Like another New Years Eve, another Super Bowl Sunday is now upon us. Will you be doing many things you normally don't do the previous 20 Sundays of the season? Like for example, wagering on football propositions, more commonly known as "prop bets".
If so, you'll have lots of company. For where the standard point spread or game total line is acceptable for an average NFL Sunday or even a playoff weekend, the Super Bowl one-game feast offers more than 300 different proposition bets for you to consider, eagerly served every game minute by the most reputable offshore sportsbooks including Bookmaker, BetOnline and Bovada.
Prop Betting in Moderaton
This isn't to discourage you from playing a limited number of props but a plea to remind you that only investing in moderation will insure any measure of success. And please remember the most important fundamental rule: The proposition odds are not established by the customary rules of -110 or 10% vigorish for basic point spread or over/under game wagering. But conversely what the market will bear, which in this case is a poor value compared to the average NFL Sunday. Again, the best comparison is New Years Eve, when drinks and food prices are doubled to accommodate market demand.
Subsequently, it's also an opportunity for sportsbooks to utilize previous data and marketing research to understand bettors demands in fixing the most favorable odds. As an example, it is a proven fact that the public prefers betting "YES" and "OVER" on the average prop bet when offered a selection. You will often pay the price for those selections in being forced to accepting higher odds and unfavorable value as a result.
History of Prop Betting
It's interesting but the history of proposition wagering actually began several years ago in Nevada to keep the parties going in Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks and action flowing as the Super Bowl increased in popularity. While crowds jammed sportsbooks on location, it was a novel way to focus attention upon the game quarter by quarter. A way to keep people locked-in on certain players (pre-fantasy wagering days) and not ending "the party" simply by having only two bets or "two entrees" on the menu. From there it has exploded upon the online wagering scene and become a traditonal custom associated with the Super Bowl.
From that "menu" of over 300 entrees, here are the 4 best choices I would recommend to put on your plate:
But first, I would recommend comparison shopping among a list of reputable sportsbook for the most favorable odds for your selections. The following list of recommended wagers and current odds for these selected propositons were obtained from Elite-rated Bovada.lv.
FOUR PREFERRED SUPER BOWL PROPOSITON BETS:
Will there be a score in the final 2:00 minutes of the first half?
Yes - 285
No + 225
This has always been my top Super Bowl prop selection and always will be. The problem is the books have noticed and have adjusted the line accordingly. What used to be Yes -150 has now ballooned to -285 because there is approximately a 90% chance of this outcome occurring. Add in the quick strike 2-minute offense potential of QB's Tom Brady and Russell Wilson and I remain confident in this Best Bet.
Team to score first wins the game.
Yes - 165
No + 135
This is simply a "take a flyer" bet because of the pick-em game line odds and the better value. This should be an even or -110 bet both ways. No scientific, historical or statistical edge here. Just go for it and root that it can happen at favorable odds.
Who will be the Super Bowl MVP?
Tom Brady: 2-1
Russell Wilson 7-2
*From a list of approximately 30 offered and "a field" bet, the Super Bowl MVP almost certainly is the winning quarterback, offering the opportunity for glamour interviews, endorsements and billions of dollars of NFL publicity. With these two "Hollywood-type" QB's in the spotlight, this bet offers a great opportunity to make (2) bets on the same proposition with the chance of returning a nice profit, especially if Wilson and the Seahawks win.
Will Marshawn Lynch score a Touchdown in the game?
Yes: - 200
No: + 160
Again, very unfavorable odds but an almost certainty under these playing conditions. Lynch has remained healthy and is the most important part of the Seahawks chances of winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots may negate their average receivers in the red zone, making only Russell Wilson the other major threat scoring a touchdown.
Good luck on Super Bowl Sunday and remember to "prop in moderation". And please keep in mind the NCAA Tournament is only six to seven short weeks away!