MLB Playoff Betting -- Guardians-Yankees: Cleveland's hope is that pitching holds up



In the ALDS New York Yankees and Aaron Judge will take on the Cleveland Guardians, who just shut down the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild card round.

The New York Yankees got off to a rather big early lead in the race for the American League East championship. And they beat back all challenges to gain themselves a first-round bye, which the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays had to slug it out with other opponents in the wild card round and lost.

Now the Cleveland Guardians, who beat the Rays in an awesome pitching display, await them.

NY Yankees free pickThe Bronx Bombers, of course, were very much a focus of attention down the stretch with Aaron Judge's drive toward the home run record. And he got there, finishing with 62 homers. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about his season, which is likely to end with the Most Valuable Player award, is that, in this period where low batting averages are the norm, he managed to combine power and percentage, coming to within five points of the batting title (and the Triple Crown).

And maybe all that public attention contributes to the Yankees being a bit overpriced.

The Guardians are very clearly in their way. This is the youngest team in baseball, and they've gone through a name change. They are also, under Terry Francona, double-tough in the pitching department. They were good enough that in the two games they played against Tampa Bay (this was a best two out of three), they surrendered just nine hits.

Here are the MLB playoff betting odds that are posted in the series, with the Yankees favored:

New York Yankees      -215
Cleveland Guardians  +175

And in Tuesday's Game 1, the Yanks are priced at -210 (Cleveland is +180), with a total of seven runs (Over +100, Under -120 at BetAnySports).

Yankee manager Aaron Boone is committed to a three-man starting rotation, which of course makes sense because there is a day off between each game. Gerrit Cole was slated to make the start in Game 1, and this may bring about some concern, and we say that despite the fact that he gave up just two runs in 12-2/3 innings against the Guardians this year. Cole didn't have a good stretch to end the season, with a 5.22 ERA in his last five starts.

Cleveland Guardians MLB playoff pickCole has allowed 33 home runs, which is obviously a lot. So it may be his good fortune that Cleveland is next to last (29th) in the majors in round-trippers with 137.

By contrast, the Yankees were the MLB pace-setters with 254 dingers. Judge was huge in that department, naturally, but there were others who could park a few, including Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, who hit for low averages but supplied some pop.

Cleveland doesn't have a host of flame-throwers in the rotation, so the Yankees will have the opportunity to make some contact. Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38 ERA) is the Game 1 starter, and the Guardians were 22-10 when he took the mound. He'll be followed by Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88), the winner of the 2020 Cy Young Award, and Trenton McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). That's a nice trio. And Cleveland has a monster closer in Emmanuel Clase, who has 42 saves and a 0.73 WHIP ratio.

Whether the Guardians have an advantage in the bullpen depends on the way you look at it. The Yankees' Clay Holmes, an AL All-Star this year, is currently experiencing shoulder problems. Aroldis Chapman, who wasn't of much use this season, missed a mandatory workout and was left off the ALDS roster.

Cleveland doesn't have a lot of hitters who break windows, aside from Jose Ramirez (29 HR, 126 RBI). And in 19 games in last year's postseason when a team did not hit a homer, they lost 17 times. They have an incredibly low payroll of $69 million. But oddly, they provide a certain amount of value here, because they have consistently solid pitching on the front and back lines. They appear to be worth the price - in the game and the series.

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