College Football Picks -- Air Force is Grounded - That's What Hawaii's Worried About

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Oct 19th, 2019 12:41:42 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Air Force Falcons travel by land, and they hope to impose their will on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors on the big island on Saturday night.


There was a commentator on the radio once who was looking at an Air Force-Hawaii game and said, "Hmmm, well, the last time Air Force won in Hawaii it was the Japanese air force."

That was a clever line, but the reality is, the Falcons actually have a 7-5-1 straight-up record at Aloha Stadium. And they will play there again on Saturday as they take on Hawaii, which absolutely insists that you call their team the "Rainbow Warriors."

It will begin at 11 PM ET, although if you're going to watch it on the CBS Sports Network you'll see that the sun will be out at kickoff, since it will be just 5 PM in Honolulu.

At any rate, if you're a BetAnySports customer you'll be able to keep an eye on this one and place wagers in real time as you enjoy what Live Betting Ultra has to offer.

Don't sell Hawaii short. They have victories over Pac-12 foes like Arizona and Oregon State and walloped Nevada 54-3 a couple of weeks ago. They have the nation's fourth-leading air attack, averaging 351.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Air Force is kind of a misnomer because the Falcons keep the ball on the ground. They are second in the nation in rushing yards, just below 300.

Between these two teams, they have punted the ball only 28 times. So their drives generally have a conclusion somewhere, either with a turnover or a score of some kind.

The Kuter Trophy is at stake in this rivalry that isn't really an annual thing; in fact, the last meeting was back in 2016.

In the college football odds posted at BetAnySports, and with reduced juice, Air Force is laying points on the road in this Mountain West Conference game:

Air Force Falcons -3 (-108)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +3 (-102)

Over 67 points (-105)
Under 67 points (-105)

DJ Hammond was not Air Force's starting quarterback for the entirety of 2018, but it is worth noting that he has already thrown for more yards this season than he did last year (655). So there is a little of that element; Hammond is actually averaging 10.9 yards an attempt.

In Nick Rolovich's offense, Cole McDonald is once again a focus, with 1880 yards and 20 touchdown passes. And there is very little pretense that the 'Bows are looking to establish and sustain something on the ground; at this moment, Washington State is the team that passes the ball most frequently, and they are in the forefront by far (76.86%). But at 64%, Hawaii is second on that list.

And by the way, just in case you were wondering, Air Force, at 19.1%, is right at the bottom, along with the other service academies (Army and Navy).

So needless to say, these squads are about as different in terms of style as can be imagined. But how does that work for us with regard to evaluating and handicapping this game?

Well, no one is going to accuse the Falcons of having a plethora of pass-happy people available for the scout team, so it is safe to say that they won't have somebody like McDonald to practice against. But we would submit that it may be even harder for a team to turn around and get ready for a precision option offense, especially coming off a game with a nationally-ranked opponent, as Hawaii has against Boise State.

Now let's add in the fact that Air Force only had to throw the ball three times on its way to hammering out 340 rushing yards against Fresno State, which has a respectable defense. And that Hawaii has been trouble in trying to stop the run, yielding 5.3 yards per carry.

Another key here is that Air Force does not make a habit of beating itself, as the Falcons are the least penalized team in the country. So Hawaii's not getting easy breaks like that. If you can't stop the run, you've got problems, and the Rainbow Warriors have "stuffed" running plays (held them to zero or negative yardage) only 16% of the time, which barely lands them inside the top 100 out of 130 teams. We're ambivalent about the total, but we're okay with laying the points.


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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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