Free Prop Bet for SBLVIII

The sportsbooks in Vegas tell you who they believe is the favorite for this weekend’s Super Bowl. They make the odds, money line, over/under picks, they even come up with crazy bets called proposition bets. We, the public, can bet on anything and everything going on in this game. These props are based upon data, stats, and greed. Sometimes Vegas gets it wrong. We believe there’s a great prop to play: the over/under number on whether the opening kickoff will result in a touchback is our Super Bowl Lock Proposition Wager.

If you think there is going to be a Touchback to start the game, the line is -280 in most of the big Sportsbooks on the Strip. If the kick is run out, the line is +200.The bet sounds crazy until you look at the two head coaches, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan.     

Andy wants you pinned and will not risk the chance of a runback. He prefers to defer the opening kick, then close out the first half with a score, and start the second half with the ball.

Kyle Shanahan has seen it all, especially when he and the Atlanta Falcons were on the short end of the Tom Brady 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI. He was also the HC with the 49ers and ahead by 10 points in the 4th quarter when KC came back to win Super Bowl LIV. If the 49ers win the coin toss, they’ll want the ball.

The Chiefs defense, under the guidance of Steve Spagnuolo, has been exceptional, and we expect them to try to confuse Purdy at the line. Perhaps with his age, the magnitude of the game might force him to misread the defense and cause a turnover.

We decided to look back into every game played this past season by both Kansas City and San Francisco, focusing on their strategies for kickoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs 2023

Week 1 – Detroit at KC Opening Kick went to the back of the end zone: Touchback
Week 2 – KC at Jacksonville Opening Kick went to the back of the end zone: Touchback
Week 3 – Chicago at KC 2nd Half Kick went to the back of the end zone: Touchback
Week 4 – KC at NY Jets 2nd Half Kick was through the end zone: Touchback
Week 5 – KC at Minnesota (Dome) Opening Kick went through the end zone: Touchback
Week 6 – Denver at KC Opening Kick went through the end zone: Touchback
Week 7 – LA Chargers at KC Opening Kick, sailed to the end zone: Touchback
Week 8 – KC at Denver 2nd Half Kick went to the back of the end zone: Touchback
Week 9 – Miami at KC (Germany) 2nd Half Kick went to the back of end zone: Touchback
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Philadelphia at KC 2nd Half Kick went to the back of the end zone: Touchback
Week 12 – KC at Las Vegas Opening Kick sailed thru the end zone: Touchback
Week 13 – KC at Green Bay Opening Kick went through the end zone: Touchback
Week 14 – Buffalo at KC 2nd Half Kick went to the back of End Zone: Touchback
Week 15 – KC at New England Opening kick in light rain went to the 8 yard line and run back.
*The ball may have been slippery*
Week 16 – Las Vegas at KC 2nd Half Kick went past the end zone: Touchback
Week 17 - Cincinnati at KC 2nd Half Kick went in the end zone: Touchback
Week 18 – KC at LA Chargers The starters were rested, and the ball went to the goal line,
giving the players on special teams some work before the two week bye for being # 1 seed.

Divisional Week
KC at Buffalo The weather was freezing, and the winds were 30 mph.
Buffalo kicked off against the wind to the 4 yard line.

Conference Championship
KC at Baltimore Opening Kick, back of the end zone: Touchback

Over the course of 19 games, KC had 16 touch backs. As noted above, the other three didn’t happen because of either the weather or the starters getting rested.

Comparatively, the 49ers’ kicker had 13 touchbacks for the year. Let’s look back at San Francisco’s season record and see when those touchbacks occurred.

San Francisco 49ers 2023

Week 1 – SF at Pittsburgh Opening Kick went deep into the end zone: Touchback
Week 2 – SF at LA Rams 2nd Half Kick to the 1 yard line
Week 3 – NY Giants at SF 2nd Half Kick went to the end zone: Touchback
Week 4 – Arizona at SF Opening Kick went to the end zone: Touchback
Week 5 – Dallas at SF 2nd Half Kick to the 6 yard line
Week 6 – SF at Cleveland 2nd Half Kick to the 5 yard line
Week 7 – SF at Minnesota (Dome) Fair Catch: Touchback
Week 8 – Cincinnati at SF 2nd Half Kick went to the end zone. Touchback
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – SF at Jacksonville Opening Kick into the end zone: Touchback
Week 11 – Tampa Bay at SF 2nd Half Kick to the 1 yard line
Week 12 – SF at Seattle 2nd Half Kick went to the end zone: Touchback
Week 13 – SF at Philadelphia Opening Kick went to the end zone: Touchback
Week 14 – Seattle at SF 2nd Half Kick to the goal line
Week 15 – SF at Arizona Opening kick to the end zone: Touchback
Week 16 – Baltimore at SF Opening Kick to the 5 yard line
Week 17 - SF at Washington 2nd Half Kick to the end zone: Touchback
Week 18 – LA Rams at SF 2nd Half Kick to the end zone: Touchback

Divisional Week
Green Bay at SF Opening Kick (during a heavy rain) to the 7 yard line

Conference Championship
Detroit at SF Opening Kick, back of the end zone. Touchback

Neither team is going to let the other one have an opportunity to run the ball back to start this game. It’s worth noting the Super Bowl will be inside a domed stadium. These veteran Head Coaches will tell their kickers to kill it on the opening play. Lay the – 280 and be a winner. If you decide to make a big play, cash it and bet the game on live wagering if you desire.

Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group and website pfww.vegas for more betting tips and NFL wagering advice.