Final Four Odds & Preview -- UCLA looks to execute the impossible - well, almost - against Gonzaga

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Apr 3rd, 2021 4:14:53 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The UCLA Bruins have come a long way in the NCAA Tournament, but they'll have to overcome long odds to topple the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium.


The UCLA Bruins are one of the great "legacy" programs in college basketball. And they actually had to play a game to get into the regular bracket for the NCAA Tournament. VCU did this before and got to the Final Four. And now the Bruins have run the gauntlet through the East regional.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are on a mission to make history. They can become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to have a national championship while remaining undefeated. Are they one of the best teams of all-time? Who knows.

Would it be one of the biggest upsets in Final Four history if UCLA beats Gonzaga on Saturday? Maybe; our information tells us that this is the biggest single-game pointspread the Final Four has ever seen.

These teams will do battle on Saturday at 5:14 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium for the right to move on to the finals.

BetOnline offers the chance to wager on hundreds of props when it comes to the Final Four games. You can engage in it right now. And then, after the contest has begun, the "Live Betting" option allows for real-time wagering while you watch the action on CBS.

NCAA Tournament - Final Four @ Indianapolis
GONZAGA BULLDOGS vs. UCLA BRUINS, 8:34 PM ET (TV - CBS)

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds: Gonzaga -14 / Total 145.5

In the process of beating Michigan State, BYU, Abilene Christian, Alabama and Michigan, UCLA has scored 365 points. And Johnny Juzang, who took advantage of immediate eligibility after transferring from Kentucky, has scored 108 of those points. He lifted the team onto his back against Michigan in the Elite Eight, scoring 28 of their 51 points, and the Bruins effectively slowed things to a crawl in the 51-49 victory, limiting the Wolverines to just 51 field goal attempts.

We're not sure any of that is going to work against Gonzaga, which has been known to ignore and discard attempts to allow itself to be slowed down - witness the 98 points they scored against Virginia (early in the season), the masters of making opponents play in quicksand.

And the Bruins need to be prepared for the 'Zags to take Juzang out of the game, for all intents and purposes. They do have other guys who can score, and have shown it at various times, but how reliable will those guys be if Juzang can't ultimately play the "go-to" role?

You have to concede that Gonzaga can play against a number of different styles. That's because they take what they want; they don't wait for what the opponent gives them. And who can defend them? In the previous round they faced a USC team that had been snuffing out one opponent after another. All they did was go up 19 points at the half on the way to an 85-66 win.

The 'Zags won the rebounding battle by a 41-29 margin, while holding USC to 39% from the field, while at the same time connecting on 58% of their shots from two-point range. And keep in mind that the Trojans had the 1-2 punch of brothers Evan and Isaiah Mobley up front, AND were #1 in the nation defending against two-point field goal attempts.

That the Bulldogs are shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc in the tournament is bad news for the Bruins. That is because, at 63.7%, they are the best shooting team in the country INSIDE the arc. UCLA may not be able to stop either of those approaches, but they don't have the depth upfront to handle Drew Timme, who has averaged 25 points over his last three games. They had the depth at one point, but Jalen Hill and Chris Smith were lost to the team. They'll have all they can deal with just keeping Cody Riley out of foul trouble.

If UCLA won the "tempo" part of the game, it would surprise us. Remember that only West Virginia has lost to Gonzaga by less than ten points. If Juzang has a harder time than usual, and the Bruins can't handcuff the Bulldogs' transition game, we don't see this thing going any way but getting out of hand. Sure, the "back door" is available for UCLA, but even that may not be enough. We're laying the points with the unbeatens.


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