College Football Odds -- U-Dub and Arizona Might Provide Offensive Duel in Desert

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Oct 12th, 2019 2:28:32 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Washington Huskies may have a headache on their hands as they take on Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson on Saturday night.


By any measure, the Washington Huskies suffered a pretty devastating defeat last week when they lost to Stanford. Can they pick themselves up and move forward? On Saturday night they face an opponent which is a potential pain in the neck when they line up against the Arizona Wildcats in a Pac-12 encounter that will kick off at 11 PM ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson.

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For what it's worth, this has been a series dominated by the home team, which has won eight of the last nine.

Usually when it comes to evaluating and preparing for Arizona, the principal point of discussion involves what to do about Khalil Tate, the Wildcats' elusive quarterback. It seems that the threat of Tate running is greater than the numbers he has produced with it, and perhaps that's the point, because he can then turn around and have a game with over 400 yards through the air, as he had against Colorado.

Tate has had only 290 rushing yards thus far, but he has averaged 7.3 per carry, so while he is not coming up with numbers like he did a coupe of years ago, he's making his runs count.

And one of the things that has frustrated Washington coach Chris Petersen has been an inability on his team's part to neutralize quality running games. In the conference they are giving up more than five yards per carry.

In the college football odds that have been placed on this game, the Huskies are laying points on the road:

Washington Huskies -6 (-103)
Arizona Wildcats +6 (-107)

Over 60 points (-102)
Under 60 points (-108)

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It puzzles some U-Dub fans that in a game that was decided by only ten points, the Huskies ran the football only 22 times. Salvon Ahmed, who's averaging 6.4 yards a pop, logged the ball six times, and most figure that has to change.

Kevin Sumlin likes the passing game, and that would explain why the Wildcats have rushed the ball less than half the time (actually 82nd in the nation in rushing play percentage). But does that play to Tate's strengths? If he can get out of the gate with some significant runs, the answer may be "yes."

Maybe Washington has some weaknesses when it comes to stuffing the run up front. Indeed, they have allowed for a 91.7% Power Success Rate, which is one of the worst in the country, and their "Stuff Rate" is extremely low as well.

At the same time, not only has Arizona given up more passing yards than all but two teams in the nation, its sack rate of 1.8% is worse than everyone but Akron. To give you some perspective, Ohio State's sack rate is 13.9%. Just sayin'.

Arizona has, in recent, history, been tough as a home dog, and they are on a 23-9 ATS run in that role. But Washington is going quietly; not by a long shot, especially if the weather does them any favors at all.

Look for the ground game to operate a little differently than it did last week. But at the same times, expect that Georgia transfer Jacob Eason (66%, only 3 INT's) may have his way with the 'Zona secondary, with room to operate.

The bottom line here is that each team's offense can exploit the principal weakness of the opposition's defense. Could we see a wild one? Assuming Arizona doesn't wilt, we just might, and that would send us OVER the total.

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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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