Preview and pick for the Week 1 NFL matchup between Tampa Bay and Dallas

Our last article saw us looking betting angles for the first week of the NFL season and a preview for the 49ers vs Chicago in Week 1. This week, we are turning our eyes to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, the venue hosting Tampa Bay's first road game. The kickoff whistle hasn't been blown and yet, we have a prediction: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will start the season with a record of 4 – 0 or  3 – 1. The world knows why Tom Brady is back: he has unfinished business in the form of another Super Bowl ring.

We believe his journey to the big dance will begin with a win over the Cowboys.

Last year's injuries, including Chris Godwin's ACL tear, took a toll on the Bucs. Despite this, Tampa Bay was oh-so-close to getting to the final Super Bowl he so covets. This year, they open up the regular season in Dallas and are two point favorites against the Cowboys at the top online sportsbooks. The money line is – 130. And the Buccaneers are now the 2nd favorites to win Super Bowl LVII at +850.

Early Lines provided by BetOnline
Dallas Cowboys             +2 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   -2 (-110)

Over 52 Points -110
Under 52 Points -110

On paper, this looks easy like an easy wager.

Over his career, Brady is undefeated versus Dallas at 6 - 0 and given how the match-up of Buccaneer offensive line vs the front four of Dallas looks, TB12 will have plenty of time to pick apart the Cowboy defense. Speaking to each team's offense, Dallas traded away Amari Cooper and Tampa Bay won't have Chris Godwin for the first week and beyond as he completes his recovery and rehab from ACL surgery. Even still, both teams have strong running backs and lightning-fast receivers. Unfortunately, these tools won't help Dak Prescott, as he can't measure up to Brady's performance standards. In our estimation, all of this should make Tampa Bay at Dallas a great game to watch and bet.

We are the last to write that Rob Gronkowski has retired, but will turn that around and be the first one to say we fully expect him to be back about 12 to 14 days before the start of the season. He can have the summer off without any interruption of the press and their 15 questions a day about playing one more year. He has no reason to turn down $10-12M for the upcoming season. As it's been documented over time, Gronk has saved his money, is happy, in love, and has been able to provide for his big family. Plus, he has 40+ years to be retired. Now, he has secured some peace and quiet for the next 8 weeks. If Brady can retire and come back, so can Gronk.

Brady has a healthy Scotty Miller coming back this season. In 2020, he made a bunch of clutch catches down the stretch. After being out with an injury for most of 2021, we see 2022 being a big year for this new rising star. 

All in all, this should be a close game, but the Buccaneers know how to win. Keep an eye on this one, especially as it pertains to preseason injuries. We never hope for any to occur, but they do. Presently, we love the money line of -130 on Tampa Bay. 

Our next post will look at Green Bay's opener against the Vikings in Minnesota. Stay tuned!

Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group for more betting tips and NFL wagering advice.