College Football Bowl Picks -- L.A. Bowl: UCLA plays in front of home folks vs. Boise State

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Dec 16th, 2023 3:18:45 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Boise State Broncos have to start a true freshman QB with no attempts as they play the UCLA Bruins in the L.A. Bowl.


Let's take a look at a couple of bowl games that are being played out West on Saturday. The numbers are those that are currently posted at BetOnline:


L.A. BOWL (7:30 PM ET)

Boise State Broncos vs. UCLA Bruins

NCAA College Football Odds: UCLA -6.5 (-112) / Total: 46.5 Points

These days, it is a fact of life that one of the principal factors in handicapping these college bowl games involves those players who enter themselves into the transfer portal or opt out of the game for the sake of prepping for the NFL Draft. And so it is to be expected that someone like All-America defensive lineman Laiatu Latu of UCLA is not going to be available.

However, the Bruins still possess a tough-as-nails defensive front, and that is going to be an operative factor for us here.

Boise State has had a trying season. They have changed coaches, and the players seem to have responded to the interim guy, Spencer Danielson, to the extent that he has been given the "permanent" job. They rolled down the stretch with four consecutive victories, three of them coming rather easily. The last one was a 44-20 demolition of UNLV in the Mountain West title game.

But the transfer portal hit them too. QB Maddux Madsen, who completed 61% as a freshman, is out with an injury. And Taylor Green, the quarterback with the most attempts, went into the portal.

So who is the signal-caller going to be? Well, it's going to be true freshman CJ Tiller, who has yet to throw his first pass as a collegian. Bush Hamdan, the team's offensive coordinator, says that Tiller has been bringing some "real good energy" as he prepares.

Still;, this is a big task and an intimidating atmosphere, to be sure. The L.A. Bowl is being played at SoFi Stadium, home of the Rams and Chargers.

It would kind of surprise us if Boise State's approach to this game is to be aggressive with the passing game. At least to start, it's going to be ground-oriented, and they've got a good guy to do that with in Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 1262 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Broncos have been most sure of themselves when they are running it (5.3 ypc).

But the problem for them is that UCLA has the capability of shutting that down, even without Latu. Among the Power 5 teams, only one (Penn State) has been as difficult to run on, as the Bruins have allowed just 2.3 yards per carry and 69.6 yards per game. As far as a fundamental matchup is concerned, it's tough to beat this.

What could hold the Bruins back? Well, aside from the fact that they have a hard time moving the ball, UCLA could, under normal circumstances, fall victim to apathy. But even though this isn't their home field, they are the de facto home side. And for Chip Kelly and his staff, this is an ideal "recruiting:" game too.

The PLAYS: UCLA -6.5 (-112) and UNDER 46.5 POINTS

----------------------------------


NEW MEXICO BOWL (5:55 PM ET)

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico State Aggies

BetOnline College Bowl Odds: NMSU -3.5 (-101) / Total: 52.5 Points

Let's concede that NMSU is the team who'll benefit from some "home cooking" and that they are going to have a real charge behind them as they are practically playing at home (well, actually the home of the New Mexico Lobos).

Fresno State will be missing head coach Jeff Tedford, who is out with an illness.

In their first year in Conference USA, the Aggies went to the title game and lost to Liberty for the second time. That ended an eight-game win streak, which included a three-touchdown victory over Auburn.

There is some pretty good balance for Jerry Kill's NMSU squad, and much of that can be attributed to quarterback Diego Pavia, who was named the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year, having compiled 2915 pass yards and 851 on the ground. He's got two running backs (Star Thomas and Monte Watkins) who can go coast-to-coast.

Some Aggies have entered the transfer portal, including top wide receiver Trent Hudson (who's been offered from Minnesota). And that is a concern. But there are a number of locals on this roster. Motivation won't be a problem for those who are staying behind.

Fresno State is an example of a team that really "checked out" down the stretch. After starting the year 8-1, they dragged ass on the way home against San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State, outscored by a 100-53 margin.

The Play: NEW MEXICO STATE -3.5 (-101)

BetOnline has an amazing holiday planned for you with its "12 Days of Deals" promotion..... Every day, you'll be in line for an exclusive holiday gift. You can access risk-free bets, special contests, "Super Boosts" and a whole lot more! Just keep checking the "12 Days of Deals" page to get updates ..... Ans don't forget that it's so easy to climb aboard if you haven't already. Just use your credit card, or any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options, including Bitcoin!


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.