Very few teams have been able to catch up with the Alabama Crimson Tide. But those who have were rewarded. Nate Oats' team led the nation in scoring this season, tallying over 91 points per game, but they still lost eleven games. So obviously there are some leaks elsewhere.
One team that is convinced they can exploit some of those leaks is the Grand Canyon Antelopes, who won the Western Athletic Conference championship and then proceeded to score an upset victory over Saint Mary's in the opening round of play.
These teams clash on Sunday night at 7:10 PM ET in Spokane, WA.
In the NCAA Tournament odds that have been posted on this game by the people at BetOnline, Alabama is the favorite, but Grand Canyon is getting some respect:
Alabama Crimson Tide -6
Grand Canyon Antelopes +6
Over 170 points -110
Under 170 points -110
One can't argue with the fact that Alabama is the favorite; after all, they are sometimes very machine-like as they endeavor to put the ball in the hoop. They can seemingly shoot from anywhere - 37% from the arc, 57.7% inside the three-point line (eighth best in the country) and 77.7% from the free throw line.
They have a 6-1 guard named Mark Sears who is dynamic to say the least. Sears has averaged 21.4 points on the season, and he really stepped up in the first round game against Charleston, chalking up 30. He's hard to stop.
Admittedly this is a different kind of opponent for GCU. Saint Mary's is one of those oh-so-slow teams that takes its time almost every time down the floor, and in point of fact there are only six teams in the entire country that hold the ball longer than they do before putting up a shot.
Alabama, on the other hand, is the second fastest team in the nation in terms of the average length of time it holds the ball before shooting. I guess that's how you get to score 91.3 points per game.
So it's like GCU is going from facing a pitcher who relies on a change-up to one who throws a 103 mph fastball.
That's usually a tough thing to deal with, and we don't doubt that it will be. But the story is not as simple as all that.
Grand Canyon was able to take advantage of opportunities at the free throw line to beat the Gaels. They got 36 foul shots. And guess what? That's not out of character for them at all. In fact, almost 25% of the points they have scored this season have come at the line.
And now this is where the problem may lie for 'Bama. They simply aren't able to defend without fouling. They are tenth worst in the nation in personal fouls per game (over 20) and opponents have scored almost 23% of their points at the line.
This gives Grand Canyon something to work with. And since GCU is among the top ten teams in the country in the all-important statistic of Effective Field Goal Percentage defense, we believe they can do enough to keep this within the number.
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