NCAA Tournament Betting -- Wisconsin-James Madison: Is J-Mad an upset special for Friday?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Fri, Mar 22nd, 2024 5:34:49 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Wisconsin, coming off a strong performance in the Big Ten tournament, gets ready for an upset challenge from 31-3 James Madison.


The James Madison Dukes, formerly of the Atlantic 10 but now doing business in the Sun Belt Conference, have found a great deal of success as a new FBS football team. But they would like to have as much or even more success in basketball. They find themselves with one of the best records in the country and with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and BetOnline customers can catch their opening round game against the Wisconsin Badgers at 9:40 PM ET on CBS. The site is the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

James Madison sports a sizzling record of 31-3 (18-14-1 ATS) and has a thirteen-game winning streak, which is the longest in the nation that is still active. Are they as good as that record, within the context of playing against the best teams in the nation? Probably not. But Wisconsin is not likely one of the elite teams out there.

We last saw the Badgers in action in the finals of the Big Ten tournament, as they were trying to complete an upset run. But they were turned away by Illinois, which came back from ten points down in the second half.

Meanwhile, JMU tore through the latter part of its Sun Belt schedule, then defeated Arkansas State in the finals there. What leads to a lot of curiosity about their record is that the Dukes won in an upset over Michigan State in their opening game of the season, but didn't really beat another notable opponent for the rest of the year.

Wisconsin (22-13 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) defeated a VERY formidable opponent to reach the Big Ten championship game, with a thrilling 76-75 overtime victory over Purdue. Zach Edey had 28 points for the Boilermakers, but the Badgers kept the rest of the lineup in relative check.

In the NCA ATournament betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, Wisconsin is laying points:

Wisconsin Badgers -5.5
James Madison Dukes +5.5

Over 144 points -110
Under 144 points -110

Wisconsin plays VERY slowly, as they are 338th in offensive tempo. The ringleader is Chucky Hepburn, who is one of those sure-handed point guards a team needs to go far. The potential explosive scorer is AJ Storr, who poured 30 points into the basket at Northwestern and 24 against Illinois. One of the big men who can shoot is Steven Crowl, a 7-foot center who will step out and hit threes (47% for the season).

But guess what? We're not sure how this will translate to higher-level opponents, but JMU is the second best team in the nation (statistically) in defending against three-point shots, allowing only 28.6%. If they are on their game, the Badgers aren't going to be more one-dimensional than they might have intended.

And you want to see a contrast? Wisconsin is one of the WORST teams in the country in defending the triple, ranking 345th (out of 365 teams). That's a potential problem, because James Madison is not only proficient at shooting from beyond the arc (36.4%), but they can get such production out of several people, including Noah Friedel, who has 73 treys. Certainly the door is open for that.

The Dukes can shoot on the inside and the outside. They may be able to force Wisconsin into a faster pace, which is what they like to do. They have the Sun Belt Conference player of the year, Terrence Edwards, who carries a 17 ppg average. TJ Bickerstaff, at 6-9, is a solid rebounder on both ends of the floor.

Wisconsin, on an overall basis, did not come charging to the finish, losing nine of 15. If James Madison comes in unintimidated, they have the matchup situation to make this work. Take the points.


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