Presidential Election Odds Don’t Reflect Latest Polls

It is less than two weeks until Election Day and the race for the next President of the United States is VERY tight according to most recent pools. However, odds makers around the globe have Barack Obama as a pretty large favorite at better than 2-1 odds to win the Presidential election. Why the big

It is less than two weeks until Election Day and the race for the next President of the United States is VERY tight according to most recent pools. However, odds makers around the globe have Barack Obama as a pretty large favorite at better than 2-1 odds to win the Presidential election. Why the big disparity between what the polls say and what the online bookmakers are posting as thier Presidential odds.

One of the reasons are the debates. After each debate the line has moved slightly towards the candidate that was given the ‘win’ in that night’s debate. After Monday’s debate in Florida, Obama surged past the 2-1 in the Presidential betting odds. Online bookmaker Bovada is one of several books that offers odds on the Presidential election. They currently have the Democratic Party at -210, down slightly from the post debate line of -215. “When looking at our odds Monday’s debate proved to be a decent gain for Obama moving from -180 to -200 and early money Tuesday morning on the Democrats had already moved it to -215,” said Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager at Bovada.

Bradley added, “Overall 65% of the money has come in on Romney and the Republicans but with 2 weeks till the election I expect it to get closer to 50/50.”

In addition to the overall election result Bovada as well as 5Dimes have lines up for how the betting will go in individual states, covering all of the so-called ‘battleground’ states. These state prop bets are where there are some huge numbers and an upset could result in a nice payout. Both online sportsbooks are offering ‘The Party to win the Popular vote’ in the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hamshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. 5Dimes adds in Pennsylvania and North Carolina as well.

You could actually do a bit of handicapping for these Political proposition bets. A quick check of several of the latest polls shows the overall race almost neck-in-neck. But the ‘battleground’ states are a different story. Obama leads most of these states with a margin of 3% in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin while Iowa and Ohio are more than 2% and New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia are all between a half and 1.5 %. Romney leads in just two states Florida (1.5%) and North Carolina (2.3%).

Trying to find any value might not be an option. The odds for winning some of the states with the largest margins in the polls are huge. Obama is the listed favortie at -350 in both Nevada and Wisconsin at Bovada. While Romney is a whopping -650 at 5Dimes to win North Carolina. According to oddsmakers the closest races are in Virginia, Iowa and New Hampshire. The best value for Obama on the board, when taking the poll figure into account is Iowa where the President sits between -180 and -190, yet leads in the polls by 2.5%. Kinda makes you think the Presidential oddsmakers know something . . .

In comparing odds at several online sportsbooks, this is one event where it will be advantageous to shop for the best number. A quick perusal of several Elite-rated sportsbooks shows a difference of up to 30 cents in the lines. The candidate you vote for may not be the winner on November 6, but you can still cash in on your opponent! Check the latest pools to do a bit of handicapping, shop the number and sit back and collect, whether Democrat or Republican on November 6.

To get a Free $50 bet on the winning party of the Presidential Election, click here.

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