Betting College Football And Evaluating September Bye Weeks



Professional handicapper FairwayJay evaluates the College Football Teams September Bye Weeks Schedule and situations you can bet on.

College football teams off a bye week often provide a solid situational edge

Early season college football continues in September, and we now start to see teams with bye weeks on the schedule. I've outlined the September bye week schedule below, with each teams' pre and post bye opponents and recent results against the post-bye opponents. In college football, this can be a real benefit to the rested and prepared team, especially later in the season as teams deal with more fatigue, injuries and pressure to perform in a conference title run or bowl game bid.

When playing at home off a bye, there is a solid situational edge when playing an opponent that is not off a bye, and usually a motivational edge especially if a quality or capable team is off a loss. Redemption can also factor in, but the linemakers and sportsbooks factor these situations into the line. Still, this late season bye situation from Bet Labs database should not be ignored. Home teams with at least 13 days rest playing a conference game past November 1st are 38-21-2 ATS (64%) since 2015. There is an especially strong situation supporting Pac 12 and Mountain West home teams off a bye in November, and we'll review that more in our November bye weeks update.

NCAA football bye week betting advantagesSome coaches just prepare their players better during a bye week. They game plan and strategize for an opponent better, and add additional plays and insight to assist players in preparation.

These coaches and teams are ones to watch, as the coaches ATS record off a regular season bye is noteworthy.

Gary Patterson, TCU (10-3 ATS) - TCU off bye at Purdue Sept 14
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech (6-1 ATS) - VT off a bye vs Duke Sept 27
Matt Wells, Texas Tech (6-1 ATS) - TT off a bye at Oklahoma Sept 28

A little more on Matt Wells and his intensity taking over Texas Tech this year after success at Utah State.

Meanwhile second-year Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin is just 2-8 ATS off a bye in his career. Arizona is off a bye when the Wildcats hosts UCLA on Sept. 28.

Other bad situational spots include teams playing back-to-back road games against home teams off a bye. This is a positive and profitable profile for the rested and ready home team.

That puts Southern Miss in a bad spot at Troy (-2.5) on Sept. 14.

Same with these three conference road teams in back-to-back road games against teams off a bye Sept. 28.

Louisiana at Georgia Southern
UCLA at Arizona
SMU at South Florida

Plenty of situations and profiles to consider as you evaluate these teams off a bye, and we’ll review more as the season moves along. But recognize scheduling situations and take note of teams off a bye, and those playing at home that may also have additional motivation that includes significant redemption (Arizona Sept. 28).

These are additional pieces to add to your handicapping arsenal, but know that you still must evaluate the match-ups, motivation, injuries, statistical profiles and betting lines at the sportsbooks. The linemaker makes adjustments to early season results, power ratings and to the bye week situation, and especially to rested and ready teams playing with redemption.

Bye Team Conference Pre Bye Post Bye Notes
Sept 14 Vanderbilt SEC at Purdue LSU 7 str losses to LSU
Sept 14 Michigan Big Ten Army at Wisconsin Beat #15 WISC 38-13 LY
Sept 14 Rutgers Big Ten at Iowa Boston College 13 str losses vs BC
Sept 14 Wisconsin Big Ten Central Michigan Michigan Lost to ##12 MICH 38-13 LY
Sept 14 Baylor Big 12 UTSA at Rice Did not play LY
Sept 14 Connecticut AAC Illinois at Indiana Did not play LY
Sept 14 Utah State Mountain West Stony Brook at San Diego State 10 str losses vs SDSU
Sept 14 Fresno State Mountain West Minnesota Sacramento State Did not play LY
Sept 14 San Jose State Mountain West Tulsa at Arkansas First meeting
Sept 14 Marshall Conf USA Ohio Cincinnati Did not play
Sept 14 Old Dominion Conf USA at Virginia Tech at Virginia First meeting
Sept 14 UAB Conf USA at Akron South Alabama Did not play
Sept 14 UTEP Conf USA at Texas Tech Nevada Did not play
Sept 14 Appalachian State Sun Belt Charlotte at North Carolina Did not play
Sept 14 Louisiana Monroe Sun Belt at Florida State at Iowa State Did not play
Sept 21 Penn State Big Ten Pittsburgh at Maryland (Fri) Beat MD 38-3 & 66-3 L2 yrs
Sept 21 Maryland Big Ten at Temple Penn State (Fri) Lost to PS 28-3 & 66-3
Sept 21 Iowa Big Ten at Iowa State MTSU Did not play
Sept 21 Minnesota Big Ten Georgia Southern at Purdue Beat Purdue 41-10
Sept 21 Purdue Big Ten TCU Minnesota Lost to MN 41-10
Sept 21 Virginia Tech ACC Furman Duke (Fri) Beat Duke 31-14
Sept 21 Duke ACC at MTSU at Virginia Tech-Fri Lost to VT 31-14
Sept 21 Georgia Tech ACC The Citadel at Temple First meeting
Sept 21 Oklahoma Big 12 at UCLA Texas Tech Beat TT 51-46
Sept 21 Kansas State Big 12 at Mississippi State at Oklahoma State Beat OKL St 31-12
Sept 21 Texas Tech Big 12 at Arizona at Oklahoma Lost to OKL 51-46
Sept 21 Arizona Pac 12 Texas Tech UCLA Lost to UCLA 31-30
Sept 21 Oregon State Pac 12 Cal Poly Stanford 9 str losses to Stanford, 48-17
Sept 21 Cincinnati AAC Miami, OH at Marshall Did not play
Sept 21 USF AAC South Carolina St SMU Did not play
Sept 21 Memphis AAC at South Alabama Navy (Thurs) Lost to Navy 22-21
Sept 21 Navy AAC East Carolina at Memphis (Thurs) Beat Memphis 22-21
Sept 21 UNLV Mountain West at Northwestern at Wyoming Did not play
Sept 21 MTSU Conf USA Duke at Iowa Did not play
Sept 21 Western Kentucky Conf USA Louisville UAB Did not play
Sept 21 Northern Illinois MAC at Nebraska at Vanderbilt Did not play
Sept 21 Georgia State Sun Belt at Minnesota Louisiana Did not play
Sept 28 LSU SEC at Vanderbilt Utah State Did not play
Sept 28 Georgia SEC Notre Dame at Tennessee Beat TEN 38-12
Sept 28 Missouri SEC South Carolina Troy Did not play
Sept 28 Tennessee SEC at Florida Georgia Lost to #2 Georgia 38-12
Sept 28 Illinois Big Ten Nebraska at Minnesota Lost to MN 55-31
Sept 28 Louisville ACC at Florida State Boston College Lost to BC 38-20
Sept 28 Miami ACC Central Michigan Virginia Tech Beat VT 38-14
Sept 28 Texas Big 12 Oklahoma State at West Virginia Lost to WV 42-41
Sept 28 West Virginia Big 12 at Kansas Texas Beat #15 Texas 42-41
Sept 28 Colorado Pac 12 at Arizona State Arizona Lost to AZ 42-34
Sept 28 Oregon Pac 12 at Stanford California Beat Cal 42-24
Sept 28 Tulane AAC Houston at Army Did not play
Sept 28 Tulsa AAC Wyoming at SMU Beat SMU 27-24
Sept 28 Boise State Mountain West Air Force at UNLV Did not play
Sept 28 San Diego State Mountain West Utah State at Colorado State Did not play
Sept 28 Florida International Conf USA at Louisiana Tech Massachusetts Beat UMASS 63-24
Sept 28 UTSA Conf USA at North Texas at UTEP Beat UTEP 30-21
Sept 28 Ohio MAC Louisiana at Buffalo Beat BUF 52-17
Sept 28 Kent State MAC Bowling Green at Wisconsin First meeting
Sept 28 Bowling Green MAC at Kent State at Notre Dame Did not play
Sept 28 Eastern Michigan MAC Central Conn State at Central Michigan Beat CMU 17-7
Sept 28 Ball State MAC at NC State at Northern Illinois Lost to NIU 24-16
Sept 28 Georgia State Sun Belt at Texas State Arkansas State Lost Ark St 51-35

For games on Sept 14, the following teams in bold play off a bye:

Northwestern vs UNLV
TCU at Purdue
Iowa State vs Iowa
Notre Dame vs New Mexico
Temple vs Maryland
Navy vs East Carolina
Air Force at Colorado
Troy vs Southern Miss
Toledo vs Murray State

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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