Preview and picks for the Women's Final Four and National Championship

We’re down to the Final Four in what’s been an exciting 2024 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. It concludes this Friday and Sunday evenings in Cleveland, with any number of storylines.

Alphabetically, it’s the 33-5 Connecticut Huskies (13 wins in a row), 33-4 Iowa Hawkeyes (10 wins in a row), 31-6 North Carolina State Wolfpack and 36-0 South Carolina Gamecocks going after the title. Three of those teams aren't surprising, but the ladies of Raleigh, preseason eighth in the Atlantic Coast Conference, are on quite the run.

Here’s a look at the current odds of the quartet to win the championship, with a breakdown of the two semifinals

Odds to Win the National Championship

It’s not a stunner that the undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks are huge, minus-money (-215) favorites to close the sale, according to women’s college basketball championship odds. South Carolina is trying to complete the hat trick, winning the tourney in both 2017 and 2022.

Iowa is the second choice at 13-4 (+325), while the 11-time champion UConn Huskies are 15-2 (+750). The outlier Wolfpack are 14-1 (+1400) to complete what would be an improbable task.

Gamecocks vs. Wolfpack

Friday’s pair of semifinals begins with the top-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks as 11.5 point favorite (total at 139.5) over the North Carolina State Wolfpack.  

Kamilla Cardoso (14.1 points. 9.4 rebounds per game leads the Gamecocks, whose average margin of victory has been just under 30 points. Add in a stifling defense (opponents are shooting barely 32 percent), and it’s not been a fair fight very often.

NC State has some balance, with Aziaha James (16.7 points/game) and Saniya Rivers (12.7 points/ game) leading the offense. Having defeated the top-seeded Texas Longhorns in its region, this is a team playing with all sorts of house money entering the Final Four. 

We don't suggest the 'Pack can down the Gamecocks (moneyline is South Carolina -850, North Carolina St. at +435), but we’re taking the points in this one. 

Hawkeyes vs. Huskies

Avenging last season's title-game loss to Louisiana State, in this season’s regional-final game, the Iowa Hawkeyes now draw the Connecticut Huskies in the second semifinal. 

Suggesting that the Hawkeyes’ Caitlin Clark (41 points in Elite Eight win over LSU) is the face of the ladies’ game would be stating the obvious. The sport’s all-time leading scorer (team-leading 32 points, 7.3 rebounds, nine assists/game) is off to the WNBA after this, making the job of any future Hawkeye opponents so much easier that it’s not funny. 

Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin each contribute more than 13 points/game. 

Clark, ironically, wanted to go Connecticut, but wasn't offered a scholarship.  

Connecticut, downing top-seeded Southern Cal in Portland to win its region, has its own star in Paige Bueckers (22 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists/game). In the four tournament games, Buckers has scored 112 points (36 rebounds, 20 assists). Aaliyah Edwards adds 17.6 points and a team-leading 9.3 rebounds/game.

Iowa is a 2.5 point favorite (total at 162.5), as per women’s college basketball odds. Moneyline is Hawkeyes -145, Huskies at +105. 
There’s no way to stop Clark, so we’re taking the Hawkeyes.

Women's National Championship - Clark and Iowa

South Carolina is the best team in the country, but this just feels like it’s the time of Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes. While the Gamecocks try to slow down Clark, that’s been the rather unsuccessful ambition of any number of opponents. 

Go with Iowa Sunday evening.