Academy Award Betting -- Best Picture: If Oppenheimer doesn't win, who could?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Mar 10th, 2024 11:49:17 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


It seems a foregone conclusion that Oppenheimer will win the Best Picture Academy Award, but how many Oscars will it win?


Last year, two of the films that kept the motion picture business afloat were "Oppenheimer" ($960.7 million in box office receipts) and "Barbie" ($1.446 billion). The Academy loves films that make a lot of money, unless they are of the superhero variety or something not politically correct to them like "Sound of Freedom" ($250.6 million).

Well, they love the Christopher Nolan-directed biopic. But how much, exactly? It's nominated for 13 Oscars. Will it win at least eight of those?

Here is the BetOnline prop for that:

Oppenheimer: How many Academy Awards will it win?

Over 7.5 Academy Awards -180
Under 7.5 Academy Awards +140

Here are all the nominations:

Best Picture
Best Director -- Christopher Nolan
Best Actor -- Cillian Murphy
Best Supporting Actor -- Robert Downey Jr.
Best Supporting Actress -- Emily Blunt
Best Adapted Screenplay -- Christopher Nolan
Best Cinematography -- Hoyte van Hoytema
Best Costume Design -- Ellen Mirojnick
Best Film Editing -- Jennifer Lame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling -- Luisa Abel
Best Original Score -- Ludwig Göransson
Best Production Design -- Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman
Best Sound -- Willie D. Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell

The film is the overwhelming choice to win Best Picture, to the point where many sportsbooks aren't even interested in taking more action. And since we don't get the complete results, we don't know who got second place.

It often happens that when a movie is such a favorite, it will simply carry a number of categories as a matter of course. After all, when you've got a viable "Best Picture" favorite, well, there are a lot of things that go into the making of a picture. So that is what you'd be evaluating when you look at this proposition.

Best Picture, Best Actor (Robert Downey Jr.) and Best Director (the aforementioned Nolan) are virtual locks. The screenplay adaptation is hardly a lock, and neither is Supporting Actress Emily Blunt, as Da'Vine Joy Randolph ("The Holdovers") is expected to win that category.

For the stuff, maybe we can refer to a site like Gold Derby, which doesn't necessarily know how to list the odds correctly, but have Academy Award "experts" who vote on all the awards.

They have Hoyte van Hoytema a clear winner for Best Cinematography, Jennifer Lame the winner in Best Film Editing, and they also have Ludwig Göransson winning for Best Original Score and a quartet of people for Best Sound. There is no real support in the other categories.

That would bring the total of likely winners to eight. But does that make it worth laying the -180 for the "Over 7.5"?

Pricing the prop at -180 means that there is a 64.3% chance that "Oppenheimer" will snag all eight categories in which experts expect them to win.

Are you willing to go down that road?

Remember that all it takes is for one "upset" to happen in one of these categories; one "bone," if you will, given to a film that may have been snubbed somewhere else.

The way you may want to look at it is that out of the thirteen nominations, the most "Oppenheimer" can win is eight. Anything less than that kind of Oscar sweep would pay you at +140 if you take the UNDER.

That may indeed be the direction I'd like to go.


Get ready for the Oscars - and place wagers on all kinds of entertainment and pop culture propositions - at BetOnline, where you can open up your account very easily. Just use your credit card or any of their numerous cryptocurrency options,,,,, and good luck!


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.