College Basketball Odds -- San Diego St. ready to roll again vs. UAB

  • In Charles Jay
  • Fri, Mar 22nd, 2024 12:19:55 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The San Diego State Aztecs hope for the same kind of fortune that they had last season, when they went to the final game of the NCAA Tournament.


BetOnline customers undoubtedly remember last season's run by the San Diego State Aztecs, who made it all the way to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament. That wasn't a "Cinderella" story; SDSU has had a very good program for years. But they don't customarily get a lot of attention in the Mountain West Conference.

Now there may be some expectations, and the Aztecs will have to manage that. On Friday they take the floor against the UAB Blazers in a game that takes place at 1:45 PM ET at Spokane, WA, to be televised on TNT.

Last season's run was indeed magical; SDSU scored wins over Alabama, Creighton and FAU (the latter two by a single point) before being beaten 76-59 by a UConn squad that handled everyone in the Big Dance by double digits. This year, the only team they lost to who is not in the NCAA Tournament field is UNLV, which recently went through to the second round of the NIT.

This year, in addition to a robust MWC schedule, which we might add took place in a conference that got SIX bids to the Big Dance, they beat Gonzaga and Saint Mary's from the West Coast Conference. And they were defeated in the Mountain West championship game by New Mexico.

UAB (Alabama-Birmingham) won the championship of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) with a very decisive 85-69 win over Temple. The best they had to offer was on display in that one - they got 29 points from Alejandro Vasquez, who hit five of his six attempts from downtown; they got 14 points, 16 rebounds and four assist from center Yaxel Lendeborg, and 6-7 forward Eric Gaines filled up the stat sheet. Check out this incredible line - 15 points, six rebounds, nine assists, three blocks and five steals.

In the college basketball odds that have been posted on this NCAA Tournament game by the people at BetOnline, SDSU is the favorite:

San Diego State Aztecs -6.5
UAB Blazers +6.5

Over 140 points -110
Under 140 points -110

One thing that you notice about San Diego State that not a lot of top teams have is that they are experienced.

There are four senior starters, and you know that top players choose to enter the NBA - or at least try to - after just a year or two. But these guys have quality. Darrion Trammell, a transfer from Seattle, patrols the backcourt along with Lamont Butler, who was part of last year's tournament run, as was Micah Parrish.

But the guy who really gets things rolling for the Aztecs is 6-9 Jaedon LeDee, who is well-travelled, having previously played at Ohio State and TCU. LeDee has posted eleven double-doubles this season, and he exploded in the MWC tourney, with 81 points. He knows how to get to the line; in fact, he has gotten doble-digit free throw attempts on fourteen different occasions. At KenPom, which is the recognized authority for college basketball analytics, he is 5th in their Player of the Year rankings.

In this game, we notice that UAB is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. And they may have to put that to work against the Aztecs, who really live off their defense. Brian Dutcher's team is sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And they stop three-pointers pretty cold (allowing just 30.5%). So that makes UAB relatively one-dimensional.

Speaking of that, SDSU is one-dimensional themselves. They've only shot 31.3% from three-point territory. With all that experience, they know by now how to navigate the short and mid-range shots.

We were inclined to move toward the total here, because of this non-dependence on the three-pointer on the part of both teams. The fewer they throw up there, the better off they are. In the matchup, though, SDSU's defense is going to make the difference. So we'll lay the points.


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