PGA Championship Final Round - First Time PGA Tour Winner on Tee to Victory

FairwayJay Analyzes the Final Round of 2022 PGA Championship and Adjusted Odds as a First Time PGA Tour Winner is Set to Win the Wanamaker Trophy

The final round is set at Southern Hills in Tulsa, and we're going to have a first time PGA Tour winner. A pre-tournament longshot at the leading online sportsbooks with hoist the Wanamaker Trophy

Mito Pereira (-9), a 27-year-old Chilean who played college golf at Texas Tech and is ranked No. 100 in the world, takes a 3-shot lead into the final round. He'll play in the final group with fellow 27-year-old Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick(-6). The group right in front of them is two 25-year-olds who both played college golf at Wake Forest. Will Zalatoris (-6) couldn't hold his third round lead, but is still just three shots back while PGA Tour rookie Cameron Young (-5) continues his strong play this year. 

All four of those rising starts are shooting for their first PGA Tour win, and of course first Major Championship title.  

And if 31-year-old Mexican pro and former Oklahoma University golfer Abraham Ancer (-4) can rally, he'll capture his first Major and second PGA Tour win - same for 35-year-old Irishman Seamus Power (-3). 

PGA Championship Odds

A scan of top online sportsbook Bookmaker's adjusted odds to win shows the favoritism towards Pereira. 

- Pereira (+145)
- Fitzpatrick (+360)
- Zalatoris (+425)
- Young (+816)
- Ancer (+1277)
- Thomas (+2857)
- Power (+4550) 
- Bubba Watson (+8050)
- Rory McIlroy (+12000)
- Sam Burns (+12000)

Past major champions and PGA Championship winners Justin Thomas (-2) and Rory McIlroy (E) both played poorly in Round 3 shooting 4-over 74. McIlroy was the Round 1 leader and became the favorite to win at +250.

You can follow and bet the live betting odds on the BetOnline platform as the PGA Championship championship continues through Round 4 as a first time PGA Tour champion is crowned. 

PGA Championship Facts and Trends

A look at the Justin Ray golf reports and updated stats and notes shows some significant trends pointing to a win by one of the top golfers on the leaderboard starting Sunday. 

Each of the previous 33 major champions were at/within 4 shots of the lead entering the final round.

Also, Pereira is just the seventh player since 2000 to hold the outright 54-hole lead in a major when ranked 100th or worse in the world ranking. Two of the previous six went on to win, including last year’s champion, Phil Mickelson (ranked 115th). Pereira also ranks fourth on the Tour in greens in regulation at more than 71 percent, and since last July, he is one of just four players to average a half-stroke or more per round in both strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach. 

And to show you how volatile putting can be, and why it's so difficult to determine and pick weekly winners on the PGA Tour, Pereira leads the field in strokes gained putting, a statistic he entered the week ranked 116th in on the tour for the season.

Matt Fitzpatrick is ranked No. 17 in the world - highest of the leaders in the PGA Championship. He's not only improved on every strokes gained statistic this season over last, but he’s also the only player on the PGA Tour right now ranked in the top 25 in every strokes gained measurement - Off the Tee, Approach, Tee to Green, Around Green and Putting.

Will Zalatoris was the third round leader and had odds to win of +240. Now he's fallen back after a 3-over 73 in Round 3. 

Cameron Young has finished top three this PGA Tour season four times, a number only surpassed by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (five), who missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Young ranks second on the tour in strokes gained off-the-tee, trailing only reigning U.S. Open champ Jon Rahm (+8), who shot 76 Saturday.

PGA Championship Picks and Bets

BetOnline has a more than two dozen final round match-ups available to bet, and also offers both moneyline and laying or taking a half a stroke with separate odds. As I push towards and outright winner and full tournament match-up winner, you can follow my Twitter feed as I determine any final round match-ups to bet.

I have some tournament match-ups in the balance on Sunday with most interest in Fleetwood (E) vs Woodland (-1). I'm shooting for another winner on Fleetwood to improve to 13-6 this year on posted tournament match-ups following last year's sizzling 17-5 start through May.  

But a bigger payoff and bonus is in place for an outright winner. My online sportsbook accounts have pre-tournament win tickets on Pereira (200/1), Zalatoris (36/1 and 41/1) and Fitzpatrick (46/1). I'll tune in for some of the final round action, and should we fail to cash in with one of those players, I'll  take a break from betting golf until next month's U.S. Open. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper including winning PGA Tour results. FairwayJay chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay

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