Winning Situations to Support on Stronger Teams Following Bye Week
The NFL bye weeks started in Week 5, and now we have some historically proven ATS situations to evaluate and support. Use these situations for teams coming off a bye as a guide as you further analyze and evaluate the stats, situations, scoring and match-ups.
Teams are starting to form an identity, and the stats can be used to assist you more in your weekly handicap and match-up analysis. The injury list grows each week and can clearly affect a team's performance, and must be considered when evaluating the games and match-ups each week. This is what the analytics, computer programs and historical ATS situations and trends don't factor into the analysis. Significant season-ending injuries to some of the league's stars in Week 5 included Giants WR Odell Beckham and Texans DE J.J. Watt and LB Whitney Mercilus.
Through the first five weeks of the 2017 regular season, there were seven games that featured a favorite of 9-points or more. In Week 6, there are currently five teams favored by 9 or more points at the leading offshore sports books – Texans (-9.5), Patriots (-9.5), Falcons (-11), Redskins (-10) and Broncos (-12).
What's interesting to note is that on the look ahead week 6 lines (advance lines by selected sports books put out before the week 5 games are played), the Texans were -8.5, Falcons -9.5, Redskins -7 and Broncos -6. The sports books understand that they will have a tough time getting public bettors to bet on those team's opponents with recent results and overall performances by the Browns, Dolphins, 49ers and NY Giants clearly impacting the betting lines in those games.
Is it an overreaction or will these 'bad' teams start to perform better? Time will tell, but big favorite bettors won't be shy in betting against these 'losers' and poor performing teams with the Browns, Giants and 49ers all still winless (0-5) this season. Know too that since 2014, favorites of 9-or-more points are 55-42 ATS. These games have tended to see a little less scoring as well with the under cashing in 53% of the time.
Dallas and Seattle have a bye in Week 6, and then hit the road in Week 7 where both will be favored. Dallas at San Francisco and Seattle at NY Giants. According to Sports Insights, these favorites off a bye on the road are 49-23 ATS
Sports Insights, an analytics company with innovative sports betting software, also produced this info on teams playing off a bye.
Since 2003, NFL teams off a bye (playing an opponent on normal rest) are 203-169 ATS (54.6%) for a profit of +23.52 units and 6.3% ROI. But must note that from 2010 to 2016, teams off a bye are just 106-99 (51.7%) ATS, +2.41 units.
I've been able to narrow that situation down further with more research and info from respected resources. The premise is that we have a stronger and superior team playing at home off a week of rest. These teams often have solid stats to support being favored by more than a touchdown, and they are rested and ready to perform at a high level.
What we're looking for is any NFL team off a bye, playing at home, with a line greater than 6 and less than 13.5.
Teams in this situation have gone 55-16 ATS (77.5%) since the start of the 2003 season, including 67-4 straight up. That might help some survivor players this week if they have not yet used the Broncos, Falcons or Redskins, as those three teams fit the profile of the rested and ready home team off a bye this week.
The average line in this 70+ game sample size has been nearly 9-points per game. Teaser players might also like knowing that a 6-point teaser on these big favorites taking the line down has produced 64 winners in the 71 games.
The Falcons are a team to note this week, as Atlanta (3-1) lost their first game of the season prior to their bye week at home to Buffalo with three turnovers, proving very costly in a game they had strong stats edges and nearly 400 yards offense in a 23-17 defeat. With three East Coast road games on deck and now trailing the Panthers by a half-game in the NFC South, the Falcons look like a team that will fly on their home turf this week over an opponent who cannot keep pace. Miami enters off a 16-10 win vs. Tennessee in which they generated just 178 total yards offense at 3.0 yards-per-play. For the season, the dreadful Dolphins offense is last in the league in numerous categories including scoring (10 PPG), yards per game (231) and yards per play (3.9). Add in some banged-up offensive players, poor performing QB Jay Cutler and leading receiver DeVante Parker (ankle) leaving last week's game on crutches following the victory, and it looks like the Falcons will fry the fish with favorite bettors piling on in week 6.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay