Preview and predictions for Week 11 NCAA Top 25 football betting
We chipped-in a few more winners last week with a lean on Texas A&M and upset pick of Purdue over Michigan State. The Week 11 card is the biggest of the season with Top 25 match-ups, and the top online sportsbooks will be taking heavy betting action on these marquee match-ups.
We'll fire for more profit and green on the gridiron as the teams push towards the finish, conference championship games, bowl bids and College Football Playoff.
A shakeup in the College Football Playoff rankings this week with some teams dropping down following losses including Michigan State, Wake Forest and Baylor. There has never been a two-loss team make the CFP in its first seven seasons.
College Football Playoff Rankings (second release Nov. 9)
1. Georgia (9-0)
2. Alabama (8-1)
3. Oregon (8-1)
4. Ohio State (8-1)
5. Cincinnati (9-0)
6. Michigan (8-1)
7. Michigan State (8-1)
8. Oklahoma (9-0)
9. Notre Dame (8-1)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)
11. Texas A&M (7-2)
12. Wake Forest (8-1)
13. Baylor (7-2)
14. BYU (8-2)
15. Ole Miss (7-2)
As you fire away on the Week 11 college football card and Top 25 match-ups and teams, review my recent stats update on balanced and efficient offensive teams that may assist you in your handicapping and selections. All lines available at leading online sportsbooks including reduced juice shops. Compare the best spreads and moneylines, and become an OSGA VIP!
Week 11 AP Top 25 Match-ups
Saturday, Nov. 13
No. 4 Oklahoma at No. 18 Baylor / 12:00 p.m. ET / FOX
No. 9 Michigan at No. 23 Penn State / 12:00 p.m. ET / ABC
No. 26 Purdue at No. 6 Ohio State / 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC
No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 12 Mississippi / 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN
No. 21 NC State at No. 13 Wake Forest / 7:30 p.m. ET / ACC Network
Oklahoma at Baylor
Line: Oklahoma -5.5 and Total 62.5 at MyBookie
Baylor features a strong, balanced '200 club' offense that runs for an average of 208 yards per game and passes for 218 per game. The Bears 6.6 yards per play offense ranks top 10 in the country, but is still behind undefeated Oklahoma's 7.0. The Sooners have won 23 straight games in November and enter off a bye. Oklahoma's offense has really taken off since Caleb Williams took over as quarterback. Williams replaced the preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler during the Texas game, and OU has scored at least 50 points in three of four games. But none of those teams' defenses are as good as the Bears, who are 5-0 SU/ATS at home and held off Iowa State for a win despite being out-gained as home 'Dog. The Sooners defense has still been a sieve, allowing 410 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Oklahoma won't get through their next three tough games without a loss, and no surprise if it starts in Waco against the bounce-back hungry Bears.
Opinion: Baylor plus the points and moneyline
Michigan at Penn State
Line: Michigan -1 and Total 48.5 at Bookmaker
Michigan has the stronger stat profile and the Wolverines are also a 200 club offense with balance and efficiency averaging 234 yards rushing and 217 passing and scoring 36 points per game. Michigan has the superior running game and offensive line, and Penn State has failed to reach 100 yards rushing in three straight games and 5-of-7. The Wolverines passing game will have some success this week too following Ohio State's success last week. Both teams defenses rank top 10 in the country allowing 4.6 yards per play, but the Lions defense won't save them this week after we cashed an opinion play on Penn State in Week 9. The Michigan men take over this week.
Purdue at Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -21 and Total 62.5 at GT Bets
With just one Top 25 match-up last week, we added Purdue as an upset pick winner playing undefeated Michigan State. The Boilers earned their second victory over a Top 5 team having won at Iowa last month. Purdue is in a 4-way tie on top of the Big Ten West division, but will need some turnovers and big plays to pull off the biggest upset this week. Huge points offered against an explosive Buckeye's offense that ranks No. 3 in yards per play margin (+3.01), No. 2 in scoring margin (+25.9) and No. 3 in yards per game margin (+187). Still, Ohio State has failed to cover smaller spreads than this one the last two games. Lean with Purdue and the Boilers defense allowing less than 20 points per game and holding Ohio State to 35 would be an accomplishment this week with the Buckeye's averaging 45 points per game to rank No. 2 in the country.
Lean: Purdue plus the points
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Line: Texas A&M -2.5 and Total 57 at WagerWeb
Texas A&M was a winner on these pages last week, and the Aggies have been made a short road favorite by the leading online sportsbooks, who have more bonuses and will be taking more betting action on this SEC showdown. That includes on the total, which is up as the Ole Miss defense is a concern despite Sam Williams leading the league with 11 sacks. Combined with Mississippi's 200 club offense and strong passing attack of Heisman contender Matt Corral, it's tempting to take Ole Miss as a home 'Dog with additional technical and situational support favoring the Rebels. But Mississippi has been a little banged-up and also taken advantage of turnovers with the nation's top turnover margin. The Ole Miss defense is far inferior to the Aggies, who rank top 10 in the country allowing 4.4 yards per play and have allowed 14 or less points in three straight games. A&M is playing like a Top 5 team, going 4-0 SU/ATS over their last four games, including the win over Alabama.
Opinion: Texas A&M
NC State at Wake Forest
Line: Wake Forest -2.5 and Total 66.5 at Bovada
We knew the bubble would burst on Wake Forest soon with their deficient defense allowing 448 yards per game and at least 220 both running and passing. The Demon Deacons suffered their first loss last week blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead in a 58-55 loss at North Carolina. The Wake Forest offense tops the nation averaging betting that 45 points per game. Deacon QB Sam Hartman has 27 TD passes and he'll surpass 3,000 yards in this game with Wake averaging 330 passing yards per game. But NC State sits just behind Wake Forest in the ACC Atlantic division, and the Wolf Pack feature a defense that is 12 points per game better than the Deacons and more than 110 yards and 1.0 yards per play better on defense as well. NC State has the ACC's best scoring defense allowing just 17.1 points per game, and the Wolf Pack's 55.4% pass completion defense ranks top 15 in the country and is what's needed to get the ball back against Wake's explosive pass attack. North Carolina State QB Devin Leary has had a breakout season but gets far less attention in the ACC and nationally, yet he's passed for 25 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. Of course the top online sportsbooks didn't make 8-1 Wake Forest an underdog, but the wrong team is favored and the 'Pack will prove it Saturday in this first place showdown.
Pick: NC State plus the points and moneyline
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay