College football teams off a bye week often provide a solid situational edge

Early season college football continues in September, and we now start to see teams with bye weeks on the schedule. I've outlined the September bye week schedule below, with each teams' pre and post bye opponents and recent results against the post-bye opponents. In college football, this can be a real benefit to the rested and prepared team, especially later in the season as teams deal with more fatigue, injuries and pressure to perform in a conference title run or bowl game bid.

When playing at home off a bye, there is a solid situational edge when playing an opponent that is not off a bye, and usually a motivational edge especially if a quality or capable team is off a loss. Redemption can also factor in, but the linemakers and sportsbooks factor these situations into the line. Still, this late season bye situation from Bet Labs database should not be ignored. Home teams with at least 13 days rest playing a conference game past November 1st are 38-21-2 ATS (64%) since 2015. There is an especially strong situation supporting Pac 12 and Mountain West home teams off a bye in November, and we'll review that more in our November bye weeks update.

Some coaches just prepare their players better during a bye week. They game plan and strategize for an opponent better, and add additional plays and insight to assist players in preparation.

These coaches and teams are ones to watch, as the coaches ATS record off a regular season bye is noteworthy.

Gary Patterson, TCU (10-3 ATS) - TCU off bye at Purdue Sept 14
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech (6-1 ATS) - VT off a bye vs Duke Sept 27
Matt Wells, Texas Tech (6-1 ATS) - TT off a bye at Oklahoma Sept 28

A little more on Matt Wells and his intensity taking over Texas Tech this year after success at Utah State.

Meanwhile second-year Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin is just 2-8 ATS off a bye in his career. Arizona is off a bye when the Wildcats hosts UCLA on Sept. 28.

Other bad situational spots include teams playing back-to-back road games against home teams off a bye. This is a positive and profitable profile for the rested and ready home team.

That puts Southern Miss in a bad spot at Troy (-2.5) on Sept. 14.

Same with these three conference road teams in back-to-back road games against teams off a bye Sept. 28.

Louisiana at Georgia Southern
UCLA at Arizona
SMU at South Florida

Plenty of situations and profiles to consider as you evaluate these teams off a bye, and we’ll review more as the season moves along. But recognize scheduling situations and take note of teams off a bye, and those playing at home that may also have additional motivation that includes significant redemption (Arizona Sept. 28).

These are additional pieces to add to your handicapping arsenal, but know that you still must evaluate the match-ups, motivation, injuries, statistical profiles and betting lines at the sportsbooks. The linemaker makes adjustments to early season results, power ratings and to the bye week situation, and especially to rested and ready teams playing with redemption.

For games on Sept 14, the following teams in bold play off a bye:

Northwestern vs UNLV
TCU at Purdue
Iowa State vs Iowa
Notre Dame vs New Mexico
Temple vs Maryland
Navy vs East Carolina
Air Force at Colorado
Troy vs Southern Miss
Toledo vs Murray State

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay