Week 3 NFL Odds and Predictions

It’s not easy becoming an NFL starting quarterback. Not everybody can step right in and assert themselves like, say, CJ Stroud did last season.

In our NFL picks this week we take a look at some teams that have QB’s who are still developing. One of those teams (the Carolina Panthers) have already benched Bryce Young. The Chicago Bears are experiencing growing pains with Caleb Williams; the Indianapolis Colts are doing the same with Anthony Richardson. And Bo Nix has not been lighting up the stat sheet for the Denver Broncos.

These quarterbacks continue the struggle in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. We’ll take a quick look at some of these games. 

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CAROLINA PANTHERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 4:05 PM ET

NFL Odds from BetOnline:

Las Vegas Raiders -4.5
Carolina Panthers +4.5

Over 40.5 points -110
Under 40.5 points -110vThe word just came down from first-year head coach Dave Canales that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is being benched, with shopworn veteran Andy Dalton replacing him. One can only wonder what went on in the organization over the last few days regarding this. Owner Dave Tepper advocated drafting Young, perhaps in the face of opinions to the contrary. And it would appear obvious that Canales, who has a reputation for working with quarterbacks, was brought in to help develop the former Heisman Trophy winner. 

We’re not going to presume this means the team has given up on Young. So shouldn’t these current difficulties be part of the growing pains? Obviously, juxtaposition to CJ Stroud has been made. And Young doesn’t look good by comparison.

Over these first two games the Panthers have achieved just 3.5 yards per play, which is the second-lowest figure in the NFL (only Chicago has been worse). Young has thrown 20 passes that have gone more than ten yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and completed just six of them, with three interceptions. So he doesn’t stretch out a defense. And Carolina obviously doesn’t have any kind of ground threat that can help them control a game.

So does Dalton give the Panthers, as Canales has put it, their “best chance to win”? Well, maybe this week he does. 

But he’s still Andy Dalton. And that means you’re going to get something rather mediocre. Then again, mediocre might be a step up from what Young can give them right now.

The Raiders made a hell of a comeback last week on the road against the Baltimore Ravens, who, truth be told, kind of went to sleep. But let’s not make believe they are dripping with explosiveness. They are last in the league in rushing, and Gardner Minshew has really short-armed it, averaging 5.5 Intended Air Yards per throw, which is 30th among the NFL’s starting QB’s. 

If you’re looking for a difference-maker here, it’s that Minshew has the combination of wide receiver Davante Adams and rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who had 208 yards between them against the Ravens. We do not mind being on the side of the “under,” but we must also concede that the Silver and Black have far more working parts.

THE PLAY:  RAIDERS (-4.5)

DENVER BRONCOS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, 1 PM ET

NFL Odds from BetOnline:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
Denver Broncos +6.5

Over 39.5 points -110
Under 39.5 points -110

There seemed to be a lot of emotional effort put forward by the Bucs in last week’s win over Detroit, which they referred to as a “circled” game. So can they bounce back and work themselves into a fever pitch against Denver?

Do they have to? This appears to be a difficult period for the Broncos. As of this writing Sean Payton had not made any decisions to bench Bo Nix, so we’ll assume he’s still in the saddle.

The decision to draft Nix so high in the first round indicates, obviously, that Payton felt Nix could run a preferred short passing offense and eventually develop a level of effectiveness that could remind some of Drew Brees. Nix fits the bill as a short passer; but the problem is that he doesn’t go too far beyond that.

He’s already distinguished himself to an extent, in that his range is incredibly limited. This may not be all that surprising to some, but he has completed less than 31% of his passes that have been thrown more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And in 36 attempts of that type he’s been picked off three times.

Denver needs a running game. But there’s even worse news there. Nix is the only quarterback ever to lead his team in rushing in each of his first two career games. So are the Broncos going to be a very difficult team to defend for Todd Bowles and his staff?

Not that Tampa Bay showed much more on the offensive end against Detroit last week. They were doubled up by the Lions. Baker Mayfield completed twelve passes. And HE led the team in rushing.

This should be a low-scoring contest. But we’ll fade Nix.

THE PLAY: TAMPA BAY -6.5

CHICAGO BEARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 1 PM ET

NFL Odds from BetAnySports:

Indianapolis Colts -1 (-115)
Chicago Bears +1 (-105)

Over 43.5 points -112
Under 43.5 points -108

The Bears have gained an average of three yards per play through the first two games, and that’s the lowest in the National Football League. Caleb Williams is finding out that it’s not as easy eluding defenders as it was at Oklahoma and USC. He was sacked seven times last weekend by Houston, and he’s got to learn to make decisions quicker.

Meanwhile, unlike two of the other QB’s we’ve discussed in this piece (Young and Nix), Anthony Richardson of the Colts really gets the ball downfield. In fact, he leads the NFL by a wide margin with 13.7 Intended Air Yards per attempt.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t always know where it’s going. Richardson is less than 50% accurate and has been intercepted four times.

So let’s just say both of these guys are works in progress. Not sure how much we’re going to get out of them, except mistakes.

THE PLAY: UNDER 43.5

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