NFL Playoff Picks -- Bills-Ravens: Who'll Be Better in Their "Predictable" Offense?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Jan 16th, 2021 6:26:27 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Buffalo Bills will try to stay hot as they face the Baltimore Ravens, also a hot team, in the AFC playoffs on Saturday night in Orchard Park.


The Buffalo Bills had been on a covering streak of eight straight games going into last week's contest against the Indianapolis Colts. Well, they did not get the cover, but they got the victory. Now they will move forward into the AFC divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens, where Lamar Jackson is happy to have slain a bit of a playoff dragon with a victory last week.

The kickoff is at 8:15 PM ET at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, and if you are a BetAnySports customer, you can place wagers in real time after the kickoff with Sports Betting Prime.

The key factors for Buffalo include the fact that they have a much stronger offensive attack this year than they did last season, when they where held to just 209 yards against the Ravens. but even though Baltimore held Josh Allen to 17 completions in 39 attempts, they only won the game by seven points (24 - 17)..

This year we can come to the conclusion that the Bills are probably not as stingy defensively, but we can also say that Allen is a much different quarterback. Here is a guy who finished fifth in the NFL in passing yardage, with 37 touchdowns during the regular season. So don't expect a cakewalk for the Baltimore defense.

However, let's acknowledge that the Ravens have improved throughout the season in their ability to stop opposition passing attacks. They are, in fact, second in the NFL, and first in the AFC, in yards allowed per attempt, at 5.9. They have outstanding defensive backs, including Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith, so don't have any doubts about the fact that they are going to aggressively defend what Stefon Diggs can do. Diggs had 127 catches for 1532 yards this season. And Buffalo did not leave a lot of mystery as to what its attack was going to be about.

Devin Singletary was the leading rusher with 687 yards, but was only 25th in the league in that category. The Bills threw the ball 61% of the time on first down, and this is clearly the way they want to advance the football.

In the NFL Playoff odds that have been established on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, Buffalo is the favorite at-home:

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens + 2.5 (-105)

Over 49.5 points -110
Under 49.5 points - 110

Baltimore doesn't leave a lot of doubt in terms of its basic game plan on offense, which is to run the football and stick to a low-variance passing game if it all possible. Marquise Brown is the most targeted wide receiver, with Willie Snead getting a lot less attention. Mark Andrews, the tight end, has been targeted 88 times. All told, quarterback Lamar Jackson has used either Brown or Andrews almost 50% of the time when looking to throw the ball.

The Ravens use a pretty effective running back-by- committee system, but it is Jackson himself who really provides the variation in the ground attack. Let's face it-when he drops back, you really don't know what he's going to do with the football. Some teams have gotten a pretty good handle on him by containing him was in the pocket. That would seem to be something Buffalo has to do. If they can't, they'llhave to improve on the 4.7 yards per carry they have allowed.

But we should mention that in a recent six-game stretch to close out the season, the Ravens have averaged 425.5 yards per game, which would have led the NFL if it had been projected over an entire season. So they are definitely rounding into form, even though not all of the defenses they had faced have been top -shelf. In the last three games, Jackson has called his own number more often, with 313 rushing yards. Buffalo certainly has a quarterback who can run with the ball in Allen, but he's more like a fullback running like a Mack truck. Jackson is more like a world-class sprinter who can very easily turn a broken play into a big play, right away.

It is our feeling that Baltimore has the advantage in terms of a matchup between teams that are somewhat - and we'll use the term - "predictable" in their play distribution the offensive end. They will do more blitzes than anyone, and Allen has completed less than 50% of his passes when facing pressure. Jackson doesn't get blitzed a lot (just 104 times), because the penalties for swinging and missing are so great.

That's the kind of thing that could work for the Ravens in this game, and there are other edges for them to exploit, including the special teams, were they consistently get the best field position in the NFL.

Is it any surprise that at this time of the year, John Harbaugh has his team playing some of his best football? Last week was not an easy assignment against the Tennessee Titans, but they made Derrick Henry, the best running back on earth, a virtual non-factor. Don't discount the possibility that they can take away the best thing Buffalo can do. So we will grab the points with the visitor here.

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