Baseball props bets - Marlins at Rockies

You may not be aware of this, but there are a whole lot of baseball props you can take advantage of at BetOnline.

One of the things you can do is bet on is how many strikeouts the starting pitchers in a game are going to have. We'll focus on that, as well as the game line and five-inning line, as the Miami Marlins play at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies.

Let's start with some strikeout props.

GERMAN MARQUEZ - STRIKEOUTS

Over 7.5 Strikeouts +140
Under 7.5 Strikeouts -185

Marquez presents an interesting proposition because it is quite possible that he could go innings. Last season he led the National League in innings pitched and batters faced. This season, in the process of representing the Rockies at the All-Star Game, he has three complete games and averages 5.9 innings per start.

His strikeout rate is 25%, and about one per inning. If you work out the numbers, you'll see that he averages 24.3 batters faced per game. That doesn't give us a great case for the "over" here, because by that model we would expect 6.13 strikeouts from him.

When you take a look at what he has done against the hitters who are likely to be in the Miami lineup, his strikeout rate is lower than his average - 21.9%, to be exact. Through that particular model he would be expected to register 5.32 K's.

So as you can imagine, he would have to go farther than usual to get to this number of 7.5. There is little doubt that he COULD, because he's done that before. But WILL he? We have to play the averages here, and we see that in 22 starts he has had eight or more strikeouts in just six of them.

So even with the knowledge that Miami is fifth in the majors in striking out, we're going to lean "under" in this one.

SANDY ALCANTARA - STRIKEOUTS

Over 4.5 Strikeouts -111
Under 4.5 Strikeouts -116

Here is another challenging prop at BetOnline. Alcantara is not a big strikeout pitcher, as he has fanned just 22.2% of the batters he has faced. We were also surprised to see that he averages more batters faced per game than Marquez (24.6). Based on that info, we'd have an expectation of 5.46 K's for his outing.

Considering what he has done against Colorado's hitters, the sample is not particularly large, but it shows us that he has registered just five strikeouts in 34 Colorado batters faced. That's 14.7%, and if we used that as the only yardstick, we'd be looking at 3.6 strikeouts.

So as they say, the truth lies in between. Let's take other things into consideration, including the fact that he has struck out 23 batters over his last 20 innings, so he's doing better in that regard.

We would lean to the "over" in this one. But that wouldn't be the key play we'd make.

Let's look at what BetOnline has on the game odds and total:

Colorado Rockies (Marquez) -156
Miami Marlins (Alcantara) +144

Over 9.5 Runs -115
Under 9.5 Runs -105

Alcantara is one of those pitchers who is better than his record indicates. At 6-9, he sports an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP ratio of 1.12. These are good numbers.

And the Marlins are also better than their record indicates. According to their "Pythagorean" win-loss record, which is derived from run differential, they should be a game above .500, although they are actually 47-62.

Alcantara has had success pitching against these Rockies hitters. In 34 plate appearances they have only five hits, one of them for extra bases. So they are hitting just .129 against him. And in his start at Coors Field, he allowed only three of the 27 batters against him to hit safely.

So what we're trying to tell you is that Miami, with Alcantara on the mound, is a live dog. We aren't necessarily comfortable dealing with the unknowns, so not knowing the bullpen rotation, we will work with the five-inning line, in which the marlins fetch a price of +135.

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