Preview and pick for Yale at Auburn

BetOnline patrons may know a little about Bruce Pearl, the coach of the Auburn Tigers. He climbed upo the ladder, from four seasons at Wisconsin-Milwaukee to six at Tennessee and now ten at Aubuirn. Everywhere, he's been a winner. But he has yet to win a national championship, despite eight different seasons where he has won at least 25 games.

This may not be the best team he's had at Auburn, but it may be the deepest. And now he takes that team into the East Regional as the #4 seed. And he's got the Ivy League champions waiting for him.

The Yale Bulldogs are fortunate to be here, to say the least. They won the Ivy title in almost impossible fashion with a last second shot against Brown. No one should be under the impression that they are not capable, but they've got a big hill to climb as they engage with the War Eagle on Friday afternoon (4:15 PM ET) at the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Spokane, WA.

Auburn is the champion of the highly-competitive SEC, beating Florida by 19 points in the finals. They were headed to the Big Dance as an at-large team anyway, although outside of a win over bitter rival Alabama, they didn't have wins over "elite" opponents. Yale was down by six points to Brown with 27 seconds left in the Ivy League title game, but at that time the Bruins fumbled things away and allowed the Elis to make a near-miracle comeback to win at the buzzer.

It's not that Yale completely a "backdoor" team coming into the tournament. They are 22-9 SU and 15-12-2 against the spread. Auburn is 27-7 SU and 21-13 ATS.

In the March Madness betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, Auburn is a double-digit favorite:

Auburn Tigers -13.5 (-113)
Yale Bulldogs +13.5 (-107)

Over 140.5 points -105
Under 140.5 points -115

if you are looking for strengths on the part of Yale, it may be that they are successful in controlling the tempo. James Jones, who is in his 25th season at the school, instills discipline, and his team is in the Top 20 nationally in turnover percentage (on the offensive end). They are slow, taking a little over 19 seconds per possession. And they are also 329th in Adjusted Tempo. They don't seem to take as many three-pointers as other teams that are very deliberate in the half-court.

Danny Wolf is a seven-footer who supplies the inside presence for Yale. And not many Ivy League teams have that luxury. He really asserted himself in the league championship game, with 13 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Auburn doesn't have a seven-footer, but the Tigers have one of the nation's top players on the inside. Johni Broome is a 6-10 transfer from Morehead State who does just about everything. That was evident in the SEC title game as he registered 19 points, eleven rebounds and three blocked shots. He is currently #2 in KenPom's Player of the Year rankings.

Broome's season averages are 167.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, and they could actually be higher, except that he plays less than 25 minutes a game. That's no reflection on him; instead, it's an indication that Pearl really spreads the minutes around. No less than ten players on the roster are averaging at least 13 minutes per contest. That kind of thing has a tendency to wear an opponent down. And when you look at Yale, they are 321st in the country in the percentage of minutes its bench plays. By comparison, Auburn is eighth.

That, together with the fact that Auburn's defense is #1 in the country in Effective Field Goal Percentage (ninth vs. triples, BEST vs. two's), and we think they can extend a margin, even if the reserves are in. So we're laying the points.

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