NCAA Football Picks – Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss Hopes They Have an “OK Corral” vs. Baylor

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Jan 1st, 2022 2:18:11 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda and Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin match wits in the Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans.


Lane Kiffin is one of those coaches who brings explosive offense with him wherever he goes. And with the Ole Miss Rebels he has one of the most prolific offenses in the country; one that has averaged over 500 yards per game.

Dave Aranda has been at a number of coaching stops, but he says he is very comfortable right now with the Baylor Bears, where he took over after the departure of Matt Rhule and has out together one of the premier defensive units in the nation.

For BetOnline patrons, it will be an interesting chess match between these two minds as these teams clash in the Sugar Bowl, which begins at 8:45 PM ET at the Superdome in New Orleans.

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It's Kiffin's second season in Oxford, and how much of an impact has he had? Well, before he arrived, the program had gone over 600 yards in a game just 16 times in its history. Under Kiffin, that's happened 19 times already.

And of course, the big gun for Kiffin has been Matt Corral, who had been battling with John Rhys Plumlee for the starting quarterback job in 2019, and emerged as a star and top NFL prospect under Lane's tutelage.

Kiffin had some material to work with, as Corral was a top-five QB prospect in high school before deciding on Ole Miss. And now he just might be the first quarterback taken in the draft this coming spring.

Guys like him might be expected to opt out of the bowl games, as it puts them at risk of an injury. But Corral has never thought about sitting out the Sugar Bowl, as he couldn't run out on Kiffin, who molded him. And there's a chance that Corral could get a leg up in his draft stock.

In the NCAA football odds that have been posted on this Sugar Bowl game by the folks at BetOnline, the Rebels are a slight favorite:

Ole Miss Rebels -1
Baylor Bears +1

Over 59.5 points -110
Under 59.5 points -110

Corral threw for 3339 yards and completed 68.4% with 8.8 yards per attempt. He also averaged just below 50 rushing yards per contest. He is not the only standout Rebel sticking around. Wide receiver Braylon Sanders has averaged over 22 yards per reception. All-America defensive lineman Sam Williams is another guy who wouldn't think of opting out of the game.

In point of fact, Ole Miss doesn't have any "opt-outs" for this game. And that should be a clear signal. People like Corral don't remain in the fold unless there is quite an incentive to do well.

Aranda has affected a turnaround of the Baylor program, which won the Big 12 title in his second season, after he spent four years as an assistant at LSU. He is an intelligent, calm, studious type, and is well-respected as a tactician. Kiffin will have a challenge out-smarting him.

But the Rebels will try to do it with pace, which is something Kiffin can continue even though offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby departed to take the Oklahoma job (Charlie Weis Jr. has been hired in his place). These guys run an awful lot of plays, and make it real difficult for opponents to substitute defensive personnel.

Ole Miss is not a one-trick pony; they are a well-rounded team. They are ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game. And their defense showed a turnaround of 13.3 points allowed per contest, which was fourth best in the country, with the sixth most sacks per game as well. So there is a reason they are #8 in the Associated Press poll.

With the edge - and a considerable one - at quarterback, they look like a pretty solid choice for us here.

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