Preview and predictions for Game 5 of the NBA Finals

To a lot of observers, the Indiana Pacers looked like a pretty good bet to pull themselves to within one victory of their first NBA championship on Friday night. They led by seven points at the end of three quarters, but their good fortune did not go the whole route.

Instead, the Oklahoma City Thunder came on big during the final period, shutting down Indiana's long game and getting a huge effort from the most formidable offensive force in the league, all of which fueled a 111-104 victory that evened up the series at two games apiece and gave OKC the home court advantage back.

Indiana led 87-80 going into the fourth quarter of Friday night's Game 4, but the Thunder came alive while the Pacers went cold. Oklahoma City shot 60% from the field, while Indiana hit 27.8%, which included a goose egg in eight three-point attempts. The NBA's MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, scored 15 of his 35 points, and OKC's 31-17 margin clinched it.

So now it is essentially down to a best two-out-of-three. Monday night's game, which is scheduled for a 8:35 PM ET tipoff at the Paycom Center (home floor of the Thunder), will be televised on ABC.

In the NBA Finals odds that have been posted on Game 5 by the people at BetOnline, OKC is laying points:

Oklahoma City Thunder -9
Indiana Pacers +9

Over 223 Points -110
Under 223 Points -110

And on the money line.....

OKC -420
Indiana +330

It's kind of hard to believe that in this day and age, an NBA team could win a game, particularly one of such major importance, despite hitting only three triples. Yet that is what Oklahoma City did here.

OKC goes bigger in Game 4

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault decided to put his two big men on the floor together at the start of the game, and that effect was felt. Chet Holmgren had 14 points and 15 rebounds. isaiah Hartenstein was not all that productive, but he had 21 minutes of action and forced the Pacers to go with a bigger lineup at times. OKC hit 62.5% of its field goal attempts in the paint; this was their best percentage of this kind in the series. And despite the fact that Indiana had a 21-11 edge in assists, OKC had a positive margin of 14 points in the paint and 23-11 in second chance points.

Where this thing was won for the Thunder

What should be noted as well is that the advantage Indiana enjoyed in bench production in Game 3 was negated on Friday night, and that was almost solely the work of Alex Caruso, the defensive ace who hit seven of his nine shots from the field on the way to 20 points, and also made five steals. Caruso and Holmgren both registered a +14 on the plus/minus scale.

Over the first three quarters, Indiana had a 33-6 advantage in terms of points generated by treys, but that didn't matter in the ultimate result because of the oh-fer they took from beyond the arc over the final twelve minutes.

There were 71 free throws taken in Game 4. The Thunder scored 34 points from the line - nine more than Indiana - despite committing only one more personal foul. It is absolutely not advantageous to send either SGA or Jalen Williams to the line; they hit all 21 attempts from the charity stripe between them. Gilgeous-Alexander had eight free throws in the fourth quarter alone.

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Individual performances through four games

So far in the series, Holmgren has hit only 41% of his field goal attempts, but he's been on fire from the line, sinking 18 of 19. That's 94.7%, a huge leap from the 75.5% he posted in the regular season. SGA and Jalen Williams have made a combined 88.7% of free throws. So this team is not leaving a lot of points on the table.

Holmgren, by the way, has been by far the top defensive rebounder in this series, at 30.6% of chances. And Caruso has been fire off the bench, at 54.5% FG's and hitting half of his shots from downtown. He also has the best Defensive Rating in the first four games (106).

SGA (32.8 ppg) is the high scorer in this series, which is not a big surprise. Indiana, on the other hand, has exhibited more scoring balance. Six Pacers have averaged in double digits, and the top four Usage figures fall between 22.7% and 25.2%. Tyrese Haliburton has shot 50% from the field, and Bennedict Mathurin, who caught only about 14 minutes in Game 4 after being such a huge factor in Game 3, has been a 57.7% shooter.

What's kind of interesting is that Myles Turner, the Indiana big man, is only 39.5% from the floor during the NBA Finals. Perhaps it's been a bad idea for him to have taken 20 of his 43 shots from three-point territory (he's made only four of them, including 0-for-6 in Game 4). With two OKC bigs in the game, he can only draw one of them outside if he shoots from long range.

Forecast for Game 5

The Game 4 pace of 97.7 was lower than usual for these teams, but only slightly so. But there were only 158 shots taken, the lowest figure in the series. With all of the stoppages for fouls, you'd think the scoring total might be higher. And this game looked as if it might be gliding over the posted total when they went to the locker rooms at halftime. But after combining for 117 points in the first half, they scored only 98 in the second.

If OKC can win this game, the worst that could happen for them is that they play a seventh and deciding game at home. Still, it is tough for me to get comfortable with a nine-point spread.

What strikes me is that neither of these teams has been able to really get out there and do what they prefer to do offensively, which is to score points on the run. In fact, there were only 19 fast break points in Game 4, and this represents a figure that is better than what has been produced by the top two fast break defenses in the regular season.

This posted total reflects the oddsmakers reacting to the way these games have gone; for the opener it was 228.5, and it has dropped, of course. So yes, that takes some of the value out of it.

But when you look at these games, only one of them has gone over the total of 223, and that was the rout by the Thunder in which they emptited the benches and things got sloppier on defense late. We'll continue to go "under," but not necessarily as enthusiastically as we did before.


As things stand, OKC is favored at -500 to win the series, while Indiana is at +383, as it is posted at BetOnline, which provides more betting choices on the NBA Finals than anybody, not to mention Prop Builder, where you can explore all the angles. And it's fast and convenient to join up with an account, as you can use your debit card or any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options!