The Indianapolis Colts have done a fine job of adapting to life without Peyton Manning these past two seasons. This Sunday they’ll have to face the music when they host the future Hall of Famer and his Super Bowl favorite Denver Broncos. Not only do the Broncos hold the 7-point advantage on the NFL lines heading into Week 7, they’re the top team on the Super Bowl futures at Elite Rated Bovada at 5/2 (+250).

Two weeks ago we told the story of how the public this year has loved betting on the Broncos, not matter what the spread. The public has also been hammering the over betting total, forcing the line to go up and up every week in the Broncos games. the biggest disparity in this game is the Colts are 4-2 cashing the under this season, while the Broncos have gone over the total in all six of their games. However, this week their opponent is also a home underdog, always a great betting scenario. Especially if you throw in this fact: the Colts are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, including just two weeks ago when the Colts shocked the number two Super Bowl favorite, Seattle Seahawks in Indy, 34-28.

According to Elite-rated BetOnline.ag about 66% of the early action is on the Broncos (-6.5). However, as has been widely reported, the Broncos took about 80% of the action last week against the Jaguars and failed to cover. In fact, the Broncos have not cashed for bettors since their 52-20 blowout of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4.

Their 0-2 records ATS in October  is due to the terrible pass defense of the Broncos who are 32nd in the league. Many pundits say their #1 ranking against the run is the flip side of that coin but when teams are getting blown out week after week, they tend to abandon the rush.

Let’s face the facts before we plunk down money on either of these teams. Both clubs have been average against the number this season, each posting 3-3 ATS marks. The Colts posted impressive upsets of San Francisco and Seattle, but faltered last week. The Broncos are 6-0 but have not made bettors very happy so far this season.

Though players have been hammering OVER in the Broncos games, the total for Sunday night has been going down since it opened at 56.5. Some of the reasons? The Colts defense has allowed just 16.3 points per game this season and so far has yielded just over 200 yards per game against the pass, good enough for 5th in the league. The Colts also know that they way to beat Peyton Manning is to keep him off of the field. Everyone expects the Colts to run Trent Richardson all day and use that to setup their pass game. If they are successful, this game goes under the inflated total. Since it’s already down to 55.5 at some sports betting shops, grab it at 56 if you agree. Or head to a Las Vegas sportsbook where 57 is appearing on tote boards all over town.

The current NFL odds point to the visiting Super Bowl contenders as favorites in the contest, but with an inevitably fired up Colts crowd behind them, Andrew Luck and company could play spoiler.

Check back every week for more from Behind the Lines.