was a point where Cal's Wilcox was money in the bank as a big underdog, covering 16 of 19 when getting at least a touchdown. But he has faltered in that role of late, dropping six of his last nine, including routs administered by the likes of Washington, Oregon and Utah this season in the soon-to-be depleted Pac 12. So it is not something we are necessarily going to lean on.

What may be more interesting is that UCLA has covered just one of its last eight games after playing USC, while Cal has covered four of its last five after playing the Big Game against Stanford.

If Cal is going to put forth a big effort in that quest for bowl eligibility, I'm thinking that will come by way of defense. That's more along the lines of Wilcox's culture (he was the D-coordinator aty Wisconsin). And they could make it hard for UCLA to move it. But the Bears may find themselves without a "Plan B" if Ott can not do something very special against the Bruins' front seven. This game looks like an UNDER to me.


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