Free Pick for the Saints at Rams on TNF.

For the first two months, we watched each team in the NFL form an identity. We saw them come together or, in many cases, not at all. This season, more than in recent memory, we’ve seen a lot of QBs get hurt which, in turn, has made this one of the most fascinating and entertaining seasons in many years. We are now deep in the do-or-die weeks (aka the last three weeks of the regular season) where we can see who’s healthy, who has to win, who is good/not so good, and, most importantly, who has the home field advantage. This last detail is key because the players are tired, beat up, and are happy to be home in the winter.

Two weeks ago (Week 14), home teams won 9 of the 16 games. Last week, the margin increased to 11 home teams. Five of these teams were Tampa Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, Baltimore and Houston. All of them are good teams fighting for their spot in the playoffs.

Thursday Night NFL Prediction

Tonight, the LA Rams are at home against the New Orleans Saints. This could be called a do-or-die game for both teams. The Rams are currently the 7th seed and in the playoffs. However, the Saints are 9th and need to keep winning. The Rams have the better Head Coach, better QB, and better overall team. Since their Week 10 bye, the Rams have gone 4-1 and averaged 32 points a game.

The Saints are 2-3 in their last five games and have not beaten a good team all year. Their seven wins were against Tennessee, Carolina (twice!), New England, Indianapolis, Chicago and the Giants. Derek Carr has a 70-86 lifetime record as a starting QB. Needless to say, we're not big fans of Carr.

The Rams are 4 point favorites to win. The money line on LA to win straight-up is -200. LA is the superior team. You can buy 1.5 points and be at -2.5 (-186 at BetOnline) or play the money line and lay 2 to 1.

The choice is yours.

Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group and website pfww.vegas for more betting tips and NFL wagering advice.