Super Bowl 55 Props -- Bucs-Chiefs: Is Chris Godwin Ready to Take Control?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Feb 7th, 2021 3:21:18 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Chris Godwin stands to be a difference-maker for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they are going to win Super Bowl 55 against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.


There are many people who are perhaps casual followers of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are very familiar with their big wide receiver, Mike Evans. And why not? He is an All-Pro - level performer, and he was on the receiving end of 13 touchdown passes from Tom Brady this season.

But some BetOnline customers may not be as familiar with Chris Godwin, who, like Evans, has been recognized as a Pro Bowl performer. Godwin may turn out to be the most important person in the Tampa Bay offense, outside of Brady, in Super Bowl 55, which takes place at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time at Raymond James Stadium.

If you are a BetOnline patron - and you should be - you would be aware but they have posted more than a thousand props on the Super Bowl. And we are going to examine one of them as it concerns this outstanding receiver.

Chris Godwin - Receiving Yards

Over 76.5 yards - 114
Under 76.5 yards - 114

Godwin was a third round draft choice out of Penn State in 2017. He had his best season last year, When he caught 86 passes for 1333 yards.

This year he wasn't quite as productive, at least as far as the raw numbers are concerned. And that is understandable, considering that there were more receivers available for Tom Brady to throw to, including Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Godwin had 65 receptions for 840 yards - an average of 70 per game.

What was particularly noteworthy is that he was able to convert on 77.4% of his attempted targets. That is more than ten percentage points higher than Brady's completion rate, so it is safe to say that Godwin outperforms expectations. At the same time, he averaged ten yards per target. That's not only the best figure of any Tampa Bay receiver, it's also better than any Kansas City receiver had this season.

So when we are looking at the over-under on his yardage, we see that the figure represents a little more then he averaged this season.

Maybe that seems unusual to you; maybe it doesn't. But the way we are going to go with this prop is a little bit more dependent upon what the Kansas City defense has done this season. Let's explain.

We don't know if you are aware of this, but the Kansas City defensive unit, which is steered by coordinator Steve Spagnolo, allowed the second lowest yardage total to wide receivers this season. Obviously such a thing would suggest that they might be vulnerable to running backs catching the ball out of the backfield, and tight ends. And they most certainly are.

But they were particularly effective against those receivers who were split out wide. In the Tampa Bay offense, those people, most of the time, are going to be Evans and either Antonio Brown or Scott Miller. Godwin's territory is the slot; in fact, he has been there for 73% of his intended targets this year. And defending slot receivers has actually been something of a weakness for Kansas City.

The Chiefs have allowed 8.6 yards per attempt to slot receivers. That figure was 9.8 in the Week 12 meeting. And that would seem to be an open invitation for Godwin to do some business.

We see no reason to believe that head coach Bruce Arians isn't going to utilize him in the capacity where he is most competent. Therefore, we have a reasonable expectation that he could beat this season's average in terms of receiving yardage.

It is not necessarily a no-brainer, but we do think there's some value in going OVER the 76.5 yard total in the case of Chris Godwin.


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