There has been plenty of controversy surrounding both fights that have taken place between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. And as BetOnline patrons know, it was more so the first time they met, where GGG appeared to get the best of it, but had to settle for a draw.
The last meeting took place four years ago, and here they are again, for the third and (we presume) final time, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KO's) is the current middleweight champion as recognized by the IBF, IBO and WBA. He last fought on April 9, as he pounded out a decision over Ryota Murata. He is stepping up to 168 pounds for the first time in his career.
That's where Canelo (57-2-2, 39 KO's) concentrated much of his activity in recent years, unifying the super middleweight titles. He has also been a light heavyweight belt holder, but most recently was defeated at 175 by Dimitri Bivol, who bested him by two points on all three cards on May 7.
The first GGG-Canelo fight took place in September 2017 (the draw). The second meeting (a majority decision for Alvarez) was in September 2018. Golovkin has fought just four times since. And he is 40 years old.
This fight is available on pay-per-view through DAZN.
Here are BetOnline's boxing betting odds on this bout, which is scheduled for 12 rounds:
Canelo Alvarez -500
Gennady Golovkin +395
Over 10.5 Rounds -215
Under 10.5 Rounds +170
When these guys first got together, it looked to this observer as if Golovkin was the physically stronger man, manhandling Canelo at times. But although Dave Moretti gave him the fight by two points, another judge scored it even, and Adelaide Byrd had Canelo rolling by a 118-110 score. The second fight looked more successful for Alvarez, who got a two-point decision on two scorecards (including that of Moretti, who is working this fight).
Canelo has been campaigning above 160 pounds for a while, so the likelihood that GGG is going to impose himself physically upon him isn't great. Now Golovkin is the guy who has to reach up in weight. AND he's 40.
These are operative factors. Yes, GGG has a terrific jab and that is something that can keep Canelo at bay, the way Bivol did, but again, going against a full light heavy is not the same.
Golovkin has not looked like the guy he used to be, so it would surprise us if he was able to come up with something that is going to give him an advantage and keep it, unless it was a big punch at some point. That might require him to either catch Alvarez coming in or find him tired later in the fight.
So is that enough to play the underdog?
The feeling here is that Canelo has the ability to be more busy. And even though Bivol was a tough guy for him to figure out, GGG is no stranger. The older a fighter is, the less favorably he's going to react to getting pushed. Alvarez can push him.
Not that I think he's going to knock GGG out. In fact, it would be surprising if this didn't go past the designated 10.5-round over-under.
But Golovkin is not likely to catch any breaks from the judges; not if he didn't the first couple of times around. That's why we would go with an "exact result" here. Here's what that looks like:
Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision +110
Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ +170
Golovkin by Decision or Technical Decision +600
Golovkin by KO, TKO or DQ +925
Draw or Technical Draw +1400
So we'll take the price of +110 on Canelo by decision.
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